Moorhead will be fine

[Ibdancin]

There will be some staff adjustments, but Moorhead isn't really the problem. I know that for years, fans have complained about the play of our WRs. Moorhead comes here and most think that's a solved issue right away when reality, we should have all known it would not. I'm going to give a few examples and comparisons of the changes to that aspect.


Mullen's last year (not bashing Mullen just pointing out facts):

- Fitz threw for 1782 yards and completed 55%
- 27 is the number of catches the best WR had. 2nd was 24, 3rd was 22 (side note... all of these would be gone in Moohead's 1st year, and Jackson never really was the same after his injury)
- 1 x1000 yard back

Moorhead this year(not bashing or praising) with 3 or 4 games left including our fcs game:

- Our starters (including a truefresman) already has 1717 yards with those 4 games left.
- Sr vs Sr, When healthy Stevens is throwing at 74.5% (that's all 3 games where he was legit healthy).. Not healthy included, he's throwing for 63.5%
- Shrader is throwing at 55.1% and that includes those games coming in off the bench for Stevens.

- Wrs, the top guy is 1 reception off from the last year of Mullen yet has over 100 yards more with those 4 games left. The next guy is 2 catches off that of the Mullen year with 80 more yards. That's 2 guys with over the 300 yards each with those games left.... not one reached 300 in the last year of Mullen. The top 4 guys are averaging 15 yards per catch. That's 5 yards more per receiver than the top 4 for Mullen in his last year.

- Already have a 1000 yard back with those same 3 to 4 games left.



We don't know what could have happened with a healthy Stevens. But we do know that when he went down, he was not the same guy until this week. We do know what happened even when he was hurt and the results of the passing game =s improvement. Because of his ability and his offense, he's attracting better recruits to the WR position and has shown he can coach up what was left.

I'm sure we could talk about other things, but just wanted to compare the notes from 2017 to his Qbs and system

 

[Nunya.sixpack]

Do we really have this many fans not watching?

 

[Carbaryl]

Thomas is that you?

 

[msstatelp1]

Stats are good and fine but we got most of them against bad teams. My biggest concern is our lack of competitiveness against decent and good teams. We consistently have had an almost Keystone Cop like performance when playing those teams.

 

[Strike.sixpack]

I understand the Fitz comparisons of his last year under Mullen and Moorehead’s first year, that is sequential. But if you get to pick this year for a comparison of Moorehead’s QB’s then you have to pick Mullen’s best fit at QB. You are being selective for your comparison is giving a false comp. Let’s slap Dak’s 2014 or 2015 numbers up against this year. Don’t think that will look very good.

 

[ronpolk]

I don’t think anyone would argue that the players we have don’t fit what joe wants to do. However, a good coach would figure out how to be better with the players he has. Moorehead has no ability to adjust his offense, which to me makes him a not so great coach.

 

[Ibdancin]

Do we really have this many fans not watching?

I'm just saying the proof is on Hailstate.com

 

[Ibdancin]

I understand the Fitz comparisons of his last year under Mullen and Moorehead’s first year, that is sequential. But if you get to pick this year for a comparison of Moorehead’s QB’s then you have to pick Mullen’s best fit at QB. You are being selective for your comparison is giving a false comp. Let’s slap Dak’s 2014 or 2015 numbers up against this year. Don’t think that will look very good.

Moorhead wasn't given a Dak. He also wasn't given that team. I guess we could wait on Moorhead to get his team around him in 2021 and 2022 to make that kind of comparison. Showing improvement in the passing game through the transition period is valid though.

 

[blacklistedbully]

We also know Arkansas is a really really really bad football team. Because of that we should know they are not a good measuring stick to determine how good Stevens is or isn't.

 

[Strike.sixpack]

Moorhead wasn't given a Dak. He also wasn't given that team. I guess we could wait on Moorhead to get his team around him in 2021 and 2022 to make that kind of comparison. Showing improvement in the passing game through the transition period is valid though.

What does that have to do with anything? You didn’t compare Fitz with Mullen and with Moorhead. That was a pure transition. You are stating that this year are HIS QB’s, one he brought in as a transfer but only want to pick Fitz last year with Mullen. It’s past transition at this point and it’s a comp that doesn’t tell us anything really because you a selecting who and when to compare. Heck compare both second year QB’s for the coaches. Relf attempted 216 passes, Stevens and Shrader have attempted 223. Look at those numbers and how close they are. Relf actually had a better QB rating honestly.

