OT: Stock and Investment Thread
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Disney going all in with streaming and DTC.
FYI - Market check in. Tracking since late August:
VONE (Russell 1000 index) = +4.45%
VONG (Russell 1000 growth) = +4.89%
VONV (Russell 1000 value) = +3.80%
VTWO (Russell 2000 index) = +4.92%
VTWG (Russell 2000 growth) = +6.78%
VTWV (Russell 2000 value) = +3.39%
VEA (Vanguard Developed Markets) = +2.54%
VWIGX (Vanguard International Growth Fund) = about +7% (awaiting today's final price)
So, mid and small caps seem to have caught up with larger caps. Also, growth is still king, especially on the international side.
VONE (Russell 1000 index) = +4.45%
VONG (Russell 1000 growth) = +4.89%
VONV (Russell 1000 value) = +3.80%
VTWO (Russell 2000 index) = +4.92%
VTWG (Russell 2000 growth) = +6.78%
VTWV (Russell 2000 value) = +3.39%
VEA (Vanguard Developed Markets) = +2.54%
VWIGX (Vanguard International Growth Fund) = about +7% (awaiting today's final price)
So, mid and small caps seem to have caught up with larger caps. Also, growth is still king, especially on the international side.
Looking ahead Disney has both the recovery stock and the tech stock stories going for it. Jumped 5% on the streaming news but still below precovid highs, I feel once we get post covid this will go on a big run.
Disney content is unmatched and with its streaming service, it can control its distribution. Pretty good combo!
2019 "parks experiences and products" was around 40%. That does include products which may or may not be sold in the parks so a little muddy there, but it's a huge # nonetheless.
And they are getting hurt by the inability to put movies into theaters. They went direct to Disney+ with Mulan and didn't do so hot with that. Now maybe that changes in time, and 5 years from now movies will do better going direct to Disney+ but right now the lack of theaters is restricting revenues.
Do note that the mix was a bit different in 2016, but I think that speaks to the slow demise of cable TV and again points to the need to go direct to consumer digitally.
Mulan is a niche movie and wasn't going to do too well in US theaters anyway (essentially made for the Chinese audience). Put the next Avengers or SW movie on Disney+ and then we will see how successful the platform is.
Bought some USCR, makers of Quikrete brand concrete products.
Ups 2x from it's lows, but still below precovid levels. From where I'm sitting it appears sales have been brisk. Though maybe building in general is getting choked by high material prices? Lumber for instance. Earnings on 10/29.
Ups 2x from it's lows, but still below precovid levels. From where I'm sitting it appears sales have been brisk. Though maybe building in general is getting choked by high material prices? Lumber for instance. Earnings on 10/29.
Hearing positive sentiment on buying Gilead as a trade vehicle as it currently sits near a support level that dates back a few years. Don't know about it as a long term investment, but from my superficial view point, looking at rev's over the past 5 years I'm not seeing it.
What's the driver on your bullish take on Blackberry? What sparks the turnaround?
I dunno, I felt the hype was pretty big. Granted I've always loved Kung Fu flicks so maybe my glasses were colored.
I think they would also do better to get more people on the platform before releasing the blockbusters. Chicken or egg though maybe.
Gilead has a $10B COVID product, and heaps of immunology and oncology products in the pipeline.
On BB, I see environmental factors increasing demand substantially:
CYLANCE: disbursed workforces are the new norm, expedited by COVID. Security is critical. There are alot of players here, but all ships will rise.
QNX: standard platform for autonomous vehicles. This is the future; but soon enough is the present.
I wonder about Gild's remdesivir. Still did not show up in revenue's as of the last quarter, and with the concern with many Covid drugs(not sure about Gild's) is that it might be a rev driver but not an earnings driver.
But by most accounts it's a safe level to buy.
Fair question. Hopefully we'll get a sense of the earnings potential next week with Q3 earnings out.
FSLY had crossed over $130 just yesterday but tanks 30% in after hours today on news it is not used as much as expected by Tik Tok.
I'd usually look at that as a prime buying op, but being as it was up 500% ytd prior to the news, I'm not sure this is the spot to get back in. It might be though.
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Let's say it gets back into the $70's as Cramer thinks it might, would you get back in?
for a buy and hold guy, you sure spend a lot time tracking the market.
Need to track to see what is best to buy and hold.
Got out of international 4-5 years ago, great decision! Finally started back up this summer with VWIGX. Also stopped adding to our small and mid caps 2-3 years ago, so tracking that as well.
To that point Russel 2k was up 1% today.Need to track to see what is best to buy and hold.
