NCHSAA releases new ADM numbers

[Reichone]

The NCHSAA just released the updated new ADM numbers earlier today. This is the average daily membership number for the football playoffs. For those that do not know, these numbers are used to subdivide the classifications in the state of NC (ie. 2A, 2AA). These numbers were not expect to be released until later this week so this will help make projections more accurate for those who provide projections.

This updated information as it relates to the ADM numbers can be found on the following link:

https://www.nchsaa.org/sites/default/files/2018-19-NCHSAA_ADMs.pdf

Also, www.highschoolot.com is a site who has made fairly accurate state playoff projections the last few years.

 

[91ths]

Pisgah 990
Tuscola 974

Hmmmm

 

[Lion Attack]

Pisgah 990
Tuscola 974

Hmmmm

Lol

 

[West17]

These ADM's are great but to the newbie, is there a definite number in place to determine big A from little A in all classes? Like anything over this and anything under this?

 

[Chopper747]

Hibriten is bigger than Havelock HA!!

 

[ncfootball_17]

These ADM's are great but to the newbie, is there a definite number in place to determine big A from little A in all classes? Like anything over this and anything under this?

No. Of the teams that qualify, the largest half goes to AA and the smallest half goes to A.

 

[Moparforever]

For the second year I a row RS central and Shelby have the exact same number of student 884 this year. Don’t mean anything it’s just funny

 

[tarheelg]

These ADM's are great but to the newbie, is there a definite number in place to determine big A from little A in all classes? Like anything over this and anything under this?

No, you don't know that number until you see which 64 teams make the playoffs, and that's something nobody is sure of until not only all the games get played, but until the final set of adjusted maxpreps rankings come out, which are released at the same time as the preliminary brackets

 

[bearalum04]

Pisgah 990
Tuscola 974

Hmmmm

Salty

 

[tarheelg]

Pisgah 990
Tuscola 974

Hmmmm

Realignment that takes effect 2021 gets underway next year with looking at ADMs and the first steps of the new conferences.....there are a few other current 3A teams that appear to be on their way to 2A in 2021, and vice versa.....also a bunch of current 2As appear to be headed for 1A, and vice versa, as always.....the big question is whether or not they go back to 25/25/25/25 or stick with the new 20/30/30/20....in a related story....what's scary or sad is how many very large 2A schools with well over 900 or 1000 students either do not have a football program or have struggled mightily this year or for the last few years, with their maxpreps rankings between the 80s or 100s

 

[Pbear9975]

Pisgah 990
Tuscola 974

Hmmmm

FWIW, a lot of Pisgah fans think Tuscola should be back in the same conference with Pisgah. The next lowest ADM in the WMAC is North Henderson at 1066, 92 more. ACR has 398 more, and TCR 670 more. That's a bunch.

 

[tarheelg]

FWIW, a lot of Pisgah fans think Tuscola should be back in the same conference with Pisgah. The next lowest ADM in the WMAC is North Henderson at 1066, 92 more. ACR has 398 more, and TCR 670 more. That's a bunch.

They're in the same county, if they're both 2A or both 3A, one would expect them to always be in the same conference.....remember in this current cycle, they decided in advance, absolutely no 2A/3A split conferences

 

[Pbear9975]

They're in the same county, if they're both 2A or both 3A, one would expect them to always be in the same conference.....remember in this current cycle, they decided in advance, absolutely no 2A/3A split conferences

But 1a/2a were allowed...

 

[tarheelg]

But 1a/2a were allowed...

Yes, and 3A/4A....all about strength of schedules and all for playoffs....actually a good idea I believe.....as you had many 2A teams in split conferences in the years before....but some were in 1A/2A and others in 2A/3A....while some 3As were in splits with 3A/4A and others with 2A/3A.....they made the split conferences more standardized so you won't have 2A teams in a 2A/3A split conference automatically getting way more strength of schedule points because of playing a bunch of 3A teams in conference

 

[West17]

Tarheelg why is Reidsville 2A west and Cummings and carrboro 2AA east?

 

[West17]

Same conference

 

[tarheelg]

Tarheelg why is Reidsville 2A west and Cummings and carrboro 2AA east?

