OT: Tracking Winter Storm FISH 1/31-2/1
- Thread starter bac2therac
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The National Weather Service local forecast for my zip code gives a 30% chance of snow next Saturday night and Sunday. So apparently there's some foundation for the hype.
My stand alone thread polled bigly
Hopefully it sputters into nothing.
But if it materializes, this will be the place it’s tracked, followed and talked about.
But if it materializes, this will be the place it’s tracked, followed and talked about.
Good news at this moment is that the storm is tracking southeast of us - meaning we miss storm or get a swiping glance!
Key is “ as of this moment”.
Key is “ as of this moment”.
That was the OFFICIAL winter storm Fern thread. Thanks for the new one!
Both Lonnie Quinn and Lee Goldberg showed current model of this storm and it’s hugging the NJ Coast.
Both advised that we ll have a much better gage on the storm on Wed when the storm in the Pacific approaches the west coast.
Both advised that we ll have a much better gage on the storm on Wed when the storm in the Pacific approaches the west coast.
Let me transfer to here my post on the other thread.
The forecast for my Cherry Hill zip code is a 30% chance of snow Saturday and has been upped to a 40% chance Saturday night and Sunday:
This is the latest from the National Weather Service (Mount Holly)'s forecast discussion:
"We are monitoring the potential for a coastal storm
next weekend. While forecast confidence regarding specific
impacts remains low, there are concerns the storm may track
close enough to the region to bring at least some impacts to
portions of our forecast area.
"Deterministic and ensemble guidance continue to show the
potential of some sort of system developing off the Mid-Atlantic
coast next weekend. The latest 12z forecast guidance is still is all
over the place but there is fair agreement in some sort of
storm developing. The 0z ECMWF had been very bullish with this
storm giving the area a direct hit but the latest run has backed
off. In fact latest EC is pretty similar to GFS while 12z GEM
is very bullish. It should be noted there`s also alot of spread
in the GFS ensemble members (GEFS).
"In terms of probabilities and potential impacts....the latest NBM
has 24 hour probabilities of snowfall > 4 inches around 20 to
25 percent across most of the area. In terms of timing, if this
storm affects us it could arrive as early as late day Saturday
and then last through Sunday. It should also be noted that this
storm may have significant winds with it such that even if the
center of the storm tracks well offshore, coastal areas could
still have strong winds.
"Overall, it bears watching to see how things shake out over the
next few days and how guidance handles the features in the wake
of yesterday`s storm. What there is high confidence in is that
there will be a cold airmass in place, sufficient for snow at least
at the storm`s onset if we get it. It will generally stay very
cold through next weekend into at least the beginning of next
week."https://forecast.weather.gov/produc...&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off
The forecast for my Cherry Hill zip code is a 30% chance of snow Saturday and has been upped to a 40% chance Saturday night and Sunday:
This is the latest from the National Weather Service (Mount Holly)'s forecast discussion:
"We are monitoring the potential for a coastal storm
next weekend. While forecast confidence regarding specific
impacts remains low, there are concerns the storm may track
close enough to the region to bring at least some impacts to
portions of our forecast area.
"Deterministic and ensemble guidance continue to show the
potential of some sort of system developing off the Mid-Atlantic
coast next weekend. The latest 12z forecast guidance is still is all
over the place but there is fair agreement in some sort of
storm developing. The 0z ECMWF had been very bullish with this
storm giving the area a direct hit but the latest run has backed
off. In fact latest EC is pretty similar to GFS while 12z GEM
is very bullish. It should be noted there`s also alot of spread
in the GFS ensemble members (GEFS).
"In terms of probabilities and potential impacts....the latest NBM
has 24 hour probabilities of snowfall > 4 inches around 20 to
25 percent across most of the area. In terms of timing, if this
storm affects us it could arrive as early as late day Saturday
and then last through Sunday. It should also be noted that this
storm may have significant winds with it such that even if the
center of the storm tracks well offshore, coastal areas could
still have strong winds.
"Overall, it bears watching to see how things shake out over the
next few days and how guidance handles the features in the wake
of yesterday`s storm. What there is high confidence in is that
there will be a cold airmass in place, sufficient for snow at least
at the storm`s onset if we get it. It will generally stay very
cold through next weekend into at least the beginning of next
week."https://forecast.weather.gov/produc...&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off
Shortly before 3 a.m., the NWS revised the "in terms of" paragraph to increase the probability of snow for most of the area:
"In terms of probabilities and potential impacts....the latest NBM has 24 hour probabilities of snowfall > 4 inches around 20 to 25 percent north and western zones, around 40 percent I-95 corridor, near 50 percent immediate coast."
