OT - Retirement discussion - what is the least amount of $$ needed to retire?

dawgstudent

Well-known member
Apr 15, 2003
38,169
14,803
113
It looks like only about 2.5% of the population have over a million in their 401k. Only 25 percent or so of those 55-64 has 250k.

The Pack has exceptional investing skills apparently!
One thing I've told new employees that come to work at my employer - for every year you get a raise - add a 1% to your 401K as a contribution. So if you get 3-5% raise and you don't need the extra $$$ - keep adding a percentage until you reach the max contribution.

That might be horrible advice but it's worked for me to build my 401K.
 
Last edited:

Bulldogbilly

Member
Mar 19, 2020
88
48
18
I have no idea how the PERS retirement works, but my wife is a school teacher and she's grandfathered in where she can retire after teaching for 25 years. This will be her 17th year teaching. Is that when the 13th check comes in to play when she decides to retire?
Thirteenth check comes in December after you have been retired the previous fiscal year. The sooner you retire after qualifying ( ex. 25 years), the longer you get to benefit from the 13th check. It continues to compound so that after several years it starts getting stupid big. Key is to get the meter running and hope for a long life.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Maroon Eagle

maroontide06

Well-known member
Dec 14, 2023
573
553
93
Thirteenth check comes in December after you have been retired the previous fiscal year. The sooner you retire after qualifying ( ex. 25 years), the longer you get to benefit from the 13th check. It continues to compound so that after several years it starts getting stupid big. Key is to get the meter running and hope for a long life.
Well that's quite interesting. Thanks for the info on that. I had no idea what it was or how it worked.
 

Maroon Eagle

Well-known member
May 24, 2006
17,414
6,940
102
Thirteenth check comes in December after you have been retired the previous fiscal year. The sooner you retire after qualifying ( ex. 25 years), the longer you get to benefit from the 13th check. It continues to compound so that after several years it starts getting stupid big. Key is to get the meter running and hope for a long life.
Compounding begins at age 55 or 60 depending on your Tier.

You can see the Table on page 63:

 

johnson86-1

Well-known member
Aug 22, 2012
13,477
3,942
113
I have no idea how the PERS retirement works, but my wife is a school teacher and she's grandfathered in where she can retire after teaching for 25 years. This will be her 17th year teaching. Is that when the 13th check comes in to play when she decides to retire?
Man, she is probably going to still have plenty of retirement years left when the **** hits the fan on PERS. I would bet on any haircut to retirees being small, but who really knows what the political calculus will be then. Not going to be a fair solution and the people that 17ed everybody will be mostly gone and would be incapable of closing the gap anyway.
 
  • Like
Reactions: dorndawg

HomeBoyDawg

Well-known member
Oct 22, 2013
1,164
965
93
I retired in 2023 and created a simple spreadsheet to model my wife's and my retirement income. Below is a simplified version based on:
  • Both retiring 1/1/2026
  • $1M 401K balance at the end of 2025 growing by 4%/year
  • Income target of $100K/year growing by 3%/year
  • I start drawing SS 1/1/2026 and wife starts 1/1/2028
I update the "EOY 401K balance" at the end of each year and reevaluate. It's not perfect but so far meets my planning needs. The scenario below depletes the 401K in 2049 which may be too soon for most...need another "Income source" or need to adjust "Annual Income Target" downward.

Just a thought that might help some folks!

2025​
2026​
2027​
2028​
2029​
2030​
Income sources:
401K
$52,000​
$55,000​
$34,090​
$37,273​
$40,551​
Wife's Social Security
$24,000​
$24,000​
$24,000​
My Social Security
$48,000​
$48,000​
$48,000​
$48,000​
$48,000​
Annual Income Target (3% inflation)
$100,000​
$103,000​
$106,090​
$109,273​
$112,551​
EOY 401K balance (4% growth)
$1,000,000​
$988,000​
$972,520​
$977,331​
$979,151​
$977,767​
 

22yardpunt

Active member
Dec 20, 2009
790
339
63
Living a normal lifestyle. House paid off, kids out of school. No huge debt.

