Off topic.. Derby..
- Thread starter wfm101981
- Start date
I’m a long range toddy fan, also roadster. Always factor in the Florida derby winner in my bets so got to like Maximum too.
Grey magician is my long shot. Gotta love YouTube for all the prep races
Grey magician is my long shot. Gotta love YouTube for all the prep races
Yea, hard not to key Omaha beach. I like win win win and long range toddy to fill out some exotics.
The Florida Derby winner was a $16,000 claimer at the beginning of the meet and the Florida Derby itself was run extremely slow from start to finish.
Gray magician. He ran 2nd in Dubai to Plus Que Parfiat. That race was so slow I coulda beat them on foot lol.
Yes. He got the lead on slowwww slowwww fractions. He will not get that in the KD that's for sure. I also think the added distance will hurt him. He will have to go minimum 23sec 46 n change to sit on the lead . Imo toss him out.
Omaha Beach and the Baffert 3 are all top tier. I like Omaha and Game Winner the most of the group. War of Will is sitting on a big race I think. Post position draw will always means a lot. I like Tacitus and Tax a good amount as well.
I really like the #6 horse because he's got a lot of speed. But the #4 horse is proven at this distance so don't count him out! Also the #8 horse has the pedigree to quite possibly overpower the competition wire to wire. You seldom go wrong betting on Baffert so I'm definitely going to have all 3 of his horses grouped in separate box exactas with various random horses chosen on a whim at the last possible second before the start.
The #10 horse has been a dog in actual horse races but he has had good workouts lately so I will have him in the mix as well. The #1 horse has been in the money in all of his races so I will also bet him across the board. Can't discount the Florida Derby winner or the Arkansas Derby winner...so I'm gonna box trifecta they *** with a HTBNL (horse to be named later).
Pay attention because this is the best tip I have...the #14 horse is my "lock of the week pick" because he has connections with Barry Bonds & Sammy Sosa...so you know he's getting the best steroids money can buy. Betting him to win fo' sho'. No, not to show. Betting him to...ah hell...forget it.
The #12 horse isn't worth a damn but I'm still gonna include him in a super-quadfecta because the possible payoff is irresistible. That and I feel bad excluding any of the horses. Because how else can I be guaranteed to be "correct" unless I mention every last one of the horses that even remotely has a chance. Well, except for the #2 horse that is. Sure, the #2 horse has won two races "on the grass"...but I don't feel comfortable betting hard earned money on a horse that smokes weed in a big race like the KY Derby.
Good luck, fellas!!!
The #10 horse has been a dog in actual horse races but he has had good workouts lately so I will have him in the mix as well. The #1 horse has been in the money in all of his races so I will also bet him across the board. Can't discount the Florida Derby winner or the Arkansas Derby winner...so I'm gonna box trifecta they *** with a HTBNL (horse to be named later).
Pay attention because this is the best tip I have...the #14 horse is my "lock of the week pick" because he has connections with Barry Bonds & Sammy Sosa...so you know he's getting the best steroids money can buy. Betting him to win fo' sho'. No, not to show. Betting him to...ah hell...forget it.
The #12 horse isn't worth a damn but I'm still gonna include him in a super-quadfecta because the possible payoff is irresistible. That and I feel bad excluding any of the horses. Because how else can I be guaranteed to be "correct" unless I mention every last one of the horses that even remotely has a chance. Well, except for the #2 horse that is. Sure, the #2 horse has won two races "on the grass"...but I don't feel comfortable betting hard earned money on a horse that smokes weed in a big race like the KY Derby.
Good luck, fellas!!!
That was a lot of typing for a so-so joke that most people won't read.
Quite possibly your best take to date, GlenN
.Hey, a lot of people don't even know the post position draw isn't done yet so they make take your advice on the 6 horse.Quite possibly your best take to date, GlenN
Wow, ur reallllly funny. That was hilarious. Omg. You should be a comedian. Idiot.
Immediate reactions to the draw:
Hate seeing War of Will draw the rail as I think he offered good value. Now he'll have no choice but to go for the lead, which I think his connections were hoping to do anyway. I think he could take the field a long way if he gets away clean and is allowed to settle in.
Primo draws for OB, Tacitus and the Baffert trio. No speed to either side of OB, so he should be able to settle in a nice stalking trip.
Couple of intriguing longshots with favorable posts: Code of Honor and Vekoma. COH has yet to put it all together, basically crawling through the opening half of his races, only to engage and make a run late. His connections are obviously trying to gear him up with some really fast works, so I think he's set for his best effort to date. Considering his race record and speed figs, kind of amazed to see Vekoma at 20-1. He has an awkward style, but that's a lotta value on a horse seemingly in peak form with Castellano up.
Win Win Win seems like a tough horse with consistent speed, but has a habit of finding trouble.
By My Standards has been the wise guy horse but did not get any favors in the 3 spot.
If I had to rank the Baffert trio right now I go Improbable > Game Winner > Roadster. Think the first two are big shots.
