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OT: Hurricane Hilary to Impact Mexican Coast and probably SoCal/SW-US

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RU848789

Heisman
Jul 27, 2001
64,385
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Hurricane Hilary is forecast to become a major hurricane over the next few days as it rides up the Baja Mexico coast and even though it should weaken substantially as it moves north, it could become one of a handful of rare tropical storms that makes landfall in the SD/LA region on Monday.

Impacts for the Mexican coast could be substantial to catastrophic (especially Cat 3/4 high winds and mountain rains/flooding/mudslides), while impacts to SoCal and the desert SW could be moderate to substantial, especially with regard to flooding rains, but that depends on how much land interaction the storm has before reaching the US. There is high uncertainty on that, but the current NWS forecasts for rainfall in SoCal/SW-US from Hilary are substantial and would likely lead to at least some flooding (graphic below).


https://www.accuweather.com/en/hurr...rain-in-california-nevada-and-arizona/1570250

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_ep4+shtml/150247.shtml?cone#contents



 
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mdk02

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Aug 18, 2011
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Wide range on the sustained winds predicted for it's US path. Best case the reservoirs get filled. Worst case major flooding.
 
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NickRU714

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Aug 18, 2009
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Perhaps dumb question: I thought Hurricanes originated in the Atlantic and Typhoons originated in the Pacific.
 
RUforester72

RUforester72

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And if the west gets the wind without the rain, fire season gets very serious all of a sudden.
 
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RU848789

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Jul 27, 2001
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NickRU714 said:
Perhaps dumb question: I thought Hurricanes originated in the Atlantic and Typhoons originated in the Pacific.
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Not exactly. Here's the info from NOAA on nomenclature...

https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/cyclone.html

In the North Atlantic, central North Pacific, and eastern North Pacific, the term hurricane is used. The same type of disturbance in the Northwest Pacific is called a typhoon. Meanwhile, in the South Pacific and Indian Ocean, the generic term tropical cyclone is used, regardless of the strength of the wind associated with the weather system.
 
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RU848789

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No major forecast changes, although it's worth noting that Hilary is now a strong Cat 4 storm well off the coast of SW Mexico (TS force winds are still well offshore). However, the storm is still expected to weaken to a Cat 1/2 hurricane by the time it makes landfall on the Baja Peninsula early on Sunday and will weaken to a modest tropical storm (winds in the 40-50 mph range, although a bit higher in the mountains) by the time it reaches SoCal, inland of SD late Sunday night. Flooding rains (widespread 2-6" amounts) will still be the main concern for SoCal, NV, and AZ.

 
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vic_torre42

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I’m extra worried about the people in the poor communities such as Tijuana that may not have the resources to get out of the way of the storm.
 
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RU4Real

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Jul 25, 2001
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vic_torre42 said:
I’m extra worried about the people in the poor communities such as Tijuana that may not have the resources to get out of the way of the storm.
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Tijuana is one of the least "poor" communities in Mexico.

When you say "resources to get out of the way of the storm" you mean... like a roof? Pretty sure they have those.
 
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vic_torre42

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RU4Real said:
Tijuana is one of the least "poor" communities in Mexico.

When you say "resources to get out of the way of the storm" you mean... like a roof? Pretty sure they have those.
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Compared to the American cities in the path of the storm.

Take a look at the map that is a few posts up on the page. Mexico City for example is not in the storm’s path.
 
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RU4Real

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Jul 25, 2001
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vic_torre42 said:
Compared to the American cities in the path of the storm.

Take a look at the map that is a few posts up on the page. Mexico City for example is not in the storm’s path.
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Please point out where I mentioned anything about Mexico City.

I have to be honest, a lot of your posts don't really seem to track the conversation.

Regardless, this is a rain event for everything north of Ensenada.
 
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vic_torre42

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RU4Real said:
Please point out where I mentioned anything about Mexico City.

I have to be honest, a lot of your posts don't really seem to track the conversation.

Regardless, this is a rain event for everything north of Ensenada.
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I’ve noticed that you post with a negative tone in multiple threads.

A word to the wise
No one like a know it all.
 
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RU4Real

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vic_torre42 said:
I’ve noticed that you post with a negative tone in multiple threads.

A word to the wise
No one like a know it all.
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Well then it's sad for you that there are some things I know a lot about.

FWIW, I was born in Florida, have spent many years of my life in the deep south, am a licensed pilot and an avid blue water sailor. So yeah, slick... I know weather. Particularly tropical weather. I'm also a pretty decent amateur geologist, a fairly avid car guy and a hell of a cook.

Also, in case you haven't noticed, I don't really give a **** what you think, am really SUPER tired of your holier-than-thou act and have told you repeatedly to back the f*ck up.
 
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RU4Real

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In all this, let's not sleep on the Atlantic. The ITCZ is starting to heat up, a bit.
 
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brgRC90

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Apr 8, 2008
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RU4Real said:
Tijuana is one of the least "poor" communities in Mexico.

When you say "resources to get out of the way of the storm" you mean... like a roof? Pretty sure they have those.
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Tijuana is pretty poor and probably has a lot of substandard housing.
 
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Rutgers Chris

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brgRC90 said:
People are canceling things in advance for tomorrow, which is probably smart since the region is not used to storms like this. People will be forced to stay home for once on a Sunday.
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Watching the local Facebook pages is crazy. Stores are running out of water and paper towels. I should probably head down and get some milk, bread and eggs
 
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brgRC90

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Apr 8, 2008
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Rutgers Chris said:
Watching the local Facebook pages is crazy. Stores are running out of water and paper towels. I should probably head down and get some milk, bread and eggs
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I only wish I had solar panels and a back up battery but it's too expensive and wouldn't make sense financially.
 
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WhichReligionIsRight

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Oct 19, 2010
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"We call a tropical system a hurricane in the Atlantic and northeast Pacific. In the northern Indian ocean, they're called cyclones. And people living along the northwest Pacific call these storms typhoons," according to AccuWeather. Aside from where these storms take place, they all are the same weather phenomenon.
 
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