OT: Can some convince me Facebook is worth $100,000,000,000?

[EmoryBellard]

I'm not some old guy - I get technology/social media? But $100B??? For that kind of skrilla, you could buy the BNSF rail line (recently sold to Berkshire Hathaway for $34B), Georgia Pacific (recently sold to Koch Bros for $20B), the New York Yankees (I believe I heard they are worth a billion), and have enough left for a nearly 10% stake in Apple (currently valued at $500B).

I am having trouble believing facebook has anywhere near the earning power and value of the above, COMBINED. Maybe I'm wrong.

 

[EmoryBellard]

I'm not some old guy - I get technology/social media? But $100B??? For that kind of skrilla, you could buy the BNSF rail line (recently sold to Berkshire Hathaway for $34B), Georgia Pacific (recently sold to Koch Bros for $20B), the New York Yankees (I believe I heard they are worth a billion), and have enough left for a nearly 10% stake in Apple (currently valued at $500B).

I am having trouble believing facebook has anywhere near the earning power and value of the above, COMBINED. Maybe I'm wrong.

 

[cb6228]

I can't agree more, but the Bill Clinton "boom era" was based on dotcoms and set up the economy for failure. <div>
</div><div>This is small pocket book, but funny as hell. Chronicles all of the stupid start up internet companies that had IPOs worth 100s of millions and all went bust. But their creators made out like bandits.</div><div>
</div><div>http://www.amazon.com/Fd-Companies-Spectacular-Dot-Com-Flameouts/dp/0743228626
</div><div>
</div><div>Think of the guy that created the pet rock "he made a million dollars"</div><div>
</div>

 

[Wizard.sixpack]

[url="http://lmgtfy.com/?q=why+is+facebook+worth+so+much"]link[/url]

 

[aTotal360]

Last year, roughly 1 out of ever 4 minutes spent browsing the internet in the US was spend on Facebook. And now it is the most visited content provider on mobile devices.

 

[EmoryBellard]

I get a lot of people see it. And I'm not suggesting it's not worth a grip. But $100B? Call me a Luddite, I do not get that at all.

 

[EmoryBellard]

[No message]

 

[Johnson85]

but I saw an article discussing how facebook advertisements have an extremely high click rate. Not sure what the terminology they used, but basically Facebook has so much information on you (and your friends) that they can tailor the ads presented to you much more effectively than other sites can using whatever cookies are available to them. I've never clicked on an ad from facebook, but apparently lots of people do; or at least, multiples of what you would expect with other typical advertisements.

The 100B may still be way high, but this is not like the old internet startups where they don't even know how to monetize their product yet. My understanding from the article is that they already have a working and highly profitable business model right now; it's just a matter of expanding it to take advantage of the network effects they already enjoy.

 

[Shmuley]

just how over-valued this **** is. In order to support a $100B capitalization, FB needs to generate over $20 in ad revenue per year per user. It currently produces slightly more that $3.90 per user per year in ad revenue.

 

[Barkman Turner Overdrive]

NPR or Err America?

 

[DAWG61]

and just type in the letter "F". Same thing as Twitter. Just type in "T". Have you seen how long girls spend on Facebook?

 

[EmoryBellard]

If this isn't McClurian math, they and their investors are beyond 17ed. They already have basically everyone they are gonna get save the Chinamen and people living in huts (who probably aren't getting highspeed intertubes anytime soon)

 

[FlabLoser]

but I saw an article discussing how facebook advertisements have an extremely high click rate. Not sure what the terminology they used, but basically Facebook has so much information on you (and your friends) that they can tailor the ads presented to you much more effectively than other sites can using whatever cookies are available to them. I've never clicked on an ad from facebook, but apparently lots of people do; or at least, multiples of what you would expect with other typical advertisements.

The 100B may still be way high, but this is not like the old internet startups where they don't even know how to monetize their product yet. My understanding from the article is that they already have a working and highly profitable business model right now; it's just a matter of expanding it to take advantage of the network effects they already enjoy.

I don't know what FB is worth.

But I know they are sitting on an advertiser's gold mine, the likes of which has never been seen in human history. They know more about their massive audience than any advertising or marketing firm has ever known. Comparing them to anything else that does market research is like comparing Google to a card catalog at a public library.

 

[aTotal360]

<div>That's a whole lot of advertising potential.</div><div>Link</div>

 

[FlabLoser]

They know way more about each one of their users than any other advertiser does. You want to advertise to people male, age 35-40 who drive an F-150 and married to someone from Mobile, AL and a have dog named Buffy? No problem...

