Nebrasketball Scenarios

[Husker4Real1]

There are 4 possibilities for NU to finish the regular season. I list them in what I think are the most likely regular season finishes:
1. 2-1
2. 1-2
3. 3-0
4. 0-3

1. If NU finished the regular season 26-5, they would most likely be no worse than a 4 seed in the B1G tournament, possibly a 3, depending on how other top teams finish and tiebreakers. In that case, it would be great to win at least 1 game and perhaps sneak onto the 2 line in the NCAA Tournament. Even losing that Friday game would probably keep NU as a solid #3 seed. NU would likely need to win the B1G tournament in order to jump to a 1 seed.

2. Finishing 1-2 and heading to the B1G tournament at 25-6 would probably cause some anxiety. That would almost surely mean a seed between 5-8 and playing on Thursday in the B1G tournament. NU would likely need to win at least 1 BIG tournament game to stay a 4 seed in the NCAA Tournament. They would likely need to reach the B1G semis, and perhaps the title game to get back to the 3 line. A B1G title game appearance might get you back to a 2 seed in that scenario.

3. This would be great and is certainly possible. If NU finishes 27-4, the B1G tournament is essentially a series of exhibition games. NU would likely be the #2 seed in the B1G Tournament. If they lost on Friday night, they'd be a be a 3 seed in the Dance. If they won on Friday, they'd be locked in at a #2 seed. Winning the B1G might be enough to move to the #1 line - and it is okay to be greedy.

4. This is like scenario #2 on steroids. There would be a huge spike in angst of NU stumbled to 24-7 and a middling seed in the B1G Tournament. They would still have a double-bye, but there would be pressure to stop the losing streak and build momentum for the Dance. This scenario would mean NU would likely need to win at least 1 B1G Tournament game to salvage a 4 seed in the dance, perhaps 2. I hate to think of this possibility, and I think it is the least likely...but when was the last time you were NOT ready for the worst-case scenario with NU sports?

Side Note: Nebraska has won 3 straight tournaments...can they make it 4? 5?

It's okay to be greedy.

 

[SuperBigFan69]

It does appear that the 4th one seed is up for grabs but really right now, location might be a bigger deal. I don't know which would be the best location for NU to land. Chicago? St. Louis?

I don't know the other spots.

 

[BetterRed1]

Al three games are going to be challenging. Just going on the West coast presents challenges. It screws with your body clock. I bet on Wisconsin last night, thinking they could easily cover that 5 points against a bad Oregon team. I should remember it’s a risk to play a team going out two hours on your time to play a late game. I think our guys get tripped up in Pauley. USC won’t be easy either. And as much as I hate herkie, those cretins are actually pretty good. Buckle up the final week.

 

[salsa red]

That wisconsin loss gives us a little breathing room. We're rooting for MI to beat IL and MSU. MSU and purdue play as well so one's going to lose. 2-1 should give us 2nd or 3rd in conference I think.

 

[salsa red]

MSU beating purdue helps us I think, we have a win vs them.

 

[SuperBigFan69]

Winning the BTT doesn't really improve your seeding for MM. Or so the committee has said over and over.

It seems like the only time it really matters is if the team that wins it was NOT going to get in...

 

[PvilleHuskerTim]

Winning the BTT doesn't really improve your seeding for MM. Or so the committee has said over and over.

It seems like the only time it really matters is if the team that wins it was NOT going to get in...

It would seem like NCAA seedings are almost completely locked in, with only 3 games left in the regular season and conference tournament games. While not an expert on the seeding mathematics, NU has 3 games left, which will all be Quad 1 games. Losing all 3 of those would suck in terms of emotion but likely does not move the needle a lot from the NET rankings. Winning 1, 2, or 3 of those games also isn't going to bump the NET rankings substantially. Essentially, Nebraska has a chance to move from a 3 seed to a 2 seed with several more wins. Losses might result in going from a 3 seed to at worst a 5 seed. Anywhere from a 2 to 5 seed should be favorable for the Huskers.

 

[SuperBigFan69]

It would seem like NCAA seedings are almost completely locked in, with only 3 games left in the regular season and conference tournament games. While not an expert on the seeding mathematics, NU has 3 games left, which will all be Quad 1 games. Losing all 3 of those would suck in terms of emotion but likely does not move the needle a lot from the NET rankings. Winning 1, 2, or 3 of those games also isn't going to bump the NET rankings substantially. Essentially, Nebraska has a chance to move from a 3 seed to a 2 seed with several more wins. Losses might result in going from a 3 seed to at worst a 5 seed. Anywhere from a 2 to 5 seed should be favorable for the Huskers.

Yeah, I think you are right.

5 seed seems unlikely but you never know.

 

[cubsker15]

It does appear that the 4th one seed is up for grabs but really right now, location might be a bigger deal. I don't know which would be the best location for NU to land. Chicago? St. Louis?

