OT: My New Favorite Chart

[Jeffreauxdawg]

The Covid generation is coming. This is a chart of pregnancy test sales and it's glorious...

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[johnson86-1]

The Covid generation is coming. This is a chart of pregnancy test sales and it's glorious...

View attachment 21335

You would hope so.

It's somewhat amazing to me that one of the negative impacts when a country becomes wealthy and has it better than basically anybody else in the history of the world is that they no longer care, on average, to replace themselves.

 

[FQDawg]

You would hope so.

It's somewhat amazing to me that one of the negative impacts when a country becomes wealthy and has it better than basically anybody else in the history of the world is that they no longer care, on average, to replace themselves.

I don't see that as a negative at all. If anything, it's a positive. Non-stop growth, purely for the sake of growth, isn't always a good thing. I'd argue 330 million people is more than enough in this country and it wouldn't hurt if that number lowered over time.

 

[Smoked Toag]

Wonder if they will continue to the trend of generations just getting weirder and weirder. People just thought millenials were bad, the bunch after them were the ones fighting in the streets with purple masks on all summer last year. Just a bunch of dumbshits in general.

Last time we had a situation like this it was the baby boomers, and we all know how 17ed up they are, they created this mess.

 

[Smoked Toag]

I don't see that as a negative at all. If anything, it's a positive. Non-stop growth, purely for the sake of growth, isn't always a good thing. I'd argue 330 million people is more than enough in this country and it wouldn't hurt if that number lowered over time.

There's no question it's about to stagnate or lower, once the baby boomers die out.

 

[mstateglfr]

You would hope so.

It's somewhat amazing to me that one of the negative impacts when a country becomes wealthy and has it better than basically anybody else in the history of the world is that they no longer care, on average, to replace themselves.

In this country, immigration offsets lower birth rates. At least that is the case when compared to many other countries where birth rates are dropping.
South Korea is at like .8 kids for every woman right now and immigration to South Korea isnt offsetting that low rate. For context, the US is at 1.7 kids for every woman.


For a generation to exactly replace itself, the magic number is 2.1 kids per woman. So immigration is picking up that slack here.

 

[horshack.sixpack]

I know a guy who can fix that with a wall.***

 

[Mobile Bay]

The children now love luxury; they have bad manners, contempt for authority; they show disrespect for elders and love chatter in place of exercise. Children are now tyrants, not the servants of their households. They no longer rise when elders enter the room. They contradict their parents, chatter before company, gobble up dainties at the table, cross their legs, and tyrannize their teachers.

 

[dorndawg]

The children now love luxury; they have bad manners, contempt for authority; they show disrespect for elders and love chatter in place of exercise. Children are now tyrants, not the servants of their households. They no longer rise when elders enter the room. They contradict their parents, chatter before company, gobble up dainties at the table, cross their legs, and tyrannize their teachers.

Was thinking of this exact quote

 

[57stratdawg]

That's nice, but keep in mind COVID is on pace to take 700,000+ Americans in a 24 month span. So, we have some room to make up.

The future of the US economy appears heavily reliant on positive immigration flow in the coming decade(s). Everyone hates China, but it seems like a virtual certainty their economy passes us based on their population figures alone. It's not that hard to see a world where the Chinese economy is 2X or 3X the US'. I don't see the average American family really growing in size. We have to attract talent from outside our boarders in order to be competitive long term.

I know we have a history of innovation, but China's investments in EVs and 21st century energy are well ahead of us right now. It's going to be a difficult road if they have 5X the population and they're innovating close to our levels.

 

[Go Budaw]

Looks like all hospitals are about to be at capacity again.

 

[johnson86-1]

I don't see that as a negative at all. If anything, it's a positive. Non-stop growth, purely for the sake of growth, isn't always a good thing. I'd argue 330 million people is more than enough in this country and it wouldn't hurt if that number lowered over time.

It really will unless we have some pretty major technological breakthroughs. People are still our greatest resource. Even staying flat is a challenge because we've organized our public finances around having younger and larger populations pay for entitlements.