Remember the AA & A split is only on enrollment....and you don't split East & West until AFTER you separate the larger 32 and smaller 32 into A & AA....so this year you'll see some like this with Reidsville and a few others, but right now, if my projections stay close to intact after this week's game, it won't be as silly as last year.....Remember last year we had teams like South Columbus & Whiteville in 2A West.....while Anson, Ledford, and North Davidson were in 2AA East....it's just the way things work out with a bigger concentration of teams with larger enrollments being out toward the western part of the state, while a larger concentration of smaller enrollment schools who made the playoffs were a lot further east....many people did not realize last year, had there been a couple of more upsets in the last Friday night of the regular season, you could have seen Clinton, and maybe Wallace-Rose Hill in 2A West.....and (imagine this.......), and even South Point in 2AA East

 

[tarheelg]

Same conference

No, the only thing that conference has to do with playoffs is who qualifies and goes to which tier as a 1, 2, 3, or wild card.....and the new rule this year about a team cannot leap frog a team in its conference to get in as a wild card, hurting Red Springs, Nash Central, Roanoke Rapids, and Anson

 

[West17]

Ok gotcha. Lol, it sucks we want from a possible 6 seed and home playoff game (first in school history) in 2A West to a 13 seed in 2AA West and playing Shelby because of the ADM's and cut lines

 

[tarheelg]

Ok gotcha. Lol, it sucks we want from a possible 6 seed and home playoff game (first in school history) in 2A West to a 13 seed in 2AA West and playing Shelby because of the ADM's and cut lines

I've seen worse......later in the game......2013, 1A preliminary brackets posted early on seeding Saturday showed Granville Central as a 6 seed in 1AA East, hosting 11 seed Perquimans....but somebody at the state forgot, or didn't realize yet that Atkins opted out of the playoffs.....so when the final brackets came out a couple of hours later, the last wild card team (the one who replaced Atkins in the playoffs) made the bracket shift around and pushed Granville Central to the 1AA West, where instead of a 6, they became either a 13 or 14 seed, had to go to Mitchell Co. and it didn't end well

 

[West17]

Hey it's the the rules, I get it but to be honest that home playoff game meant more to our team than winning the first round. They wanted it for the school and the fans. Shows the character of the team. Very proud of them.

 

[tarheelg]

Hey it's the the rules, I get it but to be honest that home playoff game meant more to our team than winning the first round. They wanted it for the school and the fans. Shows the character of the team. Very proud of them.

Yes....small steps though....when the current coach at South Granville got here in 2005, the school had not made the playoffs (or even gotten close) since 1998....we had a couple of years of 3-8, (coming off back to back 1-10s before that), but then in 2007, those guys that had been in the program for a couple of years broke out and rattled off an 8-3 regular season, three way tie for conference championship with Eastern Alamance & JF Webb....we were fully expecting to host a playoff game for the first time since either Ronald Reagan or Jimmy Carter was president, but in that draw, we got the short straw and had to go on the road to Washington, made some clutch plays in the 4th quarter on offense and defense to erase a 14 pt deficit, then won 41-40 in 2OT...then when we did get bracketed for home playoff games in 2009 after winning the conference, they got moved to JF Webb since our field was in such bad shape.....we FINALLY got to host a playoff game in 2011 in 1st Rd against Carrboro and won 36-21....then had Reidsville at home in 2nd Rd and we are still haunted by that 2nd half....I bet TheMule and FBCapital and others from Reidsville who were there remember it too.....anyway, moral of the story is that if you can keep the program on the upswing for multiple years, you'll eventually get your home playoff games

 

[rambbq]

Yes....small steps though....when the current coach at South Granville got here in 2005, the school had not made the playoffs (or even gotten close) since 1998....we had a couple of years of 3-8, (coming off back to back 1-10s before that), but then in 2007, those guys that had been in the program for a couple of years broke out and rattled off an 8-3 regular season, three way tie for conference championship with Eastern Alamance & JF Webb....we were fully expecting to host a playoff game for the first time since either Ronald Reagan or Jimmy Carter was president, but in that draw, we got the short straw and had to go on the road to Washington, made some clutch plays in the 4th quarter on offense and defense to erase a 14 pt deficit, then won 41-40 in 2OT...then when we did get bracketed for home playoff games in 2009 after winning the conference, they got moved to JF Webb since our field was in such bad shape.....we FINALLY got to host a playoff game in 2011 in 1st Rd against Carrboro and won 36-21....then had Reidsville at home in 2nd Rd and we are still haunted by that 2nd half....I bet TheMule and FBCapital and others from Reidsville who were there remember it too.....anyway, moral of the story is that if you can keep the program on the upswing for multiple years, you'll eventually get your home playoff games

very well remember that 2011 game Reidsville/S. Granville....Rams trailed by 20 in second half...forced a fumble and returned it for a TD and the rest of the game belonged to Reidsville with Rams winning over S. Granville 21-20.....2 games later Reidsville lost on a hail mary on the last play of the game to Kinston (that was 2AA East Regional Final).............as the saying goes...."The Lord giveth and the Lord taketh away".........................

 

[tarheelg]

very well remember that 2011 game Reidsville/S. Granville....Rams trailed by 20 in second half...forced a fumble and returned it for a TD and the rest of the game belonged to Reidsville with Rams winning over S. Granville 21-20.....2 games later Reidsville lost on a hail mary on the last play of the game to Kinston (that was 2AA East Regional Final).............as the saying goes...."The Lord giveth and the Lord taketh away".........................

