Micah Parsons traded to Green Bay

[Erial_Lion]

I think that some overlook the fact that it's not just the trade/picks, but also the new contact. Green Bay is basically giving up a player and two first rounders to get him for a year at 21 million, and 4 years at 47 million, which is probably market value. Obviously a steal in 2025, but in a salary cap world, that 47 million/year matters...it will already push GB $30 million over the cap next year, which means they'll have to kick some salaries down the road, and won't have the ability to be as aggressive filling any other needs (and/or cut a few guys that might have otherwise been contributors).

I wouldn't just make the assumption that some are making that those are both late 1st rounders. Something happens to Love, and I don't really have confidence that Malik Willis is leading them to where they want to go (not to mention all of the other things that could go wrong).

 

[WestSideLion]

I think that some overlook the fact that it's not just the trade/picks, but also the new contact. Green Bay is basically giving up a player and two first rounders to get him for a year at 21 million, and 4 years at 47 million, which is probably market value. Obviously a steal in 2025, but in a salary cap world, that 47 million/year matters...it will already push GB $30 million over the cap next year, which means they'll have to kick some salaries down the road, and won't have the ability to be as aggressive filling any other needs (and/or cut a few guys that might have otherwise been contributors).

I wouldn't just make the assumption that some are making that those are both late 1st rounders. Something happens to Love, and I don't really have confidence that Malik Willis is leading them to where they want to go (not to mention all of the other things that could go wrong).

I did a poor job trying to make this point. The $47M a year is basically in anticipation of 15-18 sacks. Great production overall but you might get that same production for less $ across different players.

Then there’s a Pro Bowl DT and 2 first round picks for the $26M difference in 2025. That feels expensive to me, but a lot depends on where those picks fall and what Dallas turns them into.

 

[KingLando]

Parsons can absolutely get better. So can other DEs. Let me approach this from another angle. Here’s the NFL sack leaders over the last 4 seasons.

NFL sack leaders

Parsons is #5 with 52.5 sacks in 63 games. That’s 0.83 sacks per game. I haven’t looked at how they distribute against playoff vs bad teams. Let’s assume it’s straight line.

GB is paying $47M a year, a three-time Pro Bowl DT (albeit who is a bit older) and two 1st round draft picks for about 1 sack per game, best case.

I’d argue that’s an overpay in terms of the value they’ll get back for that total outlay.

Just the $47M a year is a record and more than anyone else on that list or who will be on the future sack leaders list. Then there’s the player and pick comp.

He’s a good player, but at a super-premium cost for GB. Parsons has to be near perfect for this deal to pay off.

In the first 4 years of his career he has the 5th most sacks over that time span...I think that's insanely impressive. Not Reggie White admittedly but nonetheless impressive especially with the mess that is Dallas.

I think we value Clark differently he barely played at a starter level last year. PFF at his at 85th I belive which isn't starter quality.

When you look at contracts you have to look at the most recent contacts at that position. It you look at Watt's contract at 30 and his at 26 it's very good IMO for GB.

I think saying he's a "good player" is a crazy understatement but...

 

[KingLando]

And GB didn’t fleece anyone given what they paid of a sack per game best case.

So, I think this is why many of us are just different pages. Parsons isn't being for "a sack per game best case". Just like Watt is paid for the sacks, the disruption and the extra blockers it requires against him to protect your QB. It's a legit game changer--it's not just about the sack numbers.

You seem to be in the minority here but maybe you're right. I just don't see it at all.

If a team drafting in the top 5 this year would have given up that pick and a future 1st for Parsons they'd have been praised for it. This is like a quarter of that.

 

[KingLando]

I think that some overlook the fact that it's not just the trade/picks, but also the new contact. Green Bay is basically giving up a player and two first rounders to get him for a year at 21 million, and 4 years at 47 million, which is probably market value. Obviously a steal in 2025, but in a salary cap world, that 47 million/year matters...it will already push GB $30 million over the cap next year, which means they'll have to kick some salaries down the road, and won't have the ability to be as aggressive filling any other needs (and/or cut a few guys that might have otherwise been contributors).

I wouldn't just make the assumption that some are making that those are both late 1st rounders. Something happens to Love, and I don't really have confidence that Malik Willis is leading them to where they want to go (not to mention all of the other things that could go wrong).

Watt's cap hit in 4 years at 34 is 46M--the cap hit isn't a big deal here. It's really not.