 

[ababyatemydingo]

TL DR

The only stat I’m concerned with is wins and losses

 

[Dawg1976]

Moorhead will have another year to prove if he will be fine or not. That is if he doesn't lose out this year. I would love for him to get the ship headed in the right direction. But like most here......I just don't see it.

 

[jethreauxdawg]

Thanks for the insight

John

 

[The Situation]

I understand the Fitz comparisons of his last year under Mullen and Moorehead’s first year, that is sequential. But if you get to pick this year for a comparison of Moorehead’s QB’s then you have to pick Mullen’s best fit at QB. You are being selective for your comparison is giving a false comp. Let’s slap Dak’s 2014 or 2015 numbers up against this year. Don’t think that will look very good.

Nope, you can't compare Mullen's absolute best QB, 6 years into his tenure, to Moorhead's second year with a transfer QB. You'll have to wait a while to do that.

What you CAN compare, is that Moorhead hit on his transfer, whereas Mullen let his slip away (Cam Newton).

You can also compare that Mullen didn't sign 'his' QB until his 3rd recruiting class, and he had to redshirt. Whereas Moorhead signed his guy immediately, and he played immediately.

You lose.

You can criticize Moorhead for many things. You should stick with the obvious ones for now.

 

[57stratdawg]

Can’t complain about the offense the last few weeks.

 

[Strike.sixpack]

Nope, you can't compare Mullen's absolute best QB, 6 years into his tenure, to Moorhead's second year with a transfer QB. You'll have to wait a while to do that.

What you CAN compare, is that Moorhead hit on his transfer, whereas Mullen let his slip away (Cam Newton).

You can also compare that Mullen didn't sign 'his' QB until his 3rd recruiting class, and he had to redshirt. Whereas Moorhead signed his guy immediately, and he played immediately.

You lose.

You can criticize Moorhead for many things. You should stick with the obvious ones for now.

I do not lose. It’s a false comparison. He was choosing away from the transition although that’s what he was saying. If you are going to say that Steven’s and Shrader are HIS guys and this is the comp...then you have to compare to Mullen’s guys...all of them not just one year of Fitz. That is an accurate comparison. Read my other post when comparing the coaches in their second year with the QB’s (Mullen was using a transition QB as well, not HIS guys like Moorehead). What are those stats? Almost identical...maybe you both lose if Relf in 2010 vs historically the strongest division ever in the strongest conference, but up those type of numbers. We are comparing Relf vs Moorehead’s QB’s and the number are the same?!? Yeah I win. Thanks for playing

 

[She Mate Me]

Arkansas was a positive. First one in a while. It in no way portends that Moorhead will be fine. He may be, but many more steps in the right direction need to happen.

He's going to get another season. That's obvious. I would really like to see him kinda earn it by getting a win in the EB.

I will say I was happy to see the players still with their coach on Saturday.

 

[Nunya.sixpack]

It in no way portends that Moorhead will be fine.

he will do fine, against really bad teams.

 

[The Situation]

I do not lose. It’s a false comparison. He was choosing away from the transition although that’s what he was saying. If you are going to say that Steven’s and Shrader are HIS guys and this is the comp...then you have to compare to Mullen’s guys...all of them not just one year of Fitz. That is an accurate comparison. Read my other post when comparing the coaches in their second year with the QB’s (Mullen was using a transition QB as well, not HIS guys like Moorehead). What are those stats? Almost identical...maybe you both lose if Relf in 2010 vs historically the strongest division ever in the strongest conference, but up those type of numbers. We are comparing Relf vs Moorehead’s QB’s and the number are the same?!? Yeah I win. Thanks for playing

There aren't any real good comparisons right now. Shrader 2019 to Dak 2012 I guess. Possibly Relf 2010 to Stevens 2019 but even those situations are very different.

The only real on-field comparison will be Dak 2014/2015 and Shrader in 2021/2022. Ultimately that's probably where Moorhead will write his legacy, unless he tanks next year and gets fired, which is likely.