Retirement is always “the goal” for Americans but I’ve seen plenty of folks that don’t do so well in retirement - less to do, no sense of purpose, no need for any drive or ambition. So, while I am saving for retirement I am not putting in my notice until I have something really good to do with my time that will keep me motivated and moving - I have no real interest in just putzing around for years after I stop working. Need something to get me out of bed in the morning and focused.
 
Jul 5, 2020
299
232
43
Yeah, my mom gets an RMD auto deposit that turns out to be not needed, except to pay the extra income taxes associated with it. Pain in the @$
You’d be surprised how few generations it takes to blow that kind of money.
A decent trust that spreads out distributions based on your family dynamic takes care of this problem. I have a trust that will pay out my kids a decent lump sum immediately after death and then a percentage for 10 years. My kids are also actively involved in our family estate plan so that they see it as an enterprise instead of a lottery ticket.
 
Jul 5, 2020
299
232
43
It looks like only about 2.5% of the population have over a million in their 401k. Only 25 percent or so of those 55-64 has 250k.

The Pack has exceptional investing skills apparently!
Roughly 60% of American wealth is in real estate between their primary home and investment property. According to Pew in 2021, average home equity in US is $174,000 with avg retirement account balance of $76,000. And that doesn't include the amount of investment real estate the average person has. Here's an interesting study-

 

patdog

Well-known member
May 28, 2007
52,632
19,444
113
A decent trust that spreads out distributions based on your family dynamic takes care of this problem. I have a trust that will pay out my kids a decent lump sum immediately after death and then a percentage for 10 years. My kids are also actively involved in our family estate plan so that they see it as an enterprise instead of a lottery ticket.
A trust is a good idea for a lot of people. I’ve set up a revocable trust to make my estate easier to handle & to hold a few pass through investments in. Thought about doing the timed distributions thing but figured they’re all adults now so I’m not gonna try to control them. If they blow it all on hookers & blow that’s their fault.
 
Jul 5, 2020
299
232
43
I think that the modern idea of retirement incorporates some part of the FIRE movement; most notably recognizing that lots of people want to do something meaningful (for some $), but don't want to have to go to a job because they need every $. So, part of our retirement planning is including some income for the jobs that we elect to do, whether that is in consulting, a part-time thing, etc. This would be for about 10 years from our relatively early retirement from our first jobs.
 

coach66

Active member
Mar 5, 2009
12,638
226
63
Living a normal lifestyle. House paid off, kids out of school. No huge debt.
Depends on how long you plan to live and whether you plan to leave a legacy to your kids. I’ve been retired for 5 years now and I’m doing much better financially than when I was working full time. The stock market has been phenomenal the past three years and I continue to be fairly aggressive with my investing. If you don’t have debt issues then I think you will be surprised how well you can live on 1-2 million in liquid savings especially if you are not concerned about what you pass on. Don’t get too conservative in your investing when you retire. I hope to leave a substantial legacy for my kids and so far I’m well above plan on that goal and we are thoroughly enjoying retirement.
 
Last edited:

Dawgbite

Well-known member
Nov 1, 2011
7,526
7,000
113
$1,000,000 with no debt should be pretty comfortable for most people. But you could get by just fine with a good bit less.
It’s really dependent on your age, whether or not you have healthcare insurance through a former employer, and when you plan on drawing social security. At 67 you can probably retire comfortably with $1m but at 57 and no reasonable healthcare then no $1 m isn’t enough.
 
