OT: S&P 493 graph
- Thread starter horshack.sixpack
- Start date
Allowing businesses to become overwhelmingly large will work out this time.
I didn't study it, but let me guess -- something something Trump?**
Fortunately economists don't prioritize stock index performances as an indicator of the health of an economy. For a more fundamental and encompassing view, the following metrics make a dash board with 5 main gauges to assess the scope and performance in terms of economic health.
1. Real GDP Growth
2. Unemployment Rate + JOLTS metrics (lagging indicator)
3. CPI and Core PCE (Inflation)
4. PMI (leading indicator)
5. Yield Curve (recession signal)
As a 6th important signal my vote would go to median net worth per adult. Median net worth per adult in the US is good for 15th place globally.
1. Real GDP Growth
2. Unemployment Rate + JOLTS metrics (lagging indicator)
3. CPI and Core PCE (Inflation)
4. PMI (leading indicator)
5. Yield Curve (recession signal)
As a 6th important signal my vote would go to median net worth per adult. Median net worth per adult in the US is good for 15th place globally.
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Wow. I learned something today. That last sentence is an absolute embarrassment.
See, it was interesting to me because I didn’t realize how much performance was driven by just 7 of the 500. Perhaps it was common knowledge to everyone else, most likely, to your point, not Trump because he is as dumb as a box of rocks?
Good lord how do people enjoy anything in a life that is wrapped around politics? I literally never once thought a thing about Trump when looking a the graph or posting the graph. Honestly him, nor any politician occupies much of my day to day mental bandwidth…
Up 132% over five years is still pretty good.
Its actually closer to 7 years. Starts in January 2019.
Works out to about 7.42% CAGR when adjusted for average annual inflation over that time. That’s pretty middling return for the S&P. Could be worse, but could also be way better.
Since January 2019:
GOOG is up 504%
AMZN is up 192%
META is up 332%
AAPL is up 647%
MSFT is up 368%
TSLA is up 1,880%
NVDA is up 5,224%
So it’s really the S&P 493, then 5 that are really doing well, then the Magnificent 2.
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Did you use this data?- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_wealth_per_adult
If so, that is 2022 and 2023 data. So the economy was healthy a few years ago, per your 6th important signal.
Cool and all, but it seems like that is a pretty significant lag between data and current situation.
Maybe more updated info shows the same thing though.
Its almost 7 years. Like 6.75 years.
32% over 6.75 years is not good.
Isnt that like 4.5% growth YOY?
Dump the freeloaders and ALL US citizens would be much better off.
No, I used the 16th edition of the UBS Global Wealth Report which was released in 2025 for the 2024 data set.
Oh, yeah that is a really good editon.
Interesting that the US state 15th.
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tbay coming in hot with another Twitter post. Will this one be real, or will it be yet another time where he posts lies, misrepresentations, or half truths?
No idea if the charts claims are accurate or not.
I don't support people coming to the US illegally.
With that said, I am continually perplexed as to how the number of people who came here illegally is known.
They weren't counted when they arrived, so how does anyone know?
I can't figure out if estimates are low or high...because I cant figure out how the the numbers are reliably calculated.
It seems like people take an estimate, and that estimate varies, then they subtract out groups, and some of those groups are also estimated.
And then small sample sizes are projected out exponentially, which seems obviously questionable.
But boy there sure are people who confidently claim they know the real number!
What does this have to do with the rate of return for a fund over 7 years?
stfu. you are wrapped around polictics just as much as you accuse others they are.
While we're on the topic, for those concerned about the country's economic future, as well as AI encroachment in the job market, keep in mind this forecast:
''Cerulli projects that wealth transferred through 2048 will total $124 trillion—$105 trillion is expected to flow to heirs, while $18 trillion will go to charity. Nearly $100 trillion will be transferred from Baby Boomers and older generations, representing 81% of all transfers. More than 50% of the overall total volume of transfers ($62 trillion) is expected to come from those who are currently high-net-worth and ultra-high-net-worth (HNW/UHNW), which together make up only 2% of all households.
Projections of horizontal, or intra-generational, transfers show that $54 trillion will be passed on to spouses before eventually transferring intergenerationally to heirs and to charities. Nearly $40 trillion of these spousal transfers will be going to widowed women in the Baby Boomer and older generations, creating a massive need, and opportunity, for providers across the wealth and asset management spaces.
Millennials will be inheriting the most of any generation over the course of the next 25 years ($46 trillion). However, Gen X stands to inherit the greatest portion of assets in the next 10 years, totaling $14 trillion to Millennials’ $8 trillion.''