I'm not understanding the concern of paying a 26 Edge elite money based on production when we all saw what Watt and Garrett got

Maybe I'm lost but I don't see anyone else, anywhere else thinking GB didn't win this deal

 

[MtNittany]

Just brings to mind what a shame it is that we didn’t get to see Parsons play more at Penn State.

He's got eligibility. Maybe his 2nd option was for Blaise Alexander to send him back to Happy Valley.

 

[dcf4psu]

IMO a terrible trade for Green Bay, and a very good one for the Cowboys.

 

[nittanyfan333]

The smart thing to do would be to package their two firsts each of the next 2 years to move up. Their own pick will probably be mid round and the pack pick will probably be 23-27ish. Package and move up top 5. QB this year and trade Dak to rebuild with a new QB, then whatever next year.

Just please god not Allar….

on the other side, GB, super young team, just tied up a TON of cash they’re gonna need over the next few years for their own young guys contracts. Totally a win now move

 

[Erial_Lion]

The smart thing to do would be to package their two firsts each of the next 2 years to move up. Their own pick will probably be mid round and the pack pick will probably be 23-27ish. Package and move up top 5. QB this year and trade Dak to rebuild with a new QB, then whatever next year.

Just please god not Allar….

Trading Dak would escalate all of his bonus $ onto Dallas, which would mean something like a $90 million dead cap hit. And with his contract, they'd be getting nothing for him. That isn't happening.

 

[KingLando]

IMO a terrible trade for Green Bay, and a very good one for the Cowboys.

Do people here just dislike Parsons?
I don't understand what's happening lol

 

[WestSideLion]

The smart thing to do would be to package their two firsts each of the next 2 years to move up. Their own pick will probably be mid round and the pack pick will probably be 23-27ish. Package and move up top 5. QB this year and trade Dak to rebuild with a new QB, then whatever next year.

Just please god not Allar….

Jerry may be thinking Arch Manning. The Cowboys weren’t looking great with Parsons. Their picks could be in the top 10 the next two years. They’ll have lots of assets to move up if they want to.

 

[WestSideLion]

Do people here just dislike Parsons?
I don't understand what's happening lol

Fabulous player. Let’s be clear. It’s the $47M a year salary and all the other assets given up that muddle things.

All I’m saying is that this isn’t a slam dunk win for GB. It’s more even than most think.

 

[94LionsFan]

Players I expect to be similarly productive to Parsons over the next 4 years:

• Nick Bosa
• TJ Watt
• Myles Garrett
• Will Anderson

There will likely be more. There aren’t many of them, but being generational means being heads and shoulders above your contemporary.

Parsons is a top player at a premium position, but GB paid a heavy price for him. I’m interested in Bill Barnwell’s take on total expected surplus value for the trade.

I’d throw in Maxx Crosby and Aiden Hutchinson.

 

[Tom McAndrew]

 

[Erial_Lion]

Watt's cap hit in 4 years at 34 is 46M--the cap hit isn't a big deal here. It's really not.

It's about 16% of their total cap number next year. Having a player at that number obviously impacts what you can do everywhere else. Many will ignore that aspect of things, or argue that he's worth it...but it makes a pretty big impact in the grand scheme, and tough for me to see him being a bargain at that price.

 

[KingLando]

Fabulous player. Let’s be clear. It’s the $47M a year salary and all the other assets given up that muddle things.

All I’m saying is that this isn’t a slam dunk win for GB. It’s more even than most think.

That's just the going rate for edge
The assets aren't anything. It's a DT that USED to be good but below average last year that's older. And two first round picks, barring something insane, aren't going to be top 10-15 picks.
On paper, this is a huge win for Green Bay--now things don't always work out but, as of today, Green Bay fleeced them.
And the money isn't even all guaranteed...
Watt has a cap hit of 46M when he's 34--this money isn't a big deal--it's just isn't.
Again, I don't know--I don't see the negative here at all.

 

[KingLando]

It's about 16% of their total cap number next year. Having a player at that number obviously impacts what you can do everywhere else. Many will ignore that aspect of things, or argue that he's worth it...but it makes a pretty big impact in the grand scheme, and tough for me to see him being a bargain at that price.

Yes, an elite edge, which he is, is worth that cap hit.
Having elite players doesn't have to be at a bargain. That's not realistic.
They traded an aging, underperforming NT and (LIKELY) two first round pick outside the top 10 at least for a 26 years old pass rusher coming off 52.5 sacks in his first 4 years.
If this isn't a great trade for Green Bay then none exist.