  • Like
Reactions: patdog

Seinfeld

Well-known member
Nov 30, 2006
10,527
5,613
113
Living a normal lifestyle. House paid off, kids out of school. No huge debt.
Everything you just described is part of my plan, but I genuinely wonder how "normal" it really is. It sure seems these days like the norm is to take out a new 30 year mortgage on a house you can't really afford at age 40, get you and your wife a couple $80k vehicles to impress the neighbors, keep re-financing all those loans you took out to go to Disney 3x/yr and send little Jimmy and Susan to 18 years of private school, and then don't forget the support they'll need after college since they took out $250k in loans to go to Princeton to study theology.
 
Last edited:

hdogg

Well-known member
Nov 21, 2014
1,065
617
113
It’s really dependent on your age, whether or not you have healthcare insurance through a former employer, and when you plan on drawing social security. At 67 you can probably retire comfortably with $1m but at 57 and no reasonable healthcare then no $1 m isn’t enough.

Yeah this is what I meant to bring up earlier but got distracted. Health care for 2 will be about $2000/month conservatively.
House and car insurance about $500/month (assuming no kids car on your insurance, else add $250/kid)
If you live in central Tx and want to stay here, that's $1000/month property tax
Then add $800/month for water/electricity/services/phones/internet
So that's $3500-4500/month BEFORE EATING if you try to retire and pay for everything on your own.
And I do want to pass some onto my kids, not sure how they are gonna afford a house otherwise (but wife keeps telling me they'll be fine).

I do think $5mil is way more than enough to retire mid-50s without health care paid for, but that $2mil can sure disappear with a couple of decent vacations and the occasional new car. And $1mil is a non-starter for early retirement.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Yeti and HRMSU

johnson86-1

Well-known member
Aug 22, 2012
13,477
3,942
113
Everything you just described is part of my plan, but I genuinely wonder how "normal" it really is. It sure seems these days like the norm is to take out a new 30 year mortgage on a house you can't really afford at age 40, get you and your wife a couple $80k vehicles to impress the neighbors, keep re-financing all those loans you took out to go to Disney 3x/yr and send little Jimmy and Susan to 18 years of private school and annual Disney trips, and then don't forget the support they'll need after college since they took our $250k in loans to go to Princeton to study theology.
I know a lot of people that still work pretty hard in their 60's after making good money for a long time. I actually know very few people not hitting a milestone for a pension that retire at 62 or even 65. I'm always curious as to how much of that is just recognizing that they're not going to like retirement versus actually needing to work because they can't afford to retire. .

I feel like there are a lot of single earner families where the dad makes between $250k and $450k and they spend $300k putting three kids through private elementary and high school, and then ramp up their spending on cars, vacations, and college to whatever level ensures the dad is going to have to work until 70 to maintain their lifestyle.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Seinfeld

HRMSU

Well-known member
Apr 26, 2022
1,162
1,037
113
One thing I've told new employees that come to work at my employer - for every year you get a raise - add a 1% to your 401K as a contribution. So if you get 3-5% raise and you don't need the extra $$$ - keep adding a percentage until you reach the max contribution.

That might be horrible advice but it's worked for me to build my 401K.
I'm trying to get my kids to understand and adopt the mentality that if you can live on $1 you can live on .80 cents. You won't miss that .20 cents and if you do you are living above your means. The .20 cents on every dollar goes towards some savings/investment program.
 

dorndawg

Well-known member
Sep 10, 2012
8,142
7,754
113
Everything you just described is part of my plan, but I genuinely wonder how "normal" it really is. It sure seems these days like the norm is to take out a new 30 year mortgage on a house you can't really afford at age 40, get you and your wife a couple $80k vehicles to impress the neighbors, keep re-financing all those loans you took out to go to Disney 3x/yr and send little Jimmy and Susan to 18 years of private school and annual Disney trips, and then don't forget the support they'll need after college since they took our $250k in loans to go to Princeton to study theology.
These people are terrible at math - zero chance their kid is going to Princeton. ***
 