 

[FrontRangeDawg]

People are definitely choosing not to have children, to have children later or, not having as many children as in the past. There is a lot of research out there that is studying the cumulative effect of different environmental factors pressuring the fertility rate of not only humans, but other animals as well. Most interesting is the presence of phthalates in the general environment.

I'm not saying that I have accepted that as gospel, but the fact that there are fertility/conception studies for species other than humans is interesting.

 

[johnson86-1]

In this country, immigration offsets lower birth rates. At least that is the case when compared to many other countries where birth rates are dropping.
South Korea is at like .8 kids for every woman right now and immigration to South Korea isnt offsetting that low rate. For context, the US is at 1.7 kids for every woman.


For a generation to exactly replace itself, the magic number is 2.1 kids per woman. So immigration is picking up that slack here.

That "free" lunch is about to end also though. Or it's just going to be a game of musical chairs, with the world wide birth rate down to 2.4, there are going to be fewer and fewer countries that are above the replacement rate and able to provide immigrants.

 

[johnson86-1]

That's nice, but keep in mind COVID is on pace to take 700,000+ Americans in a 24 month span. So, we have some room to make up.

The future of the US economy appears heavily reliant on positive immigration flow in the coming decade(s). Everyone hates China, but it seems like a virtual certainty their economy passes us based on their population figures alone. It's not that hard to see a world where the Chinese economy is 2X or 3X the US'. I don't see the average American family really growing in size. We have to attract talent from outside our boarders in order to be competitive long term.

I know we have a history of innovation, but China's investments in EVs and 21st century energy are well ahead of us right now. It's going to be a difficult road if they have 5X the population and they're innovating close to our levels.

Well, China's birth rate is worse than the US's and it's less welcoming to immigrants. I think there's a real likelihood that they get old before they get rich.

 

[mstateglfr]

That "free" lunch is about to end also though. Or it's just going to be a game of musical chairs, with the world wide birth rate down to 2.4, there are going to be fewer and fewer countries that are above the replacement rate and able to provide immigrants.

True.
But then we can fall back on the reality that even though we are 17ed up, we are still more appealing than many other places in the world. People continue to come to the US at 16 to 1 ratio compared to people leaving the US. Even if that ratio falls due to fewer immigrants, its still quite a lot of people coming in.

 

[dorndawg]

Well, China's birth rate is worse than the US's and it's less welcoming to immigrants. I think there's a real likelihood that they get old before they get rich.

144	United States	1.705
145	Ireland	1.700
146	Denmark	1.700
147	Sweden	1.700
148	China	1.696

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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_sovereign_states_and_dependencies_by_total_fertility_rate

 

[thatsbaseball]

According to the CDC 79.1% of the deaths have been people over 65 so far.

 

[UpTheMiddlex3Punt]

Could it also be an increase in hospitalizations? Lots of hospitals test every single woman who comes into the hospital for any kind of treatment for pregnancy.

 

[CookieMonster.sixpack]

So gets banned for this thread? The OP or the people that brought up the virus that shall not be named?

 

[MSUDC11]

I don't see that as a negative at all. If anything, it's a positive. Non-stop growth, purely for the sake of growth, isn't always a good thing. I'd argue 330 million people is more than enough in this country and it wouldn't hurt if that number lowered over time.

Never knew that Thanos was an SPS poster.

 

[johnson86-1]

144	United States	1.705
145	Ireland	1.700
146	Denmark	1.700
147	Sweden	1.700
148	China	1.696

<tbody>
</tbody>

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_sovereign_states_and_dependencies_by_total_fertility_rate

I was looking at 2020 rates, when China had 1.3 and the US was still around 1.64.

Didn't realize how much of an outlier that was compared to recent years, so presumably that will close back up as COVID issues calm down.

 

[Jeffreauxdawg]

You watch it Cookie... I was just talking about boning to cure boredom. Don't drag me into the mud.***