Does anyone think Johnny Football wouldn't have driven the ball right down the long field just like the short? There was plenty of time on the clock. Might not be such a bad decision after all, a 1st down iced the game.
On Freeze's alleged stupid 4th down call......
- Thread starter Spanky.sixpack
- Start date
I don't think too many people disagree with the call to go for it, but the play called was terrible.
Hahaha that aint no ****. Spanky, you should just stop posting forever. You are one of the worst
Last edited:
It's all percentages:
Let's estimate Texas A&M has a 75% chance of getting a TD if you don't get the first down, and a 45% chance if you punt it to them.
That means your chances of winning if you punt are 45%, and if you go for it are [(1-x)(.25) + x] if you go for it, where x is the probability of converting the first down.
In order for going for it to be the right call, solve for [(1-x)(.25) + x] > .45, or x > .4
If you have a playcall that gives you a 40% chance or better to convert, it's optimal to go for it. I'm sure Ole Miss has one of those for 4th and inches, but I don't think they picked the right one.
If you disagree with the 75% and the 45%, feel free to adjust the equation accordingly, but you're going to find that in Ole Miss's situation with 4th and inches, it's almost always going to be the right call to go for it as long as you pick the right play.
Let's estimate Texas A&M has a 75% chance of getting a TD if you don't get the first down, and a 45% chance if you punt it to them.
That means your chances of winning if you punt are 45%, and if you go for it are [(1-x)(.25) + x] if you go for it, where x is the probability of converting the first down.
In order for going for it to be the right call, solve for [(1-x)(.25) + x] > .45, or x > .4
If you have a playcall that gives you a 40% chance or better to convert, it's optimal to go for it. I'm sure Ole Miss has one of those for 4th and inches, but I don't think they picked the right one.
If you disagree with the 75% and the 45%, feel free to adjust the equation accordingly, but you're going to find that in Ole Miss's situation with 4th and inches, it's almost always going to be the right call to go for it as long as you pick the right play.
Actually Spanky is right on this one, and no one seems to have mentioned it. I was thinking this same thing earlier today.
After stopping Ole Miss on 4th down, Texas A&M got the ball on OM's 39 and scored in 4 plays in about a minute and a half. When they scored there was still almost 2 minutes left. Their previous drive went 88 yards in less than 2 minutes (after the near safety, A&M went 99 yards in 3 plays).
Another 40 yards from a punt likely would not have stopped A&M from scoring the winning TD.
After stopping Ole Miss on 4th down, Texas A&M got the ball on OM's 39 and scored in 4 plays in about a minute and a half. When they scored there was still almost 2 minutes left. Their previous drive went 88 yards in less than 2 minutes (after the near safety, A&M went 99 yards in 3 plays).
Another 40 yards from a punt likely would not have stopped A&M from scoring the winning TD.
Ha, no doubt. What was even worse is that they lined up in the shotgun formation and pulled their lineman. Freeze may have them playing better than we thought, but that was just a stupid dubmass call.
Freeze saw the prior drive just like everyone else did. Once A&M quit ending drives with turnovers, Ole Miss's defense got exposed. He had no faith in his defense.
Correct. They might've eaten that last 2 minutes off the clock....
and wouldn't have given Ole Miss a chance to drive down the field at the end.
We forget that Ole Miss likely still wins the game (or at the minimum ties it) if Wallace doesn't throw that pick.
and wouldn't have given Ole Miss a chance to drive down the field at the end.
We forget that Ole Miss likely still wins the game (or at the minimum ties it) if Wallace doesn't throw that pick.
They'd ripped them up all night with that play.....
but I'm just playing devil's advocate.
I don't think you can make that call, EVER, in that situation. Give yourself a chance. If Texas A&M had driven the field TWICE to win, I think Freeze and Ole Miss fans could live with that. As it is, ole Hugh is sick to his stomach for the utter Orgeronian stupidity.
but I'm just playing devil's advocate.
I don't think you can make that call, EVER, in that situation. Give yourself a chance. If Texas A&M had driven the field TWICE to win, I think Freeze and Ole Miss fans could live with that. As it is, ole Hugh is sick to his stomach for the utter Orgeronian stupidity.
I agree with this post. It's a basic question... who do you think has the best shot to win the game for you, offense or defense? In Freeze's case, he (and anyone with sense for that matter) would have answered offense. If it were us in that situation, you punt it every time and trust the defense takes care of business. OM's defense was slashed all night, but caught breaks by getting turnovers. I don't blame Freeze at all for that call... he went with the unit he thought had the best chance of winning the game for him.
Last edited:
Do you blame him for the play call? Because it was dumber than the decision to go for it.
What is your point? That was seriously one of the worst posts I've ever read, man.
Agree. People are forgetting a&m had time outs. Even had the rebs gotten the 1st, it wasn't over yet... Thiough a worse situation for sure.
