6.7 million... Whoa. Last week was revised up to 3.3 million. The previous high was in October of 1982 at 695,000. It's going to be a rough go for a lot of people in more way than one. Take care of yourselves.
New Jobless Claims
- Thread starter Jeffreauxdawg
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THIS IS NOT A DRILL! Our economy is on life support! It will get worse before it gets better. Shutting down the economy was necessary but DAMNED.
Agree, unfortunately. Although fingers crossed CARES/PPP will keep a lot of small/medium businesses afloat and therefore their employees.
Even if we stop social distancing today, we’d probably see unemployment continue to rise for a couple months.
I heard the Dallas FED chair make a good analogy the other day. Crawl, walk, run. Hopefully we get the economy back crawling this summer, then walking by the end of the year, then hopefully running in 2021.
I heard the Dallas FED chair make a good analogy the other day. Crawl, walk, run. Hopefully we get the economy back crawling this summer, then walking by the end of the year, then hopefully running in 2021.
I don't buy that. Unemployment is spiking because the government is forcing businesses to close and forcing people to stay at home. When those businesses open, people will go back to work.
There will be some inevitable slowdowns in areas. I doubt that everyone rushes to fill up restaurants until they are confident their risk of getting sick is low, for example. But I believe the economy will generally bounce back very quickly.
All of these decision makers won’t be losing any paychecks either. So that makes these extensions a whole lot easier when they don’t personally feel it.
((Waves))
I’m one of the 6 million, but I want to add..I’m not completely unemployed. Had my salary cut in half, but could still apply for unemployment assistance. Hopefully many more like me. But with that said, if this goes on for more than a few months I’m not sure what we will do....other than eat through our retirement, which...is already ravaged.
I’m one of the 6 million, but I want to add..I’m not completely unemployed. Had my salary cut in half, but could still apply for unemployment assistance. Hopefully many more like me. But with that said, if this goes on for more than a few months I’m not sure what we will do....other than eat through our retirement, which...is already ravaged.
I generally agree with Drebin here believe it or not. It's sort of like we have put the economy in a medically-induced coma in order to save it. This isn't like 2008 or 1929.
The thing is, short of a vaccine, cure or getting lucky with summer heat, this isn’t going away. Yes, we can flatten the curve via the massive lockdown, but as long as the virus exists, we are going to have these outbreaks until a pretty large number of us have immunity. People will continue to die during that time as well.
I don’t see the economy surviving a year of this while we wait on a vaccine. We are already printing Monopoly money as it it. It will be interesting to see which politicians who are currently in a race to demonstrate that they are able to impose the most extreme restrictions, will be the first to admit (and it isn’t going to be easy) that we can’t all sit at home for a year and get paid.
I don’t see the economy surviving a year of this while we wait on a vaccine. We are already printing Monopoly money as it it. It will be interesting to see which politicians who are currently in a race to demonstrate that they are able to impose the most extreme restrictions, will be the first to admit (and it isn’t going to be easy) that we can’t all sit at home for a year and get paid.
It’s the truth. This is going to be bad on mental health. You disagree?
I’m sure SirBarks knows I’m not pointing to his situation. I got sacked by this too. There will be some desperate people out there.
I’m sure SirBarks knows I’m not pointing to his situation. I got sacked by this too. There will be some desperate people out there.
This is far from my area of expertise, so I hesitate to even post anything, but is that strictly based on unemployment filings? If so, it’s an astronomical number to be sure, but I think people need to be able to separate the truly jobless from the temporary layoffs.
There’s a massive number of people filing for unemployment right now that will have a job to go back to, but they’re temporarily drawing checks due to mandatory shutdowns, the time it’s taking owners to figure out the stimulus details for small businesses, or a simple fear of being at risk for catching the virus.
Again, I’m not downplaying the number. It’s huge, but there are a lot of articles out there acting like millions of Americans have suddenly been fired, and at least as far as I know, that’s not yet the case.
There’s a massive number of people filing for unemployment right now that will have a job to go back to, but they’re temporarily drawing checks due to mandatory shutdowns, the time it’s taking owners to figure out the stimulus details for small businesses, or a simple fear of being at risk for catching the virus.
Again, I’m not downplaying the number. It’s huge, but there are a lot of articles out there acting like millions of Americans have suddenly been fired, and at least as far as I know, that’s not yet the case.
Wondering how much the expanded eligibility and federal $600/wk is factoring in. My spouse and one kid both might file soon due to lost income directly from COVID. Neither would be approved for payments and wouldn’t bother applying under the normal Mississippi rules.
Yep. Absolutely correct. Where I am, the governor was born into one of probably the top 5-10 wealthiest families in the state. He has zero idea how it feels to not know where the next meal or month's rent is coming from. And was one of the first to issue a shelter in place. Yes, it was probably the right thing to do, but it's disingenuous for him to say, "you can't have a livelihood with out a life" when he honestly cannot fathom what a life is like without a livelihood.