Got out of international 4-5 years ago, great decision! Finally started back up this summer with VWIGX. Also stopped adding to our small and mid caps 2-3 years ago, so tracking that as well.
Nasdaq down .47%. S&P down .15%. DJI down just .06%
I personally was in the green, up .04%. Love beating the majors.
You can see from my data above, R1K and R2K have the same return since end of August. R2K Growth is starting to pop, so I will keep an eye on that.
yes, I get the rebalancing but it's still not everyday. I ran my Q3 numbers and I'm up 5.5% YTD now.Need to track to see what is best to buy and hold.
Got out of international 4-5 years ago, great decision! Finally started back up this summer with VWIGX. Also stopped adding to our small and mid caps 2-3 years ago, so tracking that as well.
I preface this still saying GE is likely to be a slog but some positive news in the last couple weeks for GE. GS came out with an upgrade a little while back saying it thinks the worst is behind it and 50% upside is possible. Like I said above high single digits/low double digits is quite realistic if cash flow picture improves with time. Also saw this morning Boeing 737 Max is getting clearance by European regulators for safe travel so a positive sign for GE Aviation segment. So air travel still has a ways to pick up even though it's improving and cash flow needs to get better but some positive signs.
Not particularly good news for GILD and remdemsivir.
It's a "fake study". Not a legit double blinded well controlled FDA approved study.
I wouldn't call it a "fake study" but it's not the end of story either. On balance I still think the news on remdemsivir is positive but I wouldn't throw out something like this as well. I don't follow GILD closely but actually it doesn't even sound like this WHO study contradicts GILD's own study. The results sound kind of similar to me. GILD's own study says it's effective at certain earlier stages in the disease progression but saw nothing significant when you take mortality across a range of patients from all stages of disease progression. That to me sounds exactly like the results of the WHO study. So actually doesn't sound like they're in conflict with each other really because the WHO study is taking a randomized group from all stages of disease progression.
It's not even affecting the stock that much probably because really the results sound the same. If this was something really negative you'd see at least a mid single digit percentage move down on GILD but at the open not much movement IMO only like .5% or so down which isn't much to me.
This is from a CNBC article on GILD's study.
The study, published in the New England Journal of Medicine, also found that remdesivir contributed to significant reduction in death rates for patients who were in the early stages of receiving oxygen support. The study did not find, however, a statistically significant mortality reduction across the 1,060 patients in the trial.
“The earlier you treat, the better in the hospital and you can prevent people from ever even going onto those stages of the disease where the risk of dying is very high,” O’Day said. “This is a medicine that works by reducing the viral replication in the body, which is important earlier in the disease and earlier in your hospital stay, which is why it has its greatest effect there.”
Sorry, the WTO study is garbage compared to the real FDA study. Stick with those results and don't get confused. Smart investors know this, which is why the stock is essentially unchanged. However, the general public is less smart.
Just how much are sales of remdesivir going to be and will it meet expectations.
Looking at a chart it does seem like it has some support in the low 60s area but it also just got rejected by the 50DMA around 65. If it doesn't report strong sales of the drug not sure if it will have much momentum to break through that.
Side note on GE....looks like it's having a good day up 6.5%...I'm guessing on the positive 737 Max news I posted about earlier.
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They make engines for both Boeing and Airbus but Boeing is a bigger customer I believe.
Tough to track for me (due to numerous accounts). Looks like we are up 9-10% YTD. Much is this return is due to our focusing more on growth ETFs/funds. This is just our investments. If you look at all liquid assets and our cash, this # goes down a bit.
Crazy year, but very good year so far!
Here's an article talking about the study, and it sides with T2K. Even suggesting something else, perhaps relating to earnings later this month, was the cause for the drop.
The latter sounds unlikely imo, would be way too much of a coincidence, but if this guy is to be believed the who study was both sketchy and misleading in it's conclusion.
This might be one of T2K's good buying oppurtunities. Especially since it was already in a good buying zone.
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I think I posted this some pages back, but given a choice between a peer reviewed source and a non-peer reviewed source I tend to go with the peer reviews.
I didn’t see the article to which you referred. Not sure if you didn’t link it.
Nonetheless as I said in a succeeding post I don’t think the two studies actually conflict with each other. Gilead’s own study says the effect was on early stage progression but no effect across all the patients in the study. That basically sounds like the results of the WHO study which is across all cross sections and not focused on any one stage of the disease.
This low 60s area does have some support so that’s good but on the upside the 50DMA is in the mid 60s and to have any momentum to breakout above that remdemsivir is going to have some good sales and projections imo.