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Not having a Big 12 title game could actually help Oklahoma
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<blockquote data-quote="wbgvwbgv" data-source="post: 129423669" data-attributes="member: 1417056"><p></p><p><img src="https://cdn3.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/wwXrWI042nf_QK_OYNegXQrH2yg=/0x346:1926x1630/2400x1600/cdn0.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/47739409/usa-today-8948658.0.jpg" alt="" class="fr-fic fr-dii fr-draggable " style="" /></p><p><span style="font-size: 12px"><strong>Remember when the Big 12 was doomed because it lacked a conference championship game?</strong></span></p><p></p><p>Using S&P+ win probabilities, here are the odds of winning out for each of the 13 teams in <a href="http://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2015/11/24/9795052/ncaa-football-rankings-2015-college-football-playoff-standings">the new top 25</a> most likely to qualify for the College Football Playoff (i.e., the top 12 and North Carolina):</p><p></p><p><strong>Probability*</strong> <strong>Odds of winning out</strong></p><p><strong></strong></p><p>1 Clemson (11-0) 76%</p><p>2 Alabama (10-1) 59%</p><p><span style="color: #ff0000">3 Oklahoma (10-1) 63% </span></p><p>4 Iowa (11-0) 20%</p><p>5 Michigan State (10-1) 37%</p><p>6 Notre Dame (10-1) 50%</p><p><span style="color: #ff0000">7 Baylor (9-1) 54% </span></p><p>8 Ohio State (10-1) 28%</p><p>9 Stanford (9-2) 27%</p><p>10 Michigan (9-2) 44%</p><p><span style="color: #ff0000">11 Oklahoma State (10-1) 37% </span></p><p>12 Florida (10-1) 16%</p><p></p><p>Note to the Big 12: this is why not having a title game could be a good thing. I understand <a href="http://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2015/4/30/8520987/big-12-championship-game-history-playoff">everybody flipped out last year</a> when Ohio State passed Baylor and TCU after destroying Wisconsin in the Big Ten Championship, but the "destroyed Wisconsin" part was the most important. A 13th game is a 13th opportunity for a loss.</p><p></p><p>If Oklahoma had to play in a Big 12 title game against, say, Baylor, a week after beating Oklahoma State, the Sooners' odds of winning out would be around 35 percent. As it stands, the Sooners have the third-best chance of winning out.</p><p></p><p>Iowa faces a tough game at Nebraska, but the Hawkeyes have a better than 50 percent chance of finishing 12-0. Their main problem is that they only have a 20 percent chance of finishing 13-0. That might even out for the conference if Michigan State is the team vanquishing the Hawkeyes, but what if it's two-loss Michigan? What if the Big Ten's spot ends up going to Notre Dame?</p><p></p><p><a href="http://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2015/11/25/9798650/ncaa-football-rankings-college-playoff-oklahoma-clemson-notre-dame">http://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2015/11/25/9798650/ncaa-football-rankings-college-playoff-oklahoma-clemson-notre-dame</a></p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="wbgvwbgv, post: 129423669, member: 1417056"] [SIZE=6][B][/B][/SIZE] [IMG]https://cdn3.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/wwXrWI042nf_QK_OYNegXQrH2yg=/0x346:1926x1630/2400x1600/cdn0.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/47739409/usa-today-8948658.0.jpg[/IMG] [SIZE=3][B]Remember when the Big 12 was doomed because it lacked a conference championship game?[/B][/SIZE] Using S&P+ win probabilities, here are the odds of winning out for each of the 13 teams in [URL='http://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2015/11/24/9795052/ncaa-football-rankings-2015-college-football-playoff-standings']the new top 25[/URL] most likely to qualify for the College Football Playoff (i.e., the top 12 and North Carolina): [B]Probability*[/B] [B]Odds of winning out [/B] 1 Clemson (11-0) 76% 2 Alabama (10-1) 59% [COLOR=#ff0000]3 Oklahoma (10-1) 63% [/COLOR] 4 Iowa (11-0) 20% 5 Michigan State (10-1) 37% 6 Notre Dame (10-1) 50% [COLOR=#ff0000]7 Baylor (9-1) 54% [/COLOR] 8 Ohio State (10-1) 28% 9 Stanford (9-2) 27% 10 Michigan (9-2) 44% [COLOR=#ff0000]11 Oklahoma State (10-1) 37% [/COLOR] 12 Florida (10-1) 16% Note to the Big 12: this is why not having a title game could be a good thing. I understand [URL='http://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2015/4/30/8520987/big-12-championship-game-history-playoff']everybody flipped out last year[/URL] when Ohio State passed Baylor and TCU after destroying Wisconsin in the Big Ten Championship, but the "destroyed Wisconsin" part was the most important. A 13th game is a 13th opportunity for a loss. If Oklahoma had to play in a Big 12 title game against, say, Baylor, a week after beating Oklahoma State, the Sooners' odds of winning out would be around 35 percent. As it stands, the Sooners have the third-best chance of winning out. Iowa faces a tough game at Nebraska, but the Hawkeyes have a better than 50 percent chance of finishing 12-0. Their main problem is that they only have a 20 percent chance of finishing 13-0. That might even out for the conference if Michigan State is the team vanquishing the Hawkeyes, but what if it's two-loss Michigan? What if the Big Ten's spot ends up going to Notre Dame? [URL]http://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2015/11/25/9798650/ncaa-football-rankings-college-playoff-oklahoma-clemson-notre-dame[/URL] [/QUOTE]
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Not having a Big 12 title game could actually help Oklahoma
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