Weather app went for 15 to 3 to 6 over the last 24 hours
at least a few stations mentioned the possibility of a compete miss but 40-60 mile difference in track could lead to a decent storm along the coast
at least a few stations mentioned the possibility of a compete miss but 40-60 mile difference in track could lead to a decent storm along the coast
Most models continue to be out to sea while a couple models would bring some snow to coast and very light snows elsewhere
Beyond that really doesnt need more analysis so far out. It will take another 48 hours of model runs to get a real feel but even then a storm off the coach will have to be watched for any shifts 72 hours out
Beyond that really doesnt need more analysis so far out. It will take another 48 hours of model runs to get a real feel but even then a storm off the coach will have to be watched for any shifts 72 hours out
BAC, thank you for doing your own thread. You give it straight with no hype and no wishcasting. And you are almost as accurate as you are with your bracketology. I swear the meteorologists on the web and on tv are paid to hype up every storm and scare people to keep tuning in. This thread (and your other threads) are where I come to find out what's going on
Big Weather is all about hype and clickbait! They make money on your fear.
Yep..but some are rooting for 1-2 feet and that makes them sad people
Weather reporting is just another form of the media business. It’s like WFAN and sports talk, just weather. Advertising rates increase, and people get more followers and subscribers when they put out sensational content.
Here is the 2:51 p.m. forecast discussion from NWS Mount Holly:
.A rapidly deepening storm will develop off the
east coast this weekend. While confidence in specific forecast
details remains low, the storm could bring at least portions of
the area moderate to significant impacts from snow, strong
winds, and coastal flooding.
Forecast models continue to forecast cyclogensis occurring
beginning Saturday off the southeast coast with rapidly
deepening low pressure depicted to then move north and east
Saturday night through Sunday. This will occur due to a potent
upper level disturbance pivoting around the base of the long
wave trough over the east interacting with the strong baroclinic
zone along the coast.
In terms of impacts to our forecast area, this still hinges on the
exact track the storm takes which remains uncertain at this time.
The latest GFS trended west some and is overall not too
different than the GEM. The latest EC is still farther east than
these models. It is also worth noting that there continues to
be spread in the GFS ensemble members (the GEFS) with the
ensemble mean a bit farther east than the deterministic . So
this all said, it boils down to whether the storm tracks farther
northward along the coast before turning east (bringing the
area greater impacts) vs. being quicker to turn east meaning the
track would stay farther away bringing more limited impacts.
Potential impacts include not just heavy precipitation but also
strong winds and coastal flooding as the storm will have a tight
pressure gradient with a very strong wind field. Timing wise,
the earliest this would arrive is late day Saturday with the
brunt of the storm occuring Saturday night into Sunday if we get
it. Given the very cold temperatures in place both at the
surface and aloft, all snow is strongly favored in terms of
precip type. The latest NBM probabilistic data for snow amounts
greater than 2 inches (plowable) ranges from around 60 percent
near the coast to 50 percent near the I-95 corridor with lower
probabilities N/W of the urban corridor. For 6+ inches, these
probs are around 40 percent near I-95 up to 50 percent near the
coast. These probabilities seem reasonable at this point.
Regardless of snow amounts, the storm will likely track close
enough to bring the area increasing winds Saturday night into
Sunday morning. Our current forecast has N/NE winds forecast to
be 15 to 25 gusting 25 to 35 mph inland Sunday with winds 25 to
35 gusting up to 50 mph along the coast. Winds could even end up
a bit stronger than this if a more N/W track with the storm
occurs. This could lead to some damage and power outages and
will also help cause water to pile up along the coast.
By Sunday evening, the storm should be rapidly pulling away to the
northeast with generally tranquil but cold weather for early next
week.
Overall, it will continue to bear watching to see how things shake
out over the next couple days and how guidance handles the features
in the wake of our recent storm. Forecast details should come into
clearer focus as we go through the week.
.A rapidly deepening storm will develop off the
east coast this weekend. While confidence in specific forecast
details remains low, the storm could bring at least portions of
the area moderate to significant impacts from snow, strong
winds, and coastal flooding.
Forecast models continue to forecast cyclogensis occurring
beginning Saturday off the southeast coast with rapidly
deepening low pressure depicted to then move north and east
Saturday night through Sunday. This will occur due to a potent
upper level disturbance pivoting around the base of the long
wave trough over the east interacting with the strong baroclinic
zone along the coast.
In terms of impacts to our forecast area, this still hinges on the
exact track the storm takes which remains uncertain at this time.
The latest GFS trended west some and is overall not too
different than the GEM. The latest EC is still farther east than
these models. It is also worth noting that there continues to
be spread in the GFS ensemble members (the GEFS) with the
ensemble mean a bit farther east than the deterministic . So
this all said, it boils down to whether the storm tracks farther
northward along the coast before turning east (bringing the
area greater impacts) vs. being quicker to turn east meaning the
track would stay farther away bringing more limited impacts.