This will be a boon to economy and will undoubtedly help cushion the blow for many Americans if recessions occur in this time period.
As far as technology trends and job displacement, the World Economics Forum estimates there will be a net job creation of +78 million globally in the next decade, with farm workers topping the list, but also significant gains in environmental engineering, retail sales, food processing, nursing, counseling, social workers, construction, software developing and delivery drivers.
While AI will certainly impact some professions there should still be plenty of demand for skilled workers in various fields. AI is not expected to make a sustained, significant increase in the unemployment rate in the near future.
''Cerulli projects that wealth transferred through 2048 will total $124 trillion—$105 trillion is expected to flow to heirs, while $18 trillion will go to charity. Nearly $100 trillion will be transferred from Baby Boomers and older generations, representing 81% of all transfers. More than 50% of the overall total volume of transfers ($62 trillion) is expected to come from those who are currently high-net-worth and ultra-high-net-worth (HNW/UHNW), which together make up only 2% of all households.
Projections of horizontal, or intra-generational, transfers show that $54 trillion will be passed on to spouses before eventually transferring intergenerationally to heirs and to charities. Nearly $40 trillion of these spousal transfers will be going to widowed women in the Baby Boomer and older generations, creating a massive need, and opportunity, for providers across the wealth and asset management spaces.
Millennials will be inheriting the most of any generation over the course of the next 25 years ($46 trillion). However, Gen X stands to inherit the greatest portion of assets in the next 10 years, totaling $14 trillion to Millennials’ $8 trillion.''
This will be a boon to economy and will undoubtedly help cushion the blow for many Americans if recessions occur in this time period.
As far as technology trends and job displacement, the World Economics Forum estimates there will be a net job creation of +78 million globally in the next decade, with farm workers topping the list, but also significant gains in environmental engineering, retail sales, food processing, nursing, counseling, social workers, construction, software developing and delivery drivers.
While AI will certainly impact some professions there should still be plenty of demand for skilled workers in various fields. AI is not expected to make a sustained, significant increase in the unemployment rate in the near future.
I'd like to see this done with the top 7 companies each year and what their performance was for the five years before and five years after. I imagine there's a historical survivors bias here. We can probably do this in 2030 when it's a slightly different bag of stock (I think AVGO will be on this list) and you'll see the same thing.
That would be interesting to see - Microsoft passed IBM in the mid 90s, and by the end of the decade had I think 3 times the valuation. Probably the banks/finance in the 80s when Reagan deregulated that industry - same as it ever was is probably correct, although I think the # of public companies has been shrinking in the last decade as more and more stay private/venture cap owned.
We’re # 15! Yes! USA! USA! USA! Clearly the best country!!
Now do military and military bases in other countries. And then rank the countries in order of desire to immigrate to. That's a list of 1.
Well, if I had known we had the most occupi….errr… military bases in other countries, I would have had much less of a problem paying $14 for 2 pounds of ground chuck! I mean why would I need meat when I could help fund a base in Diego Garcia?
Sad that Britain isn't around anymore. First world countries and all.
I’m pretty skeptical of that ranking. Not surprised at all by some of the smaller countries ahead of us. But some of the others I have been to and they don’t seem well off.
of course maybe that’s why their median net worth is higher; we make more but we spend it keeping up with consumption.
Alternatively a good chunk of that could be that the US has had much higher fertility until recently plus higher rates of immigration. Splitting a family house between almost two siblings on average compared to 1.5 probably makes a big difference. And then you move the median down by adding a lot of poor illegal immigrants (which also significantly depresses growth in median income, if also making cost of living lower).
I liked your idea, and decided to do it for the 7 years prior to the chart (2012-2018). 5 of the 7 largest companies were the same. Tesla and Nvidia were swapped with Berkshire and Johnson and Johnson. Here are 2012-2018 results, with 2019-2025 in parenthesis:
GOOG - 232% growth (504%)
AMZN - 848% growth (192%)
META - 261% growth (332%)
AAPL - 158% growth (647%)
MSFT - 286% growth (368%)
BERK.B - 164% growth (161%)
JNJ - 96% growth (62%)
So, GOOG and AAPL accelerated their growth. META, MSFT, and BERK more or less had stable growth. AMZN slowed down substantially. But the biggest thing that hits you is that there is no Tesla or NVIDIA with astronomical market cap. It definitely seems that the largest 7 companies have much more impact now than they did then.