 

[WestSideLion]

That's just the going rate for edge
The assets aren't anything. It's a DT that USED to be good but below average last year that's older. And two first round picks, barring something insane, aren't going to be top 10-15 picks.
On paper, this is a huge win for Green Bay--now things don't always work out but, as of today, Green Bay fleeced them.
And the money isn't even all guaranteed...
Watt has a cap hit of 46M when he's 34--this money isn't a big deal--it's just isn't.
Again, I don't know--I don't see the negative here at all.

If “going rate” is blowing by the 3-month old record annual salary by 20%, then so be it. They took the bar, hopped in a helicopter, flew to 5,000 feet and placed it. The cap will continue to increase so in 2-3 years this may not look as big. But GB took some big risks here.

 

[KingLando]

If “going rate” is blowing by the 3-month old record annual salary by 20%, then so be it. They took the bar, hopped in a helicopter, flew to 5,000 feet and placed it. The cap will continue to increase so in 2-3 years this may not look as big. But GB took some big risks here.

It's contract isn't all guaranteed. It's the same cap hit as Watt.
We know that each contract be more than the one prior to it.
He's 26--wouldn't it stand to reason that he's going to get more than Watt or Garrett who, in theory, should decline while he's entering his prime.
There's risk in any move--but they got, at worst, a top 5 edge in the NFL for very, very little.
I give up--I just don't get it at all. But, we'll see. I've been wrong before.
I actually think this makes the Luca trade look decent--that's how bad it is
But you also think Kenny Clark is a solid addition where I think he's washed.

 

[WestSideLion]

It's contract isn't all guaranteed. It's the same cap hit as Watt.
We know that each contract be more than the one prior to it.
He's 26--wouldn't it stand to reason that he's going to get more than Watt or Garrett who, in theory, should decline while he's entering his prime.
There's risk in any move--but they got, at worst, a top 5 edge in the NFL for very, very little.
I give up--I just don't get it at all. But, we'll see. I've been wrong before.
I actually think this makes the Luca trade look decent--that's how bad it is
But you also think Kenny Clark is a solid addition where I think he's washed.

Based on your logic, at only 26, the Packers hope the deal is guaranteed. The “cheaper” later years are where a lot of the value lies.

But, if Parsons plays well, his agent will come knocking for $55m a year in 2028.

 

[WestSideLion]

Robert Williams is great.

 

[KingLando]

Based on your logic, at only 26, the Packers hope the deal is guaranteed. The “cheaper” later years are where a lot of the value lies.

But, if Parsons plays well, his agent will come knocking for $55m a year in 2028.

But he should, right? Isn't that what everyone does?
My "logic" is that this deal for a 26 yo edge entering his prime isn't a bad deal and doesn't negate how little they gave up to get him
You find more value in Clark and the picks. You think it's too much money. That's cool--I just don't see it but only time will tell.

 

[WestSideLion]

But he should, right? Isn't that what everyone does?
My "logic" is that this deal for a 26 yo edge entering his prime isn't a bad deal and doesn't negate how little they gave up to get him
You find more value in Clark and the picks. You think it's too much money. That's cool--I just don't see it but only time will tell.

Good read here and summarizes much of my view.

ESPN Analysis

 

[KingLando]

Good read here and summarizes much of my view.

ESPN Analysis

This has the deal closer than the others but still Green Bay winning fairly easily
There's things in this article that strongly support my argument too for example
"Since 2021, Parsons has had a 30% pass rush win rate (meaning he beat his blocker within 2.5 seconds 30% of the time). That blows every other player out of the water, including Myles Garrett, who was second at 26%."
I think the disconnect here is viewing it as "the right to pay" Parsons. I don't see it that way at all. The deal and the contract are separate things for me. Green Bay had no other way to get a player at the level of Parsons. Parson wasn't going to hit the open market until 2028.

 

[Nittering Nabob]

Jerry Jones didn’t become a billionaire by being stupid (eg Arkoma Resources). I thought he was losing it mentally, but his press conference today suggested otherwise.

The Cowboys are well positioned (draft picks + salary shaving) except for their boneheaded decision to re-sign Dak.

 

[WestSideLion]

This has the deal closer than the others but still Green Bay winning fairly easily
There's things in this article that strongly support my argument too for example
"Since 2021, Parsons has had a 30% pass rush win rate (meaning he beat his blocker within 2.5 seconds 30% of the time). That blows every other player out of the water, including Myles Garrett, who was second at 26%."
I think the disconnect here is viewing it as "the right to pay" Parsons. I don't see it that way at all. The deal and the contract are separate things for me. Green Bay had no other way to get a player at the level of Parsons. Parson wasn't going to hit the open market until 2028.