I don't know the other spots.

Chicago is a sweet 16 site. StL and OKC are the only two that are remotely close for the first 2 rds.

 

[BetterRed1]

Winning the B10 tournament would be cool. The flip side is, it’s typically a street fight game played late Sunday afternoon, which seems to take a lot out of both teams. Then if you get a Thursday game in the tournament, that’s even worse. It’s almost as if it’s more advantageous to lose Saturday for the rest. Not saying I’m rooting for that, but that championship game after two tough days beats you up a bit.

 

[SuperBigFan69]

Winning the B10 tournament would be cool. The flip side is, it’s typically a street fight game played late Sunday afternoon, which seems to take a lot out of both teams. Then if you get a Thursday game in the tournament, that’s even worse. It’s almost as if it’s more advantageous to lose Saturday for the rest. Not saying I’m rooting for that, but that championship game after two tough days beats you up a bit.

This has been debated for so long.

Who knows if it does hurt but it does seem like it doesn't help at all.

 

[Redscarlet]

Winning the B10 tournament would be cool. The flip side is, it’s typically a street fight game played late Sunday afternoon, which seems to take a lot out of both teams. Then if you get a Thursday game in the tournament, that’s even worse. It’s almost as if it’s more advantageous to lose Saturday for the rest. Not saying I’m rooting for that, but that championship game after two tough days beats you up a bit.

It’s been run this way forever but it’s even a more grind that 18 teams are in the league, personally I had no problem last year not playing in it.

If you can’t be the 14th best team out 18 that’s good reason not to have 18 teams playing in the conference tournament.

 

[Husker88]

Go 2-1 to end the regular season.

Get a Triple Bye and win one in the B10 tourney.

Freshen up and gear up towards a win in the NCAA Tourney.

I might build a statue for Fred in front of PBA.

 

[big red23]

2-1 is the most likely scenario
3-0 is #2
1-2 is #3
0-3 is #4

Why you ask

Well we are favored in them all

@USC = 74% favorite
@UCLA = 56% favorite
Iowa = 70% favorite

So no way mathematically 1-2 would be a more likely outcome than 3-0. The only reason I think 2-1 is the most likely outcome is because UCLA is the 2nd of two LA road games which I believe gives them the slight edge and they have motivation after beating Illinois at home.

USC and Iowa should be wins.

My gut says we go 3-0, but my wallet says 2-1

 

[Husker4Real1]

The UCLA game flipped to NU being a slight favorite (according to ESPN's match-up predictor). Prior to Saturday's games UCLA was a slight favorite - very slight. Saturday's results undoubtedly flipped the prediction. UCLA is 16-1 at home, so it will be a tall order for NU. The good news is that NU has delivered tall orders all season.

Other good news for today...BBALL.net has not completely updated yet, but KenPom has. That shows NU currently sitting with 10 (TEN!!) Q1 wins:

Home:
MSU (9)
Wisconsin (30)

Road:
Illinois (5)
Ohio St (35)
Indiana (43)
Minnesota (64)
USC (67)
Northwestern (68)

Neutral:
New Mexico (46)
Oklahoma (50)

It is unlikely that all of these will remain Q1...a few are fringe Q1 and could easily slip to Q2. I can see 2 of 3 out of MN, USC, NW slipping to Q2); OU needs a few more wins to stay in the Top 50; New Mexico needs to keep winning to stay top 50; Wisconsin is also borderline Q1 for us, but I think they are good enough to stay there.

 

[big red23]

The UCLA game flipped to NU being a slight favorite (according to ESPN's match-up predictor). Prior to Saturday's games UCLA was a slight favorite - very slight. Saturday's results undoubtedly flipped the prediction. UCLA is 16-1 at home, so it will be a tall order for NU. The good news is that NU has delivered tall orders all season.

Other good news for today...BBALL.net has not completely updated yet, but KenPom has. That shows NU currently sitting with 10 (TEN!!) Q1 wins:

Home:
MSU (9)
Wisconsin (30)

Road:
Illinois (5)
Ohio St (35)
Indiana (43)
Minnesota (64)
USC (67)
Northwestern (68)

Neutral:
New Mexico (46)
Oklahoma (50)

It is unlikely that all of these will remain Q1...a few are fringe Q1 and could easily slip to Q2. I can see 2 of 3 out of MN, USC, NW slipping to Q2); OU needs a few more wins to stay in the Top 50; New Mexico needs to keep winning to stay top 50; Wisconsin is also borderline Q1 for us, but I think they are good enough to stay there.

UCLA is 16-1 @Home and that one loss is to Arizona by 4. Just saying a win here is a solidified 2 seed for us in the Dance unless we completely tank the Iowa game

 

[salsa red]

 

[Danimal4NU]

Surprised Huskers favored by 2. That's some huge respect given to us.