Northwestern vs Illinois
- Thread starter richthedentist
- Start date
Might be one of those where there isn’t a right answer - no one can really know because it depends on future results.
I do lean NW as I think it offers a better chance of helping RU in both the Big Ten standings and NCAA seeding. We also play NW twice vs. Illinois once and would make our win @ NW that much more impressive.
Downside is obvious…it would be that much more difficult to catch NW in the conference standings….though maybe we could spin that as a good thing…heading into the final game NW could have the 2 seed locked up while we’re still fighting for the double bye….NW it is imo.
I do lean NW as I think it offers a better chance of helping RU in both the Big Ten standings and NCAA seeding. We also play NW twice vs. Illinois once and would make our win @ NW that much more impressive.
Downside is obvious…it would be that much more difficult to catch NW in the conference standings….though maybe we could spin that as a good thing…heading into the final game NW could have the 2 seed locked up while we’re still fighting for the double bye….NW it is imo.
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Root for NW - just accept NW will finish 2nd and hope to stamp down teams like Illinois that would hurt our chances for a top 4 finish.
Tend to favor Northwestern for reasons notes above, particularly NCAA seeding for Illinois
Although if NW lose they will likely get dragged down into the mess of teams we're a part of -- their remaining schedule after tonight:
@ Maryland
Vs Penn State
@ Rutgers
Although if NW lose they will likely get dragged down into the mess of teams we're a part of -- their remaining schedule after tonight:
@ Maryland
Vs Penn State
@ Rutgers
I knew you would have the answer was going to specifically place the question to you!!
I see it as a win-win, all depends on how we finish up. Everything is so close, it's hard to say what would really help us more.
my considerations are all about making the NCAA tournament right now. Having Purdue and Northwestern finish as well as possible is important. Illinois around the RU seed line vicinity as well and if you want to even get into big 10 standings stuff its better they lose as much as possible
Exactly this. I'm not shifting into rooting for anything else until we win two more games. Otherwise I need to root for the scenario where Rutgers only wins one more and still makes it.
Interesting question .?NW has an extremely hard last 4 games as at Illinois , at Maryland and at Rutgers are games they are unlikely to win and they better guard Penn State at home. This is their first road game after the 3 home game wins. Like Iowa who had 3 home wins and now 2 straight road losses , I can see the same for NW so think they end up with 7 or 8 losses.
Illinois also a hard schedule ( NW , at Ohio State , Michigan , at Purdue ) so they will likely lose at least 1 more to get them to at least 8 losses.
I am rooting for Illinois so that our chances of the double bye get better, but of course we have to beat Michigan tonite. If we can get the W tonight and play well offensively and defensively showing we have adjusted to the Mag loss and Caleb’s absence , that bodes well for us finishing 3-1 at a minimum and more likely than not 4-0 to seal the double bye.
Illinois also a hard schedule ( NW , at Ohio State , Michigan , at Purdue ) so they will likely lose at least 1 more to get them to at least 8 losses.
I am rooting for Illinois so that our chances of the double bye get better, but of course we have to beat Michigan tonite. If we can get the W tonight and play well offensively and defensively showing we have adjusted to the Mag loss and Caleb’s absence , that bodes well for us finishing 3-1 at a minimum and more likely than not 4-0 to seal the double bye.
Mich game tonight is the one that guides my thoughts the rest of the way for the other teams. We lose, then all I care about is making NCAA. We win, then all the other games start becoming more important
if we do not win tonight, making the ncaa is all we need to think about, we are no lock yet so worrying about doube byes for a big ten tourney we are not equipped to do well in is short sighted imo
I would say Illinois. NW has 3 tough road games with this being one of them. They could lose all three and end up with 8 losses. Illinois finishes away at Purdue, a likely loss, giving them 8 losses at least.
Indiana plays at Purdue to give them an 8th loss. Maryland has what looks like no further losses, to end with 7 losses for second place.
If Rutgers can win out, and end with 7 losses (admittedly that would be tough), may be able to end up third or fourth, since we would have the tie breakers over NW.
The final question would be tie breakers with Indiana.
That's looking at the schedules from what I can tell.
Indiana plays at Purdue to give them an 8th loss. Maryland has what looks like no further losses, to end with 7 losses for second place.
If Rutgers can win out, and end with 7 losses (admittedly that would be tough), may be able to end up third or fourth, since we would have the tie breakers over NW.
The final question would be tie breakers with Indiana.
That's looking at the schedules from what I can tell.
I’m rooting against Northwestern. Momentum is a thing. Emotions impact performance. I don’t want Northwestern riding sky high when they come to Jersey. I want them thinking they can afford to lose because it’s a road game that doesn’t change their tournament profile.
Northwestern.
They could help us by winning their next two, at Illinois tonight and at Maryland.
We want the other seven loss teams to lose.
Purdue could help by winning at home against Indiana and Illinois.
We need tonight against Michigan more than a second win against Northwestern.
It is the only game we have against one of the 7 loss teams.
Michigan also has Wisc., at Illinois, and at Indiana. So three of their games against 7 loss teams.
They could help us by winning their next two, at Illinois tonight and at Maryland.
We want the other seven loss teams to lose.
Purdue could help by winning at home against Indiana and Illinois.
We need tonight against Michigan more than a second win against Northwestern.
It is the only game we have against one of the 7 loss teams.
Michigan also has Wisc., at Illinois, and at Indiana. So three of their games against 7 loss teams.
Not even sure why this is a question. We beat NW and lost to IL and have a shot to beat NW again, so there's that, plus, we can easily pass IL, but would be very difficult to pass NW, as part of our effort to get a double bye.
Catching NW isn't complicated. If we beat them on Senior Night, we are one back but have the tiebreaker. So we would need one more W from the other three games than they get from their other three. Tonight could be that swing.
Tonight is really the key as to if we need to worry about anyone but ourselves
Agreed, as the game we will be listed as the highest favorite by the oddsmakers. Our game tips 30 minutes before Illinois-NW so we should finish before they do.