It’s all about the opportunity cost of the cap space and draft comp. This is how the business world functions.

 

[KingLando]

It’s all about the opportunity cost of the cap space and draft comp. This is how the business world functions.

But it's not--the Cowboys attempted to go all in with Dak and then adding Pickens
And now they trade their best defensive player for an aging NT and future assets which, as your link agrees, likely will be late picks
In the business world you want known assets like Parsons and you're even probably willing to overpay them (assuming he is) because to understand the likelihood of finding another player of that talent where you're likely drafting
If Dallas doesn't make the playoffs this year the traded failed--they're trying to win now.

 

[MacNit]

I guess his injury is suddenly cured?

 

[MtNittany]

IMO a terrible trade for Green Bay, and a very good one for the Cowboys.

I think the only bad part of it for GB is the $$. That's a big contract.

 

[NewEra 2014]

Jerry Jones didn’t become a billionaire by being stupid (eg Arkoma Resources). I thought he was losing it mentally, but his press conference today suggested otherwise.

The Cowboys are well positioned (draft picks + salary shaving) except for their boneheaded decision to re-sign Dak.

I’m not a Cowboy fan at all. But as a neutral observer, I have always thought that the Dak contract was going to hamstring that organization for years. I have never thought Dak was more than a middling QB who Dallas was paying as though he is a top QB.

 

[Erial_Lion]

I’m not a Cowboy fan at all. But as a neutral observer, I have always thought that the Dak contract was going to hamstring that organization for years. I have never thought Dak was more than a middling QB who Dallas was paying as though he is a top QB.

Couldn't agree more...it tough to win when you're paying a top 10-15 QB the $$$ of a top 3-5 QB. And whole kicking the can down the road strategy ends up catching up eventually.

 

[EricStratton-RushChairman]

Can't wait to listen to Dallas sports talk radio in the morning...

 

[Wow]

The goal is to win a Super Bowl. Parsons

It’s all about the opportunity cost of the cap space and draft comp. This is how the business world functions.

It’s about winning a Super Bowl. Parsons instantly upgrades their defense. They have a good offense and they are taking their shot at a championship with this move. Good for them.

 

[Bvillebaron]

Don't need that ego on my team.

The person with an ego problem is Jones.

 

[Bvillebaron]

From the Packers perspective, they gave up one first rounder and a DT. They'll look at it as Parsons being an excellent replacement for the 2026 first rounder. Maybe the return for Dallas was paltry because GB agreed to take on so much salary with the extension. The contract aside, Jerry got owned with this deal. It is absolutely nothing like the Herschel Walker deal in which Dallas got three years of first AND second round picks from Minnesota.

The Packers gave up two first rounders. What the hell are talking about?

 

[Bvillebaron]

Players I expect to be similarly productive to Parsons over the next 4 years:

• Nick Bosa
• TJ Watt
• Myles Garrett
• Will Anderson

There will likely be more. There aren’t many of them, but being generational means being heads and shoulders above your contemporary.

Parsons is a top player at a premium position, but GB paid a heavy price for him. I’m interested in Bill Barnwell’s take on total expected surplus value for the trade.

LMAO.

 

[Bvillebaron]

Trading Dak would escalate all of his bonus $ onto Dallas, which would mean something like a $90 million dead cap hit. And with his contract, they'd be getting nothing for him. That isn't happening.

Yes the Cowboys salary hell is due to the self-proclaimed smartest man in the room, Jerrah Jones, twice waiting too long to sign Prescott to new contracts and then overpaying for a QB who puts up numbers against mediocre or worse defenses and folds like a cheap suit against good defenses and in the playoffs. Aikman said that Dak told him after the playoff disaster against Green Bay that he was hyperventilating during that game. That’s a synonym for choking.

 

[Bvillebaron]

It's about 16% of their total cap number next year. Having a player at that number obviously impacts what you can do everywhere else. Many will ignore that aspect of things, or argue that he's worth it...but it makes a pretty big impact in the grand scheme, and tough for me to see him being a bargain at that price.

See my other post. Dallas’ salary cap hell is due to Jones over paying Prescott twice. Worse yet the second time he folded he gave Dak a no trade clause.

 

[Bvillebaron]

I guess his injury is suddenly cured?

And Jones’ massive ego and arrogance remain intact.

 

[Bvillebaron]

I’m not a Cowboy fan at all. But as a neutral observer, I have always thought that the Dak contract was going to hamstring that organization for years. I have never thought Dak was more than a middling QB who Dallas was paying as though he is a top QB.