A couple of things. If you saw the kickoffs and extra points, you know that NV kicker had a huge leg. He actually kicked a touchback into the wind in the first half. His extra points disappeared into the night like no other kicker we played this year. With a stiff breeze, that kid is likely money from 50.
Second, it was 4th and 9. Not sure what you mean by "you assume GW gains no yards." On 4th and 9 you are forced to throw downfield. A screen pass would not be an option because GW already had run that on a 3rd and 13 earlier and came up short due to the correctly predicted pursuit speed of NV. You were right about the sideline to sideline ability of Rhat the LB.
So that play has four likely outcomes. First, it could be a sack, which if Brady doesn't coyly step up, happens as pocket collapsed. Second, an incomplete pass. If so NV needs 25-30 yards in :40 seconds and a good kick which I put as 50/50 proposition. Third, NV gets interception. This one would likely help GW unless the interceptor is #1 which might have been returned to at least the line of scrimmage or maybe more. Fourth is the completion for the first down.
Now we get to the fun part. GW under Hetlet has not won a game on a game winning FG to my knowledge. In 2012, we beat WN 3-0 in the mud bowl but pretty sure the FG was first half. I won't put any of my impressions of GW as having any truth, but from the seats, it has seemed like Hetlet strongly dislikes the kicking game. Some, not me, have even accused him of not kicking enough FGs. Going back four weeks against HC, he chose to go for two in OT which I applauded but others cited as his history of disdain for the kicking game.
Finally, that stiff breeze. I'm not talking Friday night at Wrigley stiff wind, but it was 10-15 steady that had the flags pointing directly into GW's face on that drive. And granted that final FG was only 32 yards, but add it all up and most of us were betting that we would see a punt on 4th & 9.
I will be happy to let others chime in that we're at the game and saw what that NV kicker was doing all game. And someone who felt the wind and saw the direction. And someone who had the context of seeing Hetlet coach for many games. For those of us that were at the field, it was a ballsy call.