Was the regular season game in 2011 the last time that Reidsville lost to Cummings?

 

[28-20]

That hail Mary was actually an incomplete pass. But the closest ref fell down and failed to see the ball bounce a foot off the ground. Reidsville was celebrating when the ref got up and signaled TD

 

[rambbq]

Was the regular season game in 2011 the last time that Reidsville lost to Cummings?

correct...Rams lost to Cummings 21-20 on Sept. 30th of that year and then Reidsville walloped Cummings 31-7 on Nov. 18th (3rd round of 2AA playoffs)......

 

[19yardline]

These ADM's are great but to the newbie, is there a definite number in place to determine big A from little A in all classes? Like anything over this and anything under this?

These ADM's are great but to the newbie, is there a definite number in place to determine big A from little A in all classes? Like anything over this and anything under this?

Usually there's only maybe 10-15 schools tops who you don't know ahead of time if they'll be 2A or 2AA. I haven't seen a list of 2A's in numerical order by ADM, but if you take that list, the largest 32 will go 2AA if they make the playoffs and the smallest 32 will go 2A if they make the playoffs; no way around it. That only leaves the 35 or so remaining teams between the two extremes, so logic says that only the middle portion of that group would be considered up in the air at this point. For example the 40th largest school is unlikely to fall into the bottom 32 if they make the playoffs, just like the 40th smallest is unlikely to rise into the largest 32. In summary based on ADMs, 64 teams already know which bracket they'd be in if they make the playoffs, another 20 have an extremely high likelihood of where they'd go, and maybe 15 tops could go either way.

 

[ReidsvilleRam90]

That hail Mary was actually an incomplete pass. But the closest ref fell down and failed to see the ball bounce a foot off the ground. Reidsville was celebrating when the ref got up and signaled TD

Kinston imploded at the state championship with as they felt, bad calls.

Much like the Lord Rambbq, the ref giveth, the ref taketh away.

 

[rams10]

Kinston imploded at the state championship with as they felt, bad calls.

Much like the Lord Rambbq, the ref giveth, the ref taketh away.

The 2004 and 2011 teams let state championships slip away

 

[ReidsvilleRam90]

The 2004 and 2011 teams let state championships slip away

And 2005 and 2017.

 

[tarheelg]

Kinston imploded at the state championship with as they felt, bad calls.

Much like the Lord Rambbq, the ref giveth, the ref taketh away.

I remember scoreboard watching on my phone and seeing Kinston ahead, maybe 20-0 in 1st Qtr or 28-0 at halftime, then the rest of the day, every time I checked back in, West Stokes had scored again and went on to win something like 34-28 or 40-28

 

[tarheelg]

Here's your 2A ADM list, (with the Thursday updates) and I drew a line between my current projected 2A/2AA cut line....note the possibility of a draw between SW Edgecombe and Smoky Mtn. if the cut line moves up one spot

Vance Co. 1437 (heard they're going to 3A next year, had been split into Northern Vance & Southern Vance since around 1990)
North Davidson 1144
Durham Sch. of the Arts 1107
Hibriten 1034
St. Pauls 1027
Ledford 1023
SG Atkins 1019
South Point 999
Nash Central 990
Pisgah 990
North Lincoln 988
Currituck Co. 983
Forest Hills 980
South Rowan 972
HM Cummings 965
Central Davidson 952
East Duplin 951
East Lincoln 950
Roanoke Rapids 938
Franklin 933
West Craven 931
Wilkes Central 929
Anson Co. 919
East Henderson 901
Bunn 898
Dixon 896
Washington 895
Richlands 891
FT Foard 886
East Burke 884
Ruth.-Spin. Central 884
Salisbury 884
Shelby 884
West Stokes 880
Carrboro 877
East Gaston 872
Ashe Co. 871
Central Academy 871
East Davidson 871
Bunker Hill 866
North Lenoir 863
Mount Pleasant 861
Jordan Matthews 860
West Iredell 860
Newton-Conover 856
Croatan 852
First Flight 846
Hertford Co. 846
Bandys 842
West Lincoln 840
Forbush 839
Smoky Mountain 838
SW Edgecombe 838
South Granville 836
Randleman 834
Maiden 832
TW Andrews 830
North Surry 826
CD Owen 821
RL Patton 821
Clinton 808
Wheatmore 808
Graham 806
Lake Norman Charter 805
North Pitt 799
Lexington 798
Brevard 789
Midway 788
East Rutherford 786
Goldsboro 784
Chase 783
West Davidson 780
Lincolnton 775
ET Beddingfield 770
Madison Co. 767
Hendersonville 766
Pasquotank Co. 766
Farmville Central 764
Bartlett Yancey 762
West Stanly 757
South Columbus 750
West Wilkes 750
Greene Central 749
South Lenoir 746
JF Webb 743
North Johnston 742
Providence Grove 740
SW Onslow 736
Heide Trask 736
Oak Grove 732 (only 9th-11th grade this year)
Walkertown 725
Red Springs 717
Surry Central 715
Reidsville 708
Spring Creek 705
Trinity 696
Whiteville 692
West Bladen 688
NC Sch. of Sci. & Math 678
North Wilkes 677
James Kenan 676
Bertie Co. 675
Mountain Heritage 665
Northeastern 662
Thomasville 659
Ayden-Grifton 653
Eastern Randolph 648
Kinston 647
East Bladen 637
Wallace-Rose Hill 628
JC Draughn 618
Fairmont 616
East Montgomery 590
GW Carver 582
Warren Co. 578