HRMSU

Well-known member
Apr 26, 2022
1,162
1,037
113
I think that the modern idea of retirement incorporates some part of the FIRE movement; most notably recognizing that lots of people want to do something meaningful (for some $), but don't want to have to go to a job because they need every $. So, part of our retirement planning is including some income for the jobs that we elect to do, whether that is in consulting, a part-time thing, etc. This would be for about 10 years from our relatively early retirement from our first jobs.
^ this
Trying to think of a lifestyle type business to start as an exit ramp. Let's say it's consulting then you build it around your life using your earned professional relationships, expertise, etc. Take the jobs you want to work. If it involves travel double up with a vaca at the back end or front end. Just needs to drive a little income to keep from dipping into your savings too much and would also give some purpose to your "free time."

Also, thought about some kind of relatively safe franchise model that I could eventually get the kids involved in. That could provide a lot of tax advantages.

Well intended thoughts but no action yet***
 

ckDOG

Well-known member
Dec 11, 2007
9,167
4,214
113
It looks like only about 2.5% of the population have over a million in their 401k. Only 25 percent or so of those 55-64 has 250k.

The Pack has exceptional investing skills apparently!
2.5% has to be a bad number with so many people jumping jobs. A lot of people have 2 or more accounts out there.
 

Leeshouldveflanked

Well-known member
Nov 12, 2016
12,414
6,947
113
Pers, Pensions and Social Security could all dissolve rather quickly if someone in charge decides someone else needs it more than you do.
 
  • Like
Reactions: HRMSU

ckDOG

Well-known member
Dec 11, 2007
9,167
4,214
113
I'm honestly not sure what the number is to get me to stop working but I'm happy with what we have accumulated thus far and what will be accumulated in our 60s if the assumptions pan out, God willing.

One thing I'm doing is assuming SS won't be around for me to collect and we are saving with that factored to be $0. Do I think that's going to happen? No, but it'll be a nice chunk of change I find in the cushions every month.
 

HomeBoyDawg

Well-known member
Oct 22, 2013
1,164
965
93
Retirement is always “the goal” for Americans but I’ve seen plenty of folks that don’t do so well in retirement - less to do, no sense of purpose, no need for any drive or ambition. So, while I am saving for retirement I am not putting in my notice until I have something really good to do with my time that will keep me motivated and moving - I have no real interest in just putzing around for years after I stop working. Need something to get me out of bed in the morning and focused.
Got your answer. Don't laugh. It's very social, good exercise, easy to learn, and addictive--pickleball! Spent first year of retirement looking for hunting land where I live now. Couldn't find any at a price I could afford. Someone suggested a pickleball beginner's class. Now I play pickleball 4 or 5 mornings a week and am content with a week or two of deer hunting in Mississippi and Alabama every year.

Wife just took the same beginner's class and now she's addicted, too!
 

johnson86-1

Well-known member
Aug 22, 2012
13,477
3,942
113
Pers, Pensions and Social Security could all dissolve rather quickly if someone in charge decides someone else needs it more than you do.
Private pensions are not risk free, but I think ERISA has mostly fixed companies raiding or not funding their pensions, so they are pretty safe until their is a complete breakdown in the rule of law. At least as safe as 401k's.

But things like PERs and Social Security, where a government has promised to tax people in the future to pay you benefits in the future are definitely at risk. Social security will at least be funded at something like 75%, so I would think you won't take more than a 50% or 60% cut (assuming they cut high earners to avoid cutting low earners). But PERS is more like private plans, where it's hard legally to cut payments before the money is just gone. Don't know what's going to happen when there are no assets and taxpayers are just asked to pay a bunch of retirees a **** ton of money because some irresponsible legislators in the 90's said they would.
 

ababyatemydingo

Well-known member
Nov 27, 2008
3,330
2,119
113
One thing I've told new employees that come to work at my employer - for every year you get a raise - add a 1% to your 401K as a contribution. So if you get 3-5% raise and you don't need the extra $$$ - keep adding a percentage until you reach the max contribution.