 

[Strike.sixpack]

There aren't any real good comparisons right now. Shrader 2019 to Dak 2012 I guess. Possibly Relf 2010 to Stevens 2019 but even those situations are very different.

The only real on-field comparison will be Dak 2014/2015 and Shrader in 2021/2022. Ultimately that's probably where Moorhead will write his legacy, unless he tanks next year and gets fired, which is likely.

Sure you can because it’s not always going to an apples to apples comparison. It just can’t be arbitrary. You didn’t seem have that much problem with his comparison of Mullen’s JR QB in Mullen’s 9th season...the best we can do is compare them both in their second season of the program or find the closest situation to this year. 2013 with Russell being injured a lot like Stevens and an underclassman having to take over. That would be somewhat a similar situation. But if the OP is going to arbitrarily pick without definite criteria, then all years are available for comps. That’s what I am getting at. Don’t just cherry pick and try to tell me it’s during transition.

 

[TheStateUofMS]

So WR play is more important than being organized and winning games now?

 

[Cap'n Geech]

I underestimated the impact of tutor-gate before the season. I thought that we wouldn't have more than four games that were not automatic wins or losses, so play the guys in those four games, and we'll be fine. I think you can say that those suspensions could have been the difference in the Kansas State loss, and even though we had them for the Tennessee loss, the lack of continuity over the course of the season probably affected our play in that game as well. So tutor-gate probably cost us one or two wins.

We were hurt at the quarterback position by both injuries and you could argue coaching decisions. You could argue if KT is the starter we beat Kansas State, but you could also argue that he wasn't the best option long term, so it was the right decision to go with Stevens/Shrader.

These aren't excuses for the coaches, because they're paid a lot to win games no matter the circumstances, not just when everything lines up perfectly. But if we beat Ole Miss, the season isn't a complete disaster. Yes, it's disappointing and frustrating, but you make a bowl and prepare for next season. I'm optimistic about next season because we won't have to deal with tutor-gate, and with any luck, the quarterback position will be more stable. Plus, the schedule appears to be better for where we are as a program (Bama/LSU on the road instead of two of our four SEC home games).

 

[Seinfeld]

If you are of the opinion that Moorhead will be fine, that’s perfectly ok, but I’m honestly not sure what any of these stats tell us. That Moorhead’s found a couple guys that can throw it a little better than one of our worst passing QBs from the last decade? I think that was to be expected

To your point, we averaged right around 6 yds/pass attempt during Mullen’s last two years, and we’re up to 7.7 this season. That’s great progress. This is where things break down, though...

In order to improve upon completion % and our general passing game, we had to give up something on the ground, and we’ve fallen back there. Once again, something that was expected after losing Fitz. Sum it all up though, and we’re getting 407 yds/gm of total offense this year versus and average of 415 in Mullen’s last two years. So we’ve gotten worse

I honestly have no idea as to how things will look during the next year or two because there are just too many variables, but I know for a fact that Moorhead has not taken our offense from “good to great”. At absolute best, he’s maintained the status quo, and anyone trying to look for positives against a historically bad Ark team may as well use Bama as a measuring stick in a couple weeks too. Maybe Moorhead just needs more time or to get more of his guys here or whatever, but there is zero, zilch, nada data out there that indicates that his offense has been a success up to this point

 

[TBone.sixpack]

Exactly right.

 

[Ibdancin]

I do not lose. It’s a false comparison. He was choosing away from the transition although that’s what he was saying. If you are going to say that Steven’s and Shrader are HIS guys and this is the comp...then you have to compare to Mullen’s guys...all of them not just one year of Fitz. That is an accurate comparison. Read my other post when comparing the coaches in their second year with the QB’s (Mullen was using a transition QB as well, not HIS guys like Moorehead). What are those stats? Almost identical...maybe you both lose if Relf in 2010 vs historically the strongest division ever in the strongest conference, but up those type of numbers. We are comparing Relf vs Moorehead’s QB’s and the number are the same?!? Yeah I win. Thanks for playing

Again, it is valid. If not, then why are we looking for improvements or else? The transition period is what we are talking about. Not "my best QB vs your best QB". That has nothing to do with it.