Keep watching the dollar index $DXY. When this starts to slide below 80 we're all in serious trouble. Fortunately, the developed economies are mostly in the same boat we are, so against the basket of currencies that make up special drawing rights (SDRs) the dollar isn't likely to depreciate. That being said the government can't keep bailing out automotive manufacturers, airlines and private businesses every quarter. Something has to give and it has to give before the end of the year.
This is correct. There are lots of folks eligible for expanded unemployment benefits as a result of one of the stimulus packages (I think it was the second one, but could be wrong). A lot of those people (probably a majority) are furloughed employees who will be rehired when their company reopens.
I'm not minimizing the significance - it's a big deal. But It's also mostly temporary.
We'll see. I'm not buying it.
There will be some, but I don't know how you quantify "a lot."
I agree. It sucks, but we are going to have to pick some winners in a few industries because it will become untenable to support entire sectors. I know it's not free market capitalism, but this is no longer a free market. There are some critical industries we can't let fail.
That was the point I was trying to make, unsuccessfully, obviously.
My understanding is that companies (under 500 employees) that were seeking to get federal assistance could not fire their employees if they wanted to receive assistance. My company furloughed every employee to either 1/2 of their hours or salary for two months starting yesterday, first day of Q2. I think June 1st they can sack every one if they want, which I’m afraid of.
My wife’s employer cut everyone’s pay 20%. Cut commish a bit more. I almost drug her off the phone yesterday as she was whining to her boss about it. She did mention she was grateful to even have a job at least.
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If the govt gives me 2.5x of my payroll/rent/opex like I applied for, I’ll be able to float this until July without massive cuts to my (small payroll). But I’m worried sick that this is not only going to linger longer, but that my revenue for the next 1.5 years will be 50-60% of what it was. And that means I will have to cut half of my employees in the long run.
Unless this thing rebounds like turning on a light switch, I think we are looking at something pretty catastrophic for a **** ton of people.
The virus is one enemy we are fighting. A lot of people will be fighting the demons in their head very soon. If you need help, get it. There is always a better solution than suicide.
That seems like a quick recovery to me. It's going to take some time for 20,000,000 to regain employment, catch up on bills, build up some savings and start spending again. That's also assuming that we're not back here in November 2020.
The fear of the virus returning will likely slow activity too. If we're in early fall with no proven vaccines or treatments, people to stop spending out of job loss concerns. Hard to see many people hiring in that environment.
The fear of the virus returning will likely slow activity too. If we're in early fall with no proven vaccines or treatments, people to stop spending out of job loss concerns. Hard to see many people hiring in that environment.
At what point does economic desperation outweigh the 1 in 400 chance that this thing kills us?
(I arrive at 1 in 400 by considering the true death toll is going to end up about 0.5%, with 50% needing to catch it for herd immunity)
I don’t know the point. But this shelter in place order can’t last 3 months.
(I arrive at 1 in 400 by considering the true death toll is going to end up about 0.5%, with 50% needing to catch it for herd immunity)
I don’t know the point. But this shelter in place order can’t last 3 months.
There are those who want this to be the death knell for Trump. They want the economy to crater and be bottomed out as long as possible. Bill Maher has said as much, several times. Virus deaths be damned. I fear a lot of suicides as well. Hold tight to faith and family is all my focus right now.
What many people do not realize is you can’t just stop the economy. Nobody paying taxes equals no money for the government. No money for the government means that they cannot provide any assistance to it’s citizens. It just doesn’t work that way.
We have to find a way to let the economy limp along while protecting most people. If 20-25 million people are out of work over the next 3-4 months, the virus will be the least of your fears.
We have to find a way to let the economy limp along while protecting most people. If 20-25 million people are out of work over the next 3-4 months, the virus will be the least of your fears.
I see your concern, but disagree. We can pay 25 million people $3,000 per month for a year and it will cost less than $1trn dollars. Well worth it if it we can knock the virus out by the 4th of July. The nightmare scenario is if this virus drags out for 18 months, kills hundreds of thousands of Americans and bankrupts major employers and tens of thousands of small businesses. That would take a decade to recover from. We need the sharp v shaped decline, not a long one..
Except that we can’t knock the virus out by the 4th of July. No way, no how. Vaccine won’t be anywhere close to ready by then.
We can flatten the curve and get testing ramped up where everyone can get tested. Not everyone that meets stringent criteria, everyone. Antibody tests should be available by then as well. Turn the recovered loose, isolate the sick, and keep the transmission low. Therapeutic meds will help cut down on the severity of those who do get it.
We can get this knocked out by the 4th. Maybe not kill it, but we can get to where South Korea is today.
The problem with this is you have to test everyone and catch the positive several days before they know they are sick in order to stop the spread. We can't ever be totally what South Korea is IMO. They are a military democracy with full generations of people geared up for total war. They follow protocols and do exactly what they are supposed to do.
I do think we can get far enough ahead of it to slowly start to open things back up though.
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