That might be horrible advice but it's worked for me to build my 401K.
$3 - $4 MM to be comfortable. That'll bring you in about $150,000 to $175,000 a year in interest. $5 - $6 MM to live nicely
 
  • Like
Reactions: HRMSU and coach66

Shmuley

Well-known member
Mar 6, 2008
23,225
8,343
113
Private pensions are not risk free, but I think ERISA has mostly fixed companies raiding or not funding their pensions, so they are pretty safe until their is a complete breakdown in the rule of law. At least as safe as 401k's.

But things like PERs and Social Security, where a government has promised to tax people in the future to pay you benefits in the future are definitely at risk. Social security will at least be funded at something like 75%, so I would think you won't take more than a 50% or 60% cut (assuming they cut high earners to avoid cutting low earners). But PERS is more like private plans, where it's hard legally to cut payments before the money is just gone. Don't know what's going to happen when there are no assets and taxpayers are just asked to pay a bunch of retirees a **** ton of money because some irresponsible legislators in the 90's said they would.
In the ‘26 session, I look for the legislature to move at least $300,000,000 of the surplus they are sitting on to PERS to shore it up near term. That will buy some more time to completely kick the can down the road.
 

Dawgbite

Well-known member
Nov 1, 2011
7,526
7,000
113
Retirement is always “the goal” for Americans but I’ve seen plenty of folks that don’t do so well in retirement - less to do, no sense of purpose, no need for any drive or ambition. So, while I am saving for retirement I am not putting in my notice until I have something really good to do with my time that will keep me motivated and moving - I have no real interest in just putzing around for years after I stop working. Need something to get me out of bed in the morning and focused.
It really just depends on the person. My wife and I were both career oriented to the point of never having children. We really established a plan in our early thirties to retire at 57. We both had full time jobs plus a side gig throughout most of that time. We both retired at 55, me first by about a year and a half. People gave me six months before I found something to do because I was always doing something. I’ve had zero regrets, I don’t get bored, and I’ve never given a second thought about finding something to do. My wife on the other had has struggled a little but she’s adjusting nicely over time. I honestly don’t know how I had time for a full time job much less a full time and a part timer.
 

Captain Ron

Member
Aug 22, 2012
630
207
43
One thing I've told new employees that come to work at my employer - for every year you get a raise - add a 1% to your 401K as a contribution. So if you get 3-5% raise and you don't need the extra $$$ - keep adding a percentage until you reach the max contribution.

That might be horrible advice but it's worked for me to build my 401K.
Oh, I get it. And for the young among us, they have a great shot to hit some high numbers and if they max the Roth, then lookout.

I have been lucky in that I have been able to hit the 415C limits in part due to the 401A option at my employer, so I am hitting my target although I didn’t contribute as much as I should have early on.

The best thing I did was hit the perpetual dividend raising stocks. (Aristocrats and Champions.) Already generating well over 6 figures and without reinvestment or contributions in 401/IRA and the dividend tends to go up 5-7% a year. Hopefully I can avoid taking any of the principal most years.
 

greenbean.sixpack

Well-known member
Oct 6, 2012
7,631
6,477
113
Everything you just described is part of my plan, but I genuinely wonder how "normal" it really is. It sure seems these days like the norm is to take out a new 30 year mortgage on a house you can't really afford at age 40, get you and your wife a couple $80k vehicles to impress the neighbors, keep re-financing all those loans you took out to go to Disney 3x/yr and send little Jimmy and Susan to 18 years of private school and annual Disney trips, and then don't forget the support they'll need after college since they took our $250k in loans to go to Princeton to study theology.
You forgot travel ball.
 

ababyatemydingo

Well-known member
Nov 27, 2008
3,330
2,119
113
In the ‘26 session, I look for the legislature to move at least $300,000,000 of the surplus they are sitting on to PERS to shore it up near term. That will buy some more time to completely kick the can down the road.
They took a net $61,000,000 a year from counties this year and sent that to PERS. They raised our State Aid by $49 MM / yr, but completely eliminated the Emergency Road and Bridge Repair (ERBR) fund, which was $110,000,000 / yr
 

greenbean.sixpack

Well-known member
Oct 6, 2012
7,631
6,477
113
One thing I've told new employees that come to work at my employer - for every year you get a raise - add a 1% to your 401K as a contribution. So if you get 3-5% raise and you don't need the extra $$$ - keep adding a percentage until you reach the max contribution.