 

[rams10]

And 2005 and 2017.

Yeah 2017 definitely. 2005 we just lost to a better team, imo

 

[WNCfballFan]

Just saw where they have a new updated ADM. Smoky Mtn is at 838 now.

 

[BigBird12]

Here's your 2A ADM list, and I drew a line between my current projected 2A/2AA cut line....
Vance Co. 1437 (heard they're going to 3A next year, had been split into Northern Vance & Southern Vance since around 1990)
North Davidson 1144
Durham Sch. of the Arts 1107
Hibriten 1034
St. Pauls 1027
Ledford 1023
SG Atkins 1019
South Point 999
Nash Central 990
Pisgah 990
North Lincoln 988
Currituck Co. 983
Forest Hills 980
South Rowan 972
HM Cummings 965
Central Davidson 952
East Duplin 951
East Lincoln 950
Roanoke Rapids 938
Franklin 933
West Craven 931
Anson Co. 919
East Henderson 901
Bunn 898
Dixon 896
Washington 895
Richlands 891
FT Foard 886
East Burke 884
Ruth.-Spin. Central 884
Salisbury 884
Shelby 884
West Stokes 880
Carrboro 877
East Gaston 872
Ashe Co. 871
Central Academy 871
East Davidson 871
Bunker Hill 866
Smoky Mountain 864
North Lenoir 863
Mount Pleasant 861
Jordan Matthews 860
West Iredell 860
Newton-Conover 856
Croatan 852
First Flight 846
Hertford Co. 846
Bandys 842
West Lincoln 840
Wilkes Central 840
Forbush 839
SW Edgecombe 838
South Granville 836
Randleman 834
Maiden 832
TW Andrews 830
North Surry 826
CD Owen 821
RL Patton 821
Clinton 808
Wheatmore 808
Graham 806
Lake Norman Charter 805
North Pitt 799
Lexington 798
Brevard 789
Midway 788
East Rutherford 786
Goldsboro 784
Chase 783
West Davidson 780
Lincolnton 775
ET Beddingfield 770
Madison Co. 767
Hendersonville 766
Pasquotank Co. 766
Farmville Central 764
Bartlett Yancey 762
West Stanly 757
South Columbus 750
Greene Central 749
South Lenoir 746
JF Webb 743
North Johnston 742
Red Springs 741
Providence Grove 740
SW Onslow 736
Heide Trask 736
Oak Grove 732 (only 9th-11th grade this year)
Walkertown 725
Surry Central 715
Reidsville 708
Spring Creek 705
Trinity 696
Whiteville 692
West Wilkes 690
West Bladen 688
NC Sch. of Sci. & Math 678
James Kenan 676
Bertie Co. 675
Mountain Heritage 665
Northeastern 662
Thomasville 659
Ayden-Grifton 653
Eastern Randolph 648
Kinston 647
East Bladen 637
Fairmont 634
Wallace-Rose Hill 628
North Wilkes 626
JC Draughn 618
East Montgomery 590
GW Carver 582
Warren Co. 578

Northeastern 1A next realignment

 

[lilshmed]

Just saw where they have a new updated ADM. Smoky Mtn is at 838 now.

Not surprised. Smoky doesn’t want any more of Pisgah.

 

[tarheelg]

Not surprised. Smoky doesn’t want any more of Pisgah.

Right now I believe 838 still puts the Mustangs in 2AA

 

[tarheelg]

Northeastern 1A next realignment

Maybe if they go back to 25/25/25/25 instead of the current 20/30/30/20 % model for 1A/2A/3A/4A

 

[tarheelg]

Just saw where they have a new updated ADM. Smoky Mtn is at 838 now.

Any other changes besides Smoky Mountain??

 

[bears man]

Not surprised. Smoky doesn’t want any more of Pisgah.

They'd rather travel I 40 and play somebody else.