 

[Ibdancin]

We also know Arkansas is a really really really bad football team. Because of that we should know they are not a good measuring stick to determine how good Stevens is or isn't.

I didn't. I put all of it out there. His starts plus the games where he tried and couldn't go. It ended up lowering his ratio by 10%

All I did was put the actual numbers out there. Mullen played these same types of teams and those are the numbers.

 

[Ibdancin]

Moorhead will have another year to prove if he will be fine or not. That is if he doesn't lose out this year. I would love for him to get the ship headed in the right direction. But like most here......I just don't see it.

I disagree on not seeing it, I do... but the rest is true. He has to prove it.

 

[Ibdancin]

So WR play is more important than being organized and winning games now?

Who said that? I certainly didn't. But I think anybody would say that we can not win in the SEC without an above average passing attack. Improving that area over Mullen is a huge step.

 

[Strike.sixpack]

Again, it is valid. If not, then why are we looking for improvements or else? The transition period is what we are talking about. Not "my best QB vs your best QB". That has nothing to do with it.

The transition period was last year with Fitz and 2 different coaches. Same QB but different coaches. That is a pure transition and you can look at the year prior with Mullen and draw a sequential comparison with his first year under Moorehead’s system. But by skipping that and wanting to compare with Mullen then it needs to be Mullen’s second year or a similar year as our situation this year or a complete analysis of every season for Mullen and Moorehead so far. Otherwise it’s just arbitrary. There is nothing sequential about it and the transition happened last year. If it is going by the HC having his QB in the system, then that also has to include Dak (Russell wasn’t a Mullen style QB and just held on to him in recruiting but he was groomed by Mullen so we can also throw him in the mix as well)

 

[campshelbydog842003]

The reason we have improved numbers on offense this year and a worse w/l record is because we get our asses kicked so early against good teams that we get to have garbage yards and points for about 2.5 quarters when we play anyone worth a ****. When Mullen was here (or last year against good teams) we played everyone’s best defense the entire game most of the time. We still suck *** on offense early in games because when teams actually care about stopping us they can whenever they want to.

 

[TheStateUofMS]

You cherry picked the worst stat to make it look like "Moorehead will be fine."

 

[NCDawg.sixpack]

he will do fine, against really bad teams.

I don't think Moorhead will be "fine" either. I was dissolutioned with Moorhead after I saw him bring an unprepared and undisciplined team to Kentucky last year. That, along with stinging defeats to Kansas State and Tennessee this year, not to mention our non-competitiveness against Auburn, makes me think that Moorhead will never be fine at State.

 

[idog]

it is pretty interesting

You cherry picked the worst stat to make it look like "Moorehead will be fine."

that so many of us think of Mullen as an offensive guru but his WR stats were that ****** that far into his tenure. it hasn't taken Moorehead anytime at all, nor much success, to improve in that area. i think that's the whole point(that most of you are missing).

the biggest issue is how many fans are quitting on this program so quickly. all the negativity is a distraction and the lack of support and chatter about firing Moorehead is going to negatively affect this program with or without Moorehead. if we lose a couple good recruits this year bc the negative publicity from our fanbase then they won't be here whenever we hire a coach from one of the half dozen "top hires" lists that get posted here every few days.

support the team or shut the 17 up. your whining isnt helping.

 

[$altyDawg]

if we lose a couple good recruits this year bc the negative publicity from our fanbase

If, and that's a huge if, they probably weren't coming here to begin with. Like it or don't, athletes or coaches don't come here to this board to decide whether or not they are going to coach or play here. I find it hard to believe a player talks with coaches on a recruiting trip, only to have said player say,"Coach, I like everything you're saying and offering, but let me go check out your fan sites and see if they are positive enough for me to come to your university". Yeah...Horseshit

support the team or shut the 17 up. your whining isnt helping.

That's right, because we all express ourselves the same way. Your whining about the whining might run off a recruit teetering on the edge...Might want to be careful about that..***

 

[Rupert Jenkins]

Disillusioned ???

 

[DoggieDaddy13]

How awesome was Relf? love that guy!

