Ok 4 weekends left. Probably need top 4 in conference finish.

[dawgphd]

Conf Standing 4/21 Remaining Games
1. VU 16-2 MSU, @USC, @KY, BAMA 25-5
2. LSU 15-3 USC, UF, @TAM, UM 24-6
3/4 ARK 11-7 @UGA,@KY, UT, @AUB 17-13
USC 11-7 @LSU, VU, UGA, @MSU 16-14
5/6/7 MSU 10-8 @VU, BAMA @UM, USC 17-13
UF 10-8 UT,@LSU,AUB , @ UGA 18-12
UM 10-8 KY, @AUB, MSU, @LSU 17-13
8 BAMA 9-9 TAM,@MSU, MIZZ, @VU 16-14


Just for Fun Predicted Finish:
1 VU 25-5
2 LSU 24-6
3 UF 18-12
4/5/6 ARK, MSU, UM 17-13
7/8 BAMA, USC 16-14

Understatements of the year:
Series is Oxford is HUGE for MSU & UM.
Schedule gods smile on UF

 

[drt7891]

I know it's been said before, but just because a team has a "favorable" schedule down the stretch does NOT mean that a better record necessarily makes them better off. If UF finished with Auburn, Mizzou, Georgia, and Tennessee and we finished with Vandy, USCe, OM, and Alabama (which we do), UF goes 8-4 and we go 6-6 or 7-5 without getting swept, our schedule looks better... hands down. Unless you can sweep those bad teams, they do you no favors.

 

[engie]

At this point IMO Arky's RPI likely prevents them from being in the hosting conversation -- and UF's overall record really, really hurts them as well. Those two teams would have to run the table in conference to even have a chance to steal our hosting spot.

The legit competition, right now, is between us, USCe, and OM. Resumes as of today:

MSU: RPI #10, SOS #20, 17-0 vs sub100, 13-8 vs top 50, 2-2 vs 51-100(both to Arky)
USCe: RPI #11, SOS #39, 15-2 vs sub100, 8-4 vs top 50, 5-4 vs 51-100(3 to Arky -- furman barely in top 100)
OM: RPI #19, SOS #31, 17-2 vs sub100, 5-8 vs top 50, 7-2 vs 51-100(1 to Arky -- 1 to USM)

 

[drt7891]

At this point IMO Arky's RPI likely prevents them from being in the hosting conversation -- and UF's overall record really, really hurts them as well. Those two teams would have to run the table in conference to even have a chance to steal our hosting spot.

The legit competition, right now, is between us, USCe, and OM. Resumes as of today:

MSU: RPI #10, SOS #20, 17-0 vs sub100, 13-8 vs top 50, 2-2 vs 51-100(both to Arky)
USCe: RPI #11, SOS #39, 15-2 vs sub100, 8-4 vs top 50, 5-4 vs 51-100(3 to Arky -- furman barely in top 100)
OM: RPI #19, SOS #31, 17-2 vs sub100, 5-8 vs top 50, 7-2 vs 51-100(1 to Arky -- 1 to USM)

This is exactly why we have the nod (right now) over OM in the hosting/national seed conversation. If Arkansas can win just enough to get them over the Top 50 hump, we will look even better.

 

[CadaverDawg]

At this point IMO Arky's RPI likely prevents them from being in the hosting conversation -- and UF's overall record really, really hurts them as well. Those two teams would have to run the table in conference to even have a chance to steal our hosting spot.

The legit competition, right now, is between us, USCe, and OM. Resumes as of today:

MSU: RPI #10, SOS #20, 17-0 vs sub100, 13-8 vs top 50, 2-2 vs 51-100(both to Arky)
USCe: RPI #11, SOS #39, 15-2 vs sub100, 8-4 vs top 50, 5-4 vs 51-100(3 to Arky -- furman barely in top 100)
OM: RPI #19, SOS #31, 17-2 vs sub100, 5-8 vs top 50, 7-2 vs 51-100(1 to Arky -- 1 to USM)

Basically it's a 12 game playoff between these 3 teams^. USC having a one game edge in the SEC standings, but a much tougher 12 game stretch. Ole Miss with the most work to do, due to RPI and SOS numbers. And MSU with great RPI and SOS, but just needing to win games.