 

[EmoryBellard]

ale, age 35-40 who drive an F-150 and married to someone from Mobile, AL and a have dog named Buffy? No problem...

1) He calls people "bub" a LOT.

2) His voice is generally high-pitched, but when he gets to talking 'bout th' TIHHHHYYD, the pitch is at levels humans can barely hear.

 

[Shmuley]

nm

 

[JackShephard]

in that it is very valuable, but that it is also extremely overvalued at this point in time. Tons of people are going to buy it the second it hits and have a stock that is worth considerably less in short order. Not saying it won't eventually go back up and become profitable in the long run, but a lot of people are going to overpay considerably up front.</p>

 

[GTAdawg]

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Spelling error

 

[kired]

Maybe a restaurant, food product, or sports team? Ever been tagged somewhere, listed your work history, favorite movies, music, etc? Are there particular people you correspond with more than anyone else? People you are normally tagged with?<div>
</div><div>It's really amazing how much information fb has on the typical user and how much they probably know about us that we may not even realize about ourselves.</div>

 

[DerHntr]

That their entire wall would only be further littered with completely irrelevant daily happenings of mommies and their kids, of which the vast majority are people you haven't seen nor heard from since 17ing elementary school or junior high.

I also finally recognized that I still don't like other people that much.

/y'all are correct about ads though. My wife's wall is nothing but ads from the companies' pages she has "liked".

 

[karlchilders.sixpack]

IT IS,.... All of them are members.

THAT is ALL that matters.

 

[patdog]

<div>It's really amazing how much information fb has on the typical user and how much they probably know about us that we may not even realize about ourselves.</div>

Here's a very interesting article about just how good they are. I thought it was funny that when they realized it was spooking women that they knew they were pregnant they just started burying the coupons for baby products in a mailout with a lot of other unrelated coupons so the women would just assume they got the same mailout everyone else did.

]

 

[dawgman42]

Never used it, never needed it; I thought you had to be a chick or gay to use it that much. Guess that shows you what international consumerism is composed of these days.

 

[jcd5816]

My advice, if you want to buy, wait for the washout. The first day out it starts trading, it will likely move hard and fast. Who knows what the valuation is, it really does not matter at this point. The only thing I know is that the masses(the public) want to buy this stock with both fists. I would wait till they get washed out. I trade for a living, though not stocks, but it really is all the same and I see this behavior all the time. I read an article in the WSJ about a high school investment club and the teacher ask who would buy Facebook, everyone raised their hands. I am not saying it will not be a great company or stock one day, but unless you are prepared to weather a 30-50% drawdown, wait and buy it later.

 

[dawgstudent]

of the Facebook price. What a bargain!!!

 

[xxxWalkTheDawg]

Look at Yahoo 10 years ago and then today. What exactly are these billions of sale of stock backed by? A building with servers? Facebook will not be the juggernaut that it is now down the road. Ask Myspace how things come and go. <div>
</div><div>A competitor will come along. It may already be out there. And you have a 28 year old CEO that has just sat and watched his company grow without a whole lot of hard decision making. Will he be able to keep it on top? The trend in the past says no. </div>

 

[Buford T. Justice]

Myspace was once big.

You can even see where pinterest is starting to draw some people away from facebook.

Facebook is huge. I just don't see 100 billion. Look at Groupon stock drop.

 

[patdog]

Only the very rich get the good deals on any IPO. And with Facebook, there's going to be a lot more demand than usual just because everyone's so familiar with the name. I think it's going to be a very good company for a long time, but I wouldn't touch that stock until the initial settling out happens. Some people are going to lose 20% - 50% of what they put into it soon after it goes public. The people after them may make some money though.

 

[BulldogBlitz]

That their entire wall would only be further littered with completely irrelevant daily happenings of mommies and their kids, of which the vast majority are people you haven't seen nor heard from since 17ing elementary school or junior high.<span style="font-weight: bold;">

I also finally recognized that I still don't like other people that much.
</span>

/y'all are correct about ads though. My wife's wall is nothing but ads from the companies' pages she has "liked".

that's hilarious. my wife has been on facebook a while, mostly sharing baby pics, etc. i decided i might want to be on there... i filled out the info to set up the account and the next morning i had contact from people i had not seen in 25+ years (and didn't want to see or talk to again). needless to say, but my account didn't last 24 hours.

i don't think i'm missing much at this point.