 

[Ibdancin]

The transition period was last year with Fitz and 2 different coaches. Same QB but different coaches. That is a pure transition and you can look at the year prior with Mullen and draw a sequential comparison with his first year under Moorehead’s system. But by skipping that and wanting to compare with Mullen then it needs to be Mullen’s second year or a similar year as our situation this year or a complete analysis of every season for Mullen and Moorehead so far. Otherwise it’s just arbitrary. There is nothing sequential about it and the transition happened last year. If it is going by the HC having his QB in the system, then that also has to include Dak (Russell wasn’t a Mullen style QB and just held on to him in recruiting but he was groomed by Mullen so we can also throw him in the mix as well)

No, a transition period in this case is 3 to 4 years. You don't replace an 85 man roster in a year nor teach an rpo system in a year. Second, you can compare Mullen's last year with Moorhead's first if you want. You need to make sure that there were zero changes in the roster because that 100% matters.

On things that stayed the same:

- Rushing. Was about the same even with the loss of an NFL OLman. Roughly 300 total difference.
- Defense. Was an improvement. And let's not go to anybody could have coached them... no. They couldn't have. We had Sirmon who had our guys ranked 110th, the following year Grantham had them at 10th.

Things that did not stay the same:

- Changes in the WR/TE corp were drastic. Jackson was injured and never came back to his former self, Gray and Thomas were gone. That's the top 3 receivers on the roster from Mullen's last year that Moorhead did not have. In addition to that, out of the 10 WRs on roster, 4 were not available to Moorhead and all of it was beyond his control.

- despite that, Fitz still had the same year passing. 1782 under Mullen, 1767 under Moorhead (who lacked the NFL TE and those listed above). He averaged 1.3 yards less per game, but rushed for 200 more under Moorhead.


That's not bad considering the breaking in of new corp of WRs, losing an NFL OL and TE (and the top receivers on the team)

 

[Dawgzilla]

The reason we have improved numbers on offense this year and a worse w/l record is because we get our asses kicked so early against good teams that we get to have garbage yards and points for about 2.5 quarters when we play anyone worth a ****. When Mullen was here (or last year against good teams) we played everyone’s best defense the entire game most of the time. We still suck *** on offense early in games because when teams actually care about stopping us they can whenever they want to.

Pretty sure we weren't facing UGA and Auburn's best defenses for the entire game in 2017, but otherwise your point is very valid.

Only reason I bring up 2017, is people keep comparing JoMo to Mullen, and they seem to give Mullen too much credit. JoMo has not performed as well as Mullen so far, but the gap is not as wide as a lot of us seem to think.

This season reminds me a lot of 2013, when we needed our backup QBs to pull out wins against Arkansas and UMiss to get to 6-6. Only real difference is in 2013 we almost beat Auburn.

 

[blacklistedbully]

I didn't. I put all of it out there. His starts plus the games where he tried and couldn't go. It ended up lowering his ratio by 10%

All I did was put the actual numbers out there. Mullen played these same types of teams and those are the numbers.

OK...how about we look only at stats vs the P5 teams not named UPig, since I think it's fair to consider Arky an, "outlier" given how they may well be one of the worst teams in D1, and we're trying to not put weight on that performance for purposes of this argument? Then you're looking at:

14 of 29 (48.2%) passing for 174 yards, 1 TD & 4 INT's in 3 games.

I'm much more interested in how he performs vs teams where we don't hold a significant talent advantage. Granted, his health may have played an issue in his poor performances in the above, but the point here is it is too soon with too little to go on to decide TS is, "ready for prime time"or would have been great had he been healthy. His only good games so far have been vs a historically bad Arky & 2 over-matched, out-talented non-P5 teams.

At this point, we also don't know if his poor performances might be due in part to JoMo's offense not working vs quality defenses.

 

[seb304]

Pretty sure we weren't facing UGA and Auburn's best defenses for the entire game in 2017, but otherwise your point is very valid.

Only reason I bring up 2017, is people keep comparing JoMo to Mullen, and they seem to give Mullen too much credit. JoMo has not performed as well as Mullen so far, but the gap is not as wide as a lot of us seem to think.

This season reminds me a lot of 2013, when we needed our backup QBs to pull out wins against Arkansas and UMiss to get to 6-6. Only real difference is in 2013 we almost beat Auburn.

Oh, and our 6 losses in 2013 were also to all Top 20 teams. But other than that, exactly the same.