Northwestern should have gone for the 2-pt conversion

[Knight Owl]

NW should have gone for 2 after their TD to make it a two score game. There was just enough time for two onside kicks and two Hail Marys/gadget plays.
Reminds of of when I used to play 3 team/10pt teasers.

 

[Doctor Worm]

NW should have gone for 2 after their TD to make it a two score game. There was just enough time for two onside kicks and two Hail Marys/gadget plays.

There was about a 0.0001 chance of pulling all that off.

But 0.0001 is greater than 0, so I guess you are right.

 

[Knight Owl]

There was about a 0.0001 chance of pulling all that off.

But 0.0001 is greater than 0, so I guess you are right.

I guess their coach just didn’t want to get his QB killed or something. Heck, there may have been enough time for three plays from scrimmage since I’m pretty sure the clock doesn’t start on a kickoff until it touches someone and I think the clock doesn’t run during a conversion attempt.

 

[RUBOB72]

NW should have gone for 2 after their TD to make it a two score game. There was just enough time for two onside kicks and two Hail Marys/gadget plays.
Reminds of of when I used to play 3 team/10pt teasers.

They didn’t score until 31 seconds left in the game and you surmise two onside kicks and two Hail Mary’s …. Man have another drink. HaHaHa

 

[Knight Owl]

They didn’t score until 31 seconds left in the game and you surmise two onside kicks and two Hail Mary’s …. Man have another drink. HaHaHa

You play to win the game (til the clock hits zero), man. Schiano has always understood this…and has actually caught h&ll for it.

I recall two ACC rivals played a game once…

 

[Doctor Worm]

I guess their coach just didn’t want to get his QB killed or something. Heck, there may have been enough time for three plays from scrimmage since I’m pretty sure the clock doesn’t start on a kickoff until it touches someone and I think the clock doesn’t run during a conversion attempt.

Just for sh!ts and giggles I ran the numbers on this. My success estimate of .0001 (1 out of 10,000) was WAY overly kind.

Here goes:

Make 1st 2 point conversion - 50%
Recover 1st onside kick - 10%
Hit 1st Hail Mary - 5%
Make 2nd 2 point conversion - 50%
Recover 2nd onside kick - 10%
Hit 2nd Hail Mary - 5%
Make 3rd 2 point conversion - 50%

Based on those assumptions, which I think are quite conservative, the likelihood of ALL the above events occurring is 1/320000.

That's ONE out of THREE HUNDRED TWENTY THOUSAND.

Cue Lloyd Christmas GIF!

 

[Knight Owl]

Just for sh!ts and giggles I ran the numbers on this. My success estimate of .0001 (1 out of 10,000) was WAY overly kind.

Here goes:

Make 1st 2 point conversion - 50%
Recover 1st onside kick - 10%
Hit 1st Hail Mary - 5%
Make 2nd 2 point conversion - 50%
Recover 2nd onside kick - 10%
Hit 2nd Hail Mary - 5%
Make 3rd 2 point conversion - 50%

Based on those assumptions, which I think are quite conservative, the likelihood of ALL the above events occurring is 1/320000.

That's ONE out of THREE HUNDRED TWENTY THOUSAND.

Cue Lloyd Christmas GIF!

I believe onside kick recoveries are significantly greater than 10%…more like 20% when the onside is expected.

 

[e5fdny]

Just for sh!ts and giggles I ran the numbers on this. My success estimate of .0001 (1 out of 10,000) was WAY overly kind.

Here goes:

Make 1st 2 point conversion - 50%
Recover 1st onside kick - 10%
Hit 1st Hail Mary - 5%
Make 2nd 2 point conversion - 50%
Recover 2nd onside kick - 10%
Hit 2nd Hail Mary - 5%
Make 3rd 2 point conversion - 50%

Based on those assumptions, which I think are quite conservative, the likelihood of ALL the above events occurring is 1/320000.

That's ONE out of THREE HUNDRED TWENTY THOUSAND.

Cue Lloyd Christmas GIF!

More like Dr. Strange in “Avengers: Endgame” as he did the math too.

 

[RUBOB72]

You play to win the game (til the clock hits zero), man. Schiano has always understood this…and has actually caught h&ll for it.

I recall two ACC rivals played a game once…

No playing to the final whistle sure I agree but you ain’t scoring two Hail Mary’s and two onside kicks in under 30 seconds.

You play to win the game (til the clock hits zero), man. Schiano has always understood this…and has actually caught h&ll for it.

I recall two ACC rivals played a game once…

 

[rob kight]

Unlucky me had parlay with RU minus 10 and over at 33. I had the feeling that the missed field goal would come back and bite me in the behind.
But happy we won.

 

[RUBOB72]

You play to win the game (til the clock hits zero), man. Schiano has always understood this…and has actually caught h&ll for it.

I recall two ACC rivals played a game once…

They weren’t down 17 with 31 seconds.

 

[RUBOB72]

I believe onside kick recoveries are significantly greater than 10%…more like 20% when the onside is expected.

It’s not about recovery of an onside kick. It’s the reality that time is the main condition of whether it would be possible.Trust me you would lose any bet on that.

 

[Knight Owl]

They weren’t down 17 with 31 seconds.

Impressive that Elway converted a 4th and 17 on the “winning drive.” I wonder what the odds were on that?

 

[RUBOB72]

Impressive that Elway converted a 4th and 17 on the “winning drive.” I wonder what the odds were on that?

What are you talking about? They weren’t down 17 points with 31 secs remaining.

 

[Doctor Worm]

I believe onside kick recoveries are significantly greater than 10%…more like 20% when the onside is expected.

Historically you are correct. The rate is about 25%. However:

1) That includes surprise onside kicks where the success rate is much higher.

2) Recent rule changes have made the onside kick more difficult.

The current NFL success rate on expected onside kicks is about 6%. Not sure about NCAA.

 

[Knight Owl]

What are you talking about? They weren’t down 17 points with 31 secs remaining.

Slim odds are slim odds though, right? Elway should have taken a knee. And Cal should have taken a knee on the kick return (although actually a Cal player’s knee was down but refs missed it).

 

[RUBOB72]

Slim odds are slim odds though, right? Elway should have taken a knee. And Cal should have taken a knee on the kick return (although actually a Cal player’s knee was down but refs missed it).

Slim odds? What you posted today about the two onside kicks and two Hail Mary’s just ain’t possible no matter how you spin it. I agree you play til the final whistle but they had no chance at 31 seconds.Goodnite.