OT - Question for Weather Nerds

[John Deaux VII]

Its right amazing to me how accurate the models and projections have been regarding Hurricane Helene. That thing has been right on the money as far as where people said it was going to go. The models seemed to have this tract even before there was an Invest to start watching. Has forecasting gotten that good or was there something about the circumstances that made it easy to predict?

 

[thatsbaseball]

I think on this storm it's some of both. The models all came to an agreement a little earlier than I've seen at times in the past.

 

[DAWGSANDSAINTS]

Just hope it doesn’t shift anymore westward and impact St George, Apalachicola and Cape San Blas area. Michael just devastated that area in 2018

 

[DAWGSANDSAINTS]

Why does it appear to stall out over Nashville and then move westward on Sunday?
Hopefully it doesn’t take a turn back south over East MS and W Alabama and keep going southward.

 

[IBleedMaroonDawg]

It's never an exact science with hurricanes, but the upper winds make it simpler to project a path.


By the way, some place east of Tallahassee looks like it will be where it makes landfall tonight. I have a brother-in-law in Tallahassee, and a sister-in-law in Tampa.

 

[Hugh's Burner Phone]

Why does it appear to stall out over Nashville and then move westward on Sunday?
Hopefully it doesn’t take a turn back south over East MS and W Alabama and keep going southward.

It's interacting with other storm systems causing it to do that. Tropical systems don't have a means of movement on their own like your typical storm systems that are pushed along by the jet stream. They are acted on by other storms, high pressure systems, etc and that is what steers them.

 

[DesotoCountyDawg]

Why does it appear to stall out over Nashville and then move westward on Sunday?
Hopefully it doesn’t take a turn back south over East MS and W Alabama and keep going southward.

The Fujiwhara Effect.

 

[whocanitbenow]

It's interacting with other storm systems causing it to do that. Tropical systems don't have a means of movement on their own like your typical storm systems that are pushed along by the jet stream. They are acted on by other storms, high pressure systems, etc and that is what steers them.

That's why if there's nothing to push them they just sit and spin, like Pnut

 

[Hugh's Burner Phone]

That's why if there's nothing to push them they just sit and spin, like Pnut

Good example was that one that hit Houston a few years ago. I'm drawing a blank on the name but I think they got around 35-40" of rain.

 

[Herbert Nenninger]

Good example was that one that hit Houston a few years ago. I'm drawing a blank on the name but I think they got around 35-40" of rain.

Harvey. Our son was born the day it made landfall so is easy to remember. We did not name him Harvey.