It's was just as dumb as the first 4th down call earlier in the game, except the last one was with an exhausted D (their lack of depth) and knowing aTm needed a TD and not just a FG. You need a defense in this league, and if you don't have one you have to gamble on making all three 4th down calls ... But he only got 2/3.
I agree with you more often than not, but I disagree on this one. You are going too mathematical and losing a bit of practicality on it.
A&M's drives went as follows(in order):
Rush TD (4 plays 75yds)
Fumble (3 plays 20yds)
Turnover on Downs (9 plays 44yds)
Interception (4 plays 16yds)
Field Goal (13 plays 81yds)
Punt (8 plays 23yds)
Fumble (5 plays 50yds)
Fumble (7 plays 44yds)
Interception (6 plays 34yds)
Rush TD (5 plays 88yds)
Pass TD (4 plays 39yds)
In driving the whole field, A&M was 2 for 10 on scoring touchdowns. 20%.
What was the likelihood of A&M getting the 39yds needed for a TD if the play failed? 60% given the length of their previous drives.
OM chance of A&M drive failing if you punt = 80%
OM chance of A&M drive failing if the 4th down fails = 40%
You are focusing far too much energy on determining the probability of that single first down for Ole Miss, which is still trivial if it is successful. There was 3:22 left in the game when OM went for it. A&M had all 3 timeouts in play. So, simply getting THAT first down still is not going to be enough to ice the game by running out the clock. At minimal, you have to get one more first down which would require moving the chains 3 times in a sustained drive. Ole Miss was 2 for 12 on sustaining previous drives to get a 3rd first down(removing from consideration the two drives they actually scored on without getting a 3rd first down).
There was a 16.7% chance OM was going to get that third first down needed to effectively ice the game IF they got the first one. Assuming there was a 75% chance that they DO convert on 4th down play, there is only a 15.125% chance that OM gets another first down and can ice the game offensively. Otherwise, you are looking at either punting to A&M, or turning it over on downs to A&M between the 40 and 50 with less time on the clock. Granted, you are dealing with less time and more distance for them, but to what extent? That is impossible to say. That extra distance and time would have to give you an additional 25% chance of winning the game just to break even with the initial punt scenario. That's a pretty tall order IMO... and a virtually impossible statistical analysis...
IF that one first down could have iced the game(A&M out of timeouts or whatever), then this discussion is worthwhile. Since it wasn't, you've got to punt for the 80% chance to get a stop.
Any football coach would punt the ball every time...
A girls basketball coach or a crazy Cajun recruiter goes for it..
A girls basketball coach or a crazy Cajun recruiter goes for it..
Understanding the percentages in 4th and short and how they "say" the coach should go for it, I would rather look at the percentages for how often a team loses when giving up the ball in their side of the field with less than 5 minutes left in the game. Something like that is probably more indicative.
If Freeze runs out the clock to end the 1st half instead of trying a pass w 40 seconds left from your own 35-40, they go in up by 7. That was huge for A&M to go in tied. I know. Yes Freeze was trying to get more points on the board. But most coaches would've tried a draw there to try and catch the d in prevent and get some cheap yards. Then once on the plus side start with the passing.
Going for the 4th down wasn't a bad decision but a sneak by Mackie or even Bruneti would've been the better choice.
Ah hindsight is a *****.
Going for the 4th down wasn't a bad decision but a sneak by Mackie or even Bruneti would've been the better choice.
Ah hindsight is a *****.
Last edited:
With a 6'4" QB, if your gonna try it, run the sneak from under center. Too
much can go wrong (and it did) trying to run a dive from the shotgun.
much can go wrong (and it did) trying to run a dive from the shotgun.
It's a Hero/Goat call... I do know this, though...
Not punting and losing the game is a worse call than punting and then losing the game.
Not punting and losing the game is a worse call than punting and then losing the game.
^^ This ^^
Tubberville made similar calls, the team made the plays, and he was diefied in Oxford as a football god/genius, i.e., the "Riverboat Gambler."
Tubberville made similar calls, the team made the plays, and he was diefied in Oxford as a football god/genius, i.e., the "Riverboat Gambler."
I respect Freeze for his call. He obviously wanted to win.
He knew his team had been successful on 3rd and 4th downs and that his defense is garbage. He made the right decision, but the wrong play call. A sneak would have won the game.
Freeze is a smart coach. His crazy option schemes are very effective, but he is going to have to learn to adjust his risk taking with real SEC defenses. I don't know if he is going to get enough rope at UM to get in the talent he needs to be successful. I don't know if anyone ever will...
He knew his team had been successful on 3rd and 4th downs and that his defense is garbage. He made the right decision, but the wrong play call. A sneak would have won the game.
Freeze is a smart coach. His crazy option schemes are very effective, but he is going to have to learn to adjust his risk taking with real SEC defenses. I don't know if he is going to get enough rope at UM to get in the talent he needs to be successful. I don't know if anyone ever will...