USC has:
@LSU
Vandy
UGA
@MSU

MSU has:
@Vandy
Alabama
@Ole Miss
USC

Ole Miss has:
Kentucky
@Auburn
MSU
@LSU

I think Ole Miss will have to finish a game better than us and USC to have a chance. I think we can be tied with USC, but we need to win that final series against them.

Based on each of these 3 team's remaining schedules, let's come up with how we predict each to finish, and see what we think of our chances at that point.

I think USC likely goes 6-6.
I think we likely go 7-5.
I think Ole Miss likely goes 6-6.

How do you think each finishes?

 

[drt7891]

OM's schedule is deceptively tough from here out. UK and Auburn are both beatable, but both are capable of winning 2 or 3 apiece if the ball falls where they want it to. OM can't afford to lose either series if they want to continue being in the discussion.

I feel Cohen will have us ready to play them because he knows the importance of that series. Cohen has never been swept by them, even when we were terrible, and he's only lost one series to them in his time here. I may have upset the superstitious baseball gods, but I feel good about that series.

This UT sweep was simply a formality, but it won't help them much in the long run... it just didn't hurt them. UT is awful.

We need to:
-Not get swept at Vandy
-Win at least 2 against Bama (a sweep would be ideal, but they can be a pesky team)
-Not get swept in Oxford (1-2 would be par for the hole, 2-1 will be ideal. This will be a huge set-up series for us and winning it in Oxford will set us up very well for USCe)

USCe has to:
- win 1 against LSU (which I think they do)
- win 1 against Vandy (which I think they easily do... they could very well win this series, and if they do, that makes our series with them and OM a must-win)
- win 2 of 3 against UGA

And I feel that sets up a playoff in Starkville for a regional host spot. That will make for an epic weekend, if it sets up like this.

 

[MSUDC11]

The competition is for two spots, not one. If the season ended today, SC and MSU would both be hosting.

We just need to have a better resume than one of them to host, not necessarily both.

We need an LSU sweep of SC and a UK series win in Oxford. If that happens and we win at least one in Nashville, we are clearly in the driver's seat with three weeks left.

 

[drt7891]

We can't assume 4 spots for the SEC. The SEC only got 3 host spots last year. Maybe the move to 14 teams helps in that cause, but 4 sites are not necessarily a given.

 

[patdog]

Exactly. The SEC has hosted both 3 and 5 regionals in recent years. There just isn't a set number. Bottom line is, we will host unless we 17 it up down the stretch. No matter how many other SEC teams host.

 

[engie]

Exactly. The SEC has hosted both 3 and 5 regionals in recent years. There just isn't a set number. Bottom line is, we will host unless we 17 it up down the stretch. No matter how many other SEC teams host.

Exactly.

No SEC team has ever been denied a host spot with an RPI in the top 10.

Now, there have been some in the past that were denied in the teen range -- generally for either bad conference records or bad nonconference records. Personally, I don't even think they really even look at SEC conference records this year(they shouldn't) -- not enough parity for it to mean much anymore with the scheduling discrepancies. I could see them using a head-to-head as a tiebreaker however...

 

[drt7891]

Exactly.

No SEC team has ever been denied a host spot with an RPI in the top 10.

Now, there have been some in the past that were denied in the teen range -- generally for either bad conference records or bad nonconference records. Personally, I don't even think they really even look at SEC conference records this year(they shouldn't) -- not enough parity for it to mean much anymore with the scheduling discrepancies. I could see them using a head-to-head as a tiebreaker however...

Right. We can't leave this decision in the hands of the committee with a marginal record. We show them we belong in a host spot and give them no reason to doubt us. We do that by winning games. Just like you don't play in a way to leave the results of games in the hands of officials, we don't need to leave our fate in the hands of the committee. Give them no choice.

