OT: bitcoin bros
- Thread starter horshack.sixpack
- Start date
Ray Kurzweil predicted it to happen by the year 2045. That's overly optimistic if such a thing is even possible, which I'm going with highly unlikely.
The idea that we’d need an entirely new cryptocurrency isn’t accurate. Bitcoin’s protocol can be upgraded. In fact, proposals for post-quantum signature schemes already exist and could be integrated via soft forks or other consensus changes if needed, long before quantum computers become dangerous.
Also, if quantum computing could break bitcoin, it could also break TLS, banks, and government encryption — so this is a global problem with global resources already working on solutions. Bitcoin benefits from those developments, too.
That's why I said "could". As of right now we don't know if the changes required are feasible before quantum computing is mature enough to generate keys. Of course Bitcoin can be upgraded but there are hurdles that would take years to work out for all the levels of participants.
From elsewhere on the web:
Nov 15, 2024
Once this global agreement on protocol changes and updates happen (a process that can span years), there’s still the need to migrate wallets to be post-quantum secure.
The co-authoers/panelists research indicates that performing a full upgrade would require at least 76.16 days of continuous processing time, during which the Bitcoin network would need to be dedicated solely to the upgrade process. This period doesn’t account for realistic constraints like network overhead, transaction verification times, and the impossibility of halting all other transactions. Spreading the upgrade over a longer period to minimize disruption would only extend the total time required, potentially exceeding practical limits before quantum computers become a real threat. To be determined.
So years of theory, debate, accession, coordination with participants in the network, and controlled testing. Then months to roll out. The clock is ticking. For the record I hope they beat it because if they do have to switch to a completely new protocol you no longer have bitcoin and a lot of people are going to lose a lot of wealth.