National Seed Not Always Best Route

[615dawg]

In the last nine years, only two national seeds have won the national championship.

#3 seed LSU in 2009 and #4 South Carolina in 2011.

Number of National Seeds that made the CWS:
2012: 4
2011: 6
2010: 3
2009: 5
2008: 6
2007: 3

Since going to Super Regionals, only one #1 seed has won the national championship - Miami in 1999, the first year. Four times, the #1 seed has failed to reach Omaha.

#2 seed has made Omaha 12 of 14 times
#3 seed 9 of 14
#4 seed 7 of 14
#5 seed 7 of 14
#6 seed 8 of 14
#7 seed 6 of 14
#8 seed 10 of 14

In all 46 national seeds (out of 112) have failed to make the CWS.

Some teams have had some really bad luck as national seeds.

Florida State, for instance, has been a national seed 8 times, but only reached Omaha as a national seed four times. FSU was the #1 overall seed twice and failed to make it.

Georgia Tech is 0-for-3 when they are a national seed.

After FSU, Cal State Fullerton has the most national seeds - 7. They have reached Omaha in five of those seven seasons.

Stanford was a national seed the first six years of the format, and went to Omaha the first five. Since then, they have not been a national seed.

Miami has been a national seed five times, and reached the CWS all five times.

LSU has also been a national seed five times, but failed to reach Omaha last season, so they are 4-for-5.

Of this year's probable national seeds:

Vanderbilt was the #1 seed in 2007 and failed to reach the CWS
North Carolina has been a national seed five times and has reached Omaha four times.
Virginia is 1-for-2 as a national seed
LSU is 4-for-5 as a national seed
Cal State Fullerton is 5-for-7
Florida State is 4-for-8
Oregon State is 1-for-1
Louisville and Oregon are 0-for-1.

 

[Jimbob Cooter]

I completely disagree and I'll show you why:

In the last nine years, only two national seeds have won the national championship.

#3 seed LSU in 2009 and #4 South Carolina in 2011.

And there are (64 participants - 8 national seeds) x 9 years = 504 other teams (subtract the other 7 winners) = 497 other teams who didn't win it. That's a 2.7% chance to win it all if you're a national seed vs. a 1.4% chance if you're a lower seed. Nearly double.

Number of National Seeds that made the CWS:
2012: 4
2011: 6
2010: 3
2009: 5
2008: 6
2007: 3

So an average of 4.5 out of 8 teams made the CWS in those 6 years. Assuming that 64 total teams - 8 national seeds = 56 teams are left, that gives them 3.5 average spots. So in any given year a national seed has a 56% chance to make Omaha and non-national seeds have a 6% chance. Yeeeeeeah.

In all 46 national seeds (out of 112) have failed to make the CWS.

How many teams out of 64 that weren't national seeds fail to make the CWS? Many, MANY more.

Now those numbers may not be 100% accurate or encompass all levels of probability, but they are close. It's ALWAYS......ALWAYS better to be a higher seed. No matter what. Even more so in baseball because you can play at home. To think otherwise is the very definition of ignorant.

 

[patdog]

Almost 60% of national seeds make the CWS. That sounds pretty good to me. Hell of a lot better than NOT being a national seed. Wonder what percent of #1 non-national seeds make the CWS? Maybe 25%? Seems like a pretty big advantage to be a national seed.

 

[sleepy dawg]

All that said, his point remains true... "National Seed Not Always Best Route". Clever wording.

 

[615dawg]

Hell, I thought the numbers were interesting. Especially FSU crapping the bed half the time.

Of course its better to be a national seed. Geez.

 

[Jimbob Cooter]

No, it doesn't. At all.

Using history to predict the future, which he did, renders his point dead wrong.

 

[LiterallyPolice]

No, it doesn't. At all.

Using history to predict the future, which he did, renders his point dead wrong.

WHOA. Somebody's got a case of the Mondays!

Office Space references aside, the numbers are interesting. 2 national champions have been national seeds. Wouldn't you expect that % to be much higher? I would... And regardless, it illustrates his central point: there's more hope than you think for those teams not nationally seeded.

 

[patdog]

Not really a coincidence that 2 of the teams that crapped the bed a lot during that time are ACC schools (FSU & GA Tech). Every year, the ACC is considered almost equal to the SEC going into the regionals, and every year the SEC smokes the ACC's *** in tournament performance.

 

[engie]

Not really a coincidence that 2 of the teams that crapped the bed a lot during that time are ACC schools (FSU & GA Tech). Every year, the ACC is considered almost equal to the SEC going into the regionals, and every year the SEC smokes the ACC's *** in tournament performance.

I'm enjoying your new perspective on baseball this year! Last year really went a long way toward changing your mind on some things didn't it?

I'll have the full numbers for this later on(in the super regional era)... Got all that stuff databased already...

 

[patdog]

I've pretty much always thought the ACC was overrated. It's still a hell of a conference. Second best in the country. But it's not as good as it's hyped up to be. I did see more improvement from our team last year than I had the year before, despite not going as far in the postseason (not coincidentally because we played a regional at one of the perennial bed crappers that year, which I've caught a lot of hell for pointing out). I figured we should be a at least a very legitimate contender to host a regional this year, which is the best we've been in 10 years. Why not enjoy it and not focus on the shortcomings. We've still got a long way to go to get to the level most of us think we should be at (we've won a LOT of 1-run games this year which isn't sustainable). But we're moving in the right direction.

 

[basedawg]

Totally agree patdog! It just amazes me how some just criticize Cohen so much for each and every move he makes. I'm pretty sure he has made way more correct moves than bad moves or decisions.

We are getting better under Cohen's leadership, I believe we will be in the CWS soon, may not be this year but it's coming, just like patdog said "we're moving in the right direction".

 

[Jimbob Cooter]

we've won a LOT of 1-run games this year which isn't sustainable

You can't make this statement without acknowledging that John Cohen predicted this earlier in the year. "Unfortunately we're going to have a good many 1-2 run close games....." was his exact quote. No, I don't have a link, he said it on his post game show after either one of the LSU or Kentucky games, can't remember which. Lends even more credence to the notion that he knows EXACTLY what he's doing.

 

[patdog]

Whether he predicted it or not, the fact is that ALL teams at every level in any sport trend toward .500 in close games. I'll take your word that he did make that prediction. But he didn't say that we'd go 14-3 in those games. It's great that we did win that many of them. But it does indicate that our team is not quite as good as the record indicates.