That might be horrible advice but it's worked for me to build my 401K.
Also advise them to start a message board for self loathing fans.
 

patdog

Well-known member
May 28, 2007
52,632
19,444
113
In the ‘26 session, I look for the legislature to move at least $300,000,000 of the surplus they are sitting on to PERS to shore it up near term. That will buy some more time to completely kick the can down the road.
It would be much needed. I’ll believe it when I see it though.
 

greenbean.sixpack

Well-known member
Oct 6, 2012
7,631
6,477
113
They took a net $61,000,000 a year from counties this year and sent that to PERS. They raised our State Aid by $49 MM / yr, but completely eliminated the Emergency Road and Bridge Repair (ERBR) fund, which was $110,000,000 / yr
I'd legalize mobile sports gambling and use some of these proceeds (taxes) to shore up PERS.
 

patdog

Well-known member
May 28, 2007
52,632
19,444
113
Private pensions are not risk free, but I think ERISA has mostly fixed companies raiding or not funding their pensions, so they are pretty safe until their is a complete breakdown in the rule of law. At least as safe as 401k's.

But things like PERs and Social Security, where a government has promised to tax people in the future to pay you benefits in the future are definitely at risk. Social security will at least be funded at something like 75%, so I would think you won't take more than a 50% or 60% cut (assuming they cut high earners to avoid cutting low earners). But PERS is more like private plans, where it's hard legally to cut payments before the money is just gone. Don't know what's going to happen when there are no assets and taxpayers are just asked to pay a bunch of retirees a **** ton of money because some irresponsible legislators in the 90's said they would.
I don’t know that cutting social security will ever be politically possible. There’s a lot of old voters & even more coming. PERS benefits can’t be cut retroactively. They can, and should, change the benefit formula going forward. Full retirement after 25 years is insane.
 

turkish

Active member
Aug 22, 2012
936
294
63
Living a normal lifestyle. House paid off, kids out of school. No huge debt.
What are the expenses for someone with a normal lifestyle, house paid off, kids out of no huge debt? If you know that, you can get to your answer. But most folks don’t really track their spending, for some reason. And I have no clue what a “normal lifestyle” is anymore. Are they giving a large % to their church, for example?

I think the absolute best basis is the SWR correlations out there. History seems to show that a 4% drawdown of savings per year gives you a great chance of making it. Moreover, recently that number has even been shifted up to 4.7%. So if your expenses are $100k per year, you need a nest egg of $2.1M, assuming you have no other income, following the 4.7% safe withdrawal rate go-by. That’s also assuming you’re invested (conservatively) and have a 30-yr retirement. Of course, that’s based on history and past performance is not always an indicator of future performance. But if you’re picking a basis to use, what else do you choose?

summary: it’s all about expenses and lifestyle creep is a killa!
 
Last edited:

patdog

Well-known member
May 28, 2007
52,632
19,444
113
It’s really dependent on your age, whether or not you have healthcare insurance through a former employer, and when you plan on drawing social security. At 67 you can probably retire comfortably with $1m but at 57 and no reasonable healthcare then no $1 m isn’t enough.
Completely agree. Healthcare is the big variable. If you want to retire early, you better have a plan for those costs. One thing you can do is live off of personal savings & Roth money & get the Obamacare credits for as long as you can. Of course you lose the tax free future Roth earnings if you go that route.