Maximum Security...leaning towards tossing but maybe he's a freak?
Hate seeing War of Will draw the rail as I think he offered good value. Now he'll have no choice but to go for the lead, which I think his connections were hoping to do anyway. I think he could take the field a long way if he gets away clean and is allowed to settle in.
Primo draws for OB, Tacitus and the Baffert trio. No speed to either side of OB, so he should be able to settle in a nice stalking trip.
Couple of intriguing longshots with favorable posts: Code of Honor and Vekoma. COH has yet to put it all together, basically crawling through the opening half of his races, only to engage and make a run late. His connections are obviously trying to gear him up with some really fast works, so I think he's set for his best effort to date. Considering his race record and speed figs, kind of amazed to see Vekoma at 20-1. He has an awkward style, but that's a lotta value on a horse seemingly in peak form with Castellano up.
Win Win Win seems like a tough horse with consistent speed, but has a habit of finding trouble.
By My Standards has been the wise guy horse but did not get any favors in the 3 spot.
If I had to rank the Baffert trio right now I go Improbable > Game Winner > Roadster. Think the first two are big shots.
Maximum Security...leaning towards tossing but maybe he's a freak?
Nah. Not interested in interwebz drama. I already had my fun and made my point.
My pick? Win Win Win
My pick? Win Win Win
Run this fool? How does that even have meaning to this. What's he gonna run me, like he hustling me in a game of pool,,, robbing me at gunpoint ,, playing me 1 on 1 in something.... what you mean run this fool. Pfft
Welp. Back to the drawing board for me.
Getting them to the gate is over half the battle. Man. Sucks for Mandella.
Getting them to the gate is over half the battle. Man. Sucks for Mandella.
I think the biggest winner of the scratch is Win Win Win. No pun intended. It gets him out of the last place in the regular starting gate and moves him in one. It should help him a little to avoid those outside horses coming in on him.
If I were some of these jockeys I would worry about my mounts. Johnny V's first Derby winner was Animal Kingdom. Robbie Albarado was supposed to ride him and Velazquez was riding Verrrazano. I know Albarado got stepped on by a horse but he had other mounts that Derby day. If you've got a chance to get Mike Smith you probably have to do it. It's a cutthroat game.
My former fraternity brother is Mike Smith’s agent. I’ve reached out to him for a scoop . . . he’s not returning my queries!
He was actually one of my closer frat brothers. His uncle was the owner of Real Quiet. He called me from the winner's circle in '98!
The last time I really talked to him about horse racing was the year Bodemeister ran second to I'll Have Another in 2012. His team was on Bodemeister and he told me they were just going to try and outrun everyone. The only horse that worried him was I'll Have Another because he knew that was the gutsiest horse. So I bet that exacta, which was nice. I didn't really believe in Bodemeister that year and didn't think he'd hit the board. So he at least talked me into a little bit of money!
We've talked about meeting up for a Derby experience in Louisville but he's pretty busy during this time of year and is also a good family man. He lives in California and usually just stays there. Good dude. His uncle is a trip.
The last time I really talked to him about horse racing was the year Bodemeister ran second to I'll Have Another in 2012. His team was on Bodemeister and he told me they were just going to try and outrun everyone. The only horse that worried him was I'll Have Another because he knew that was the gutsiest horse. So I bet that exacta, which was nice. I didn't really believe in Bodemeister that year and didn't think he'd hit the board. So he at least talked me into a little bit of money!
We've talked about meeting up for a Derby experience in Louisville but he's pretty busy during this time of year and is also a good family man. He lives in California and usually just stays there. Good dude. His uncle is a trip.
Newb question for someone who just makes a few cheap bets for fun..
But does every horse just move in one spot now that Omaha is out? How does that really help Win Win Win?
It's because of the auxiliary starting gate. The Derby is the only race run in America with more than 14 horses. The first gate holds 14 and the rest go in the second gate. It moves him from the last spot in the first starting gate. The outside horses tend to come in on that outside horse.
Probably not going to grandstands this year but don’t really want to go to the infield with the college drunks.
Will general admission let you basically walk around Churchill and bet and just watch it on the screen? Or are you not even allowed to walk around the Churchill lobby if you get that ticket? Not sure how that works with GA.
Will general admission let you basically walk around Churchill and bet and just watch it on the screen? Or are you not even allowed to walk around the Churchill lobby if you get that ticket? Not sure how that works with GA.
Is the aux gate set up differently than the main 14-horse gate? Like somehow in front of it, or in an awkward way?
Nope but there is a gap between them where they hook them together.
Yeah, that’s what the wife is saying. Probably going to cost my nearly $400 but whatever. It rained like crazy last year too.
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I loved bob baffert on eastbound and down. Dude loves the best overall horse to a scratch but his other 3 could win or finish 1-2-3. Every year at this time you can always plan on seeing him celebrating.
[/URL]I loved bob baffert on eastbound and down. Dude loves the best overall horse to a scratch but his other 3 could win or finish 1-2-3. Every year at this time you can always plan on seeing him celebrating.