 

[bulldogcountry1]

Any way you look at it, the deck is stacked against us.

1. We control our own fate. How well does that usually work out for MSU teams?
2. We got the biggest screw job schedule in the history of college baseball. Are they going to notice or care?
3. ARK has the easiest schedule, they are ranked high, and they have the head to head advantage.
4. UF has it pretty easy. We have the head to head advantage, but they have a strong RPI.
5. When it all shakes out, and we have 3rd best SEC RPI and are 4th or worse in the league, are we still going to get selected over the others? Doubt it.

I hate to be the wet blanket, but I don't see how this is going to work out well for us, as far as hosting.

 

[Fktdawg]

Any way you look at it, the deck is stacked against us.

1. We control our own fate. How well does that usually work out for MSU teams?
2. We got the biggest screw job schedule in the history of college baseball. Are they going to notice or care?
3. ARK has the easiest schedule, they are ranked high, and they have the head to head advantage.
4. UF has it pretty easy. We have the head to head advantage, but they have a strong RPI.
5. When it all shakes out, and we have 3rd best SEC RPI and are 4th or worse in the league, are we still going to get selected over the others? Doubt it.

I hate to be the wet blanket, but I don't see how this is going to work out well for us, as far as hosting.

Yep I agree here.

When it comes to MSU, we have rarely "done our part" when it was needed.


Sure, all we need to do is win our games but I just don't have that much confidence in this team with these last few road series. We've beat ourselves wayyy too many times and continue to make stupid mistakes that give games away.

And given our weak hitting lineup combined with the starting pitching we will be facing...it's gonna be tough for sure.

I hope like hell we cut out the mistakes and take care of business these last 4 series.

Somehow winning 2 this weekend at vandy would all but lock up a national seed for the time being.

 

[patdog]

How do you manage to even get out of bed in the morning with that over-exaggerated negative attidute? What more could we realistically ask for at this point? We have a top-8 RPI and that won't change too much alomost no matter how we finish out the season. To answer your questions:

1. Sometimes pretty well, sometimes not so well.
2. You better believe they will notice our #1 SOS ranking at the end of the year and will reward it appropriately.
3. Arkansas has some real RPI issues for hosting.
4. We have the stronger RPI and a much better record.
5. No way we don't host with a top-4 SEC RPI. Not a chance.

 

[bulldogcountry1]

How do you manage to even get out of bed in the morning with that over-exaggerated negative attidute? What more could we realistically ask for at this point?

Oh, I don't know...Mizzou instead of Vandy or UT instead of USCe.

 

[drt7891]

Oh, I don't know...Mizzou instead of Vandy or UT instead of USCe.

I'd take going 2-1 against USCe or Vandy as opposed to sweeping UT or Mizzou any day of the week. So would the committee. Even if we lose 2 to vandy, thats nothing to be ashamed of. People melting down over our schedule compared to Florida or Arkansas' do not understand how much weight ours can carry. Overall records don't mean near as much if you are talking about a game or 2 difference and a 15+ difference in RPI.

 

[skb124]

"Like Al Davis said, 'Just win,baby, win." - Snoop Dogg

 

[Bulldog from Birth]

The Bottom Line

We're 10-8 right now. If we finish:

4-8 or worse put us at at 14-16 or worse and a 0% chance to host a regional. No team with a sub-.500 conference recored is being awarded a host bid. Even if our RPI is Top 16.
5-7 puts us at 15-15. That's probably a 25% chance of hosting. A LOT would have to go our way for that scenario to work out for us.
6-6 put us at 16-14. And probably about a 75% chance of hosting with our RPI. But depending on how things fell with the rest of the SEC (UM and USC), I wouldn't say it's a lock.
7-5 down the stretch, that gets us to 17-13 and a 100% of hosting. I don't care what happens anywhere else. Our record and RPI will be too high, even if it meant 5 SEC host sites.
8-4 or better =18-12 or better, and we'll be square on the conversation for a Top 8 national seed.

My guess is we go 6-6 from here on out. Gotta find a way to get one this weekend in Nashville.

BFB