Potential impacts include not just heavy precipitation but also
strong winds and coastal flooding as the storm will have a tight
pressure gradient with a very strong wind field. Timing wise,
the earliest this would arrive is late day Saturday with the
brunt of the storm occuring Saturday night into Sunday if we get
it. Given the very cold temperatures in place both at the
surface and aloft, all snow is strongly favored in terms of
precip type. The latest NBM probabilistic data for snow amounts
greater than 2 inches (plowable) ranges from around 60 percent
near the coast to 50 percent near the I-95 corridor with lower
probabilities N/W of the urban corridor. For 6+ inches, these
probs are around 40 percent near I-95 up to 50 percent near the
coast. These probabilities seem reasonable at this point.
Regardless of snow amounts, the storm will likely track close
enough to bring the area increasing winds Saturday night into
Sunday morning. Our current forecast has N/NE winds forecast to
be 15 to 25 gusting 25 to 35 mph inland Sunday with winds 25 to
35 gusting up to 50 mph along the coast. Winds could even end up
a bit stronger than this if a more N/W track with the storm
occurs. This could lead to some damage and power outages and
will also help cause water to pile up along the coast.
By Sunday evening, the storm should be rapidly pulling away to the
northeast with generally tranquil but cold weather for early next
week.
Overall, it will continue to bear watching to see how things shake
out over the next couple days and how guidance handles the features
in the wake of our recent storm. Forecast details should come into
clearer focus as we go through the week.
Last Euro run had it going further out to sea. Lots of disappointment on AmrericanWx thread about the storm. There are some desperate posters on there.
All the esembles have it out to sea
Until models start moving it closer then there is nothing to talk about
There is still a shot at a coastal only event or possibly minor light snows here but 5 days out is too far away to track intentlt
Until models start moving it closer then there is nothing to talk about
There is still a shot at a coastal only event or possibly minor light snows here but 5 days out is too far away to track intentlt
did you say models?
Maybe. Maybe not.
But I bet the guy running that other thread sure knows.
NWS Mount Holly updated its forecast at 6:24 p.m. but only changed the aviation forecast. We'll see if they continue to believe there's a significant chance of snow this weekend.
The National Weather Service has backed off a bit as of 5 a.m., as you can see from the fourth paragraph:
A rapidly deepening storm will develop off the
east coast this weekend. While confidence in specific forecast
details remains low, the storm could bring at least portions of
the area moderate to significant impacts from snow, strong
winds, and coastal flooding.
Forecast models continue to forecast cyclogensis occurring
beginning Saturday off the southeast coast with rapidly
deepening low pressure depicted to then move north and east
Saturday night through Sunday. This will occur due to a potent
upper level disturbance pivoting around the base of the long
wave trough over the east interacting with the strong baroclinic
zone along the coast.
In terms of impacts to our forecast area, this still hinges on
the exact track the storm takes which remains uncertain at this
time. The latest GFS trended west a little. However, the latest
GEM trended east, like the latest EC. It is worth noting that
there continues to be spread in the GFS ensemble members (the
GEFS) with the ensemble mean a bit farther east than the
deterministic . So this all said, it boils down to whether the
storm tracks farther northward along the coast before turning
east (bringing the area greater impacts) vs. being quicker to
turn east meaning the track would stay farther away bringing
more limited impacts. Potential impacts include not just heavy
precipitation but also strong winds and coastal flooding as the
storm will have a tight pressure gradient with a very strong
wind field. Timing wise, the earliest this would arrive is late
day Saturday with the brunt of the storm occuring Saturday night
into Sunday if we get it. Given the very cold temperatures in
place both at the surface and aloft, all snow is strongly
favored in terms of precip type.
The latest NBM probabilistic data has trended downward a bit.
For snow amounts greater than 2 inches (plowable), the range is
from around 50 percent near the coast to 40 percent near the
I-95 corridor with lower probabilities N/W of the urban
corridor. For 6+ inches, these probs are around 30 percent near
I-95 up to 40 percent near the coast. These probabilities seem
reasonable at this point. Regardless of snow amounts, the storm
will likely track close enough to bring the area increasing
winds Saturday night into Sunday morning. Our current forecast
has N/NE winds forecast to be 15 to 25 gusting 25 to 35 mph
inland Sunday with winds 25 to 35 gusting up to 50 mph along the
coast. Winds could even end up a bit stronger than this if a
more N/W track with the storm occurs. This could lead to some
damage and power outages and will also help cause water to pile
up along the coast.
By Sunday evening, the storm should be rapidly pulling away to
the northeast with generally tranquil but cold weather for early
next week.
Overall, it will continue to bear watching to see how things
shake out over the next couple days and how guidance handles the
features in the wake of our recent storm. Forecast details
should come into clearer focus as we go through the week.
A rapidly deepening storm will develop off the
east coast this weekend. While confidence in specific forecast
details remains low, the storm could bring at least portions of
the area moderate to significant impacts from snow, strong
winds, and coastal flooding.
Forecast models continue to forecast cyclogensis occurring
beginning Saturday off the southeast coast with rapidly
deepening low pressure depicted to then move north and east
Saturday night through Sunday. This will occur due to a potent
upper level disturbance pivoting around the base of the long
wave trough over the east interacting with the strong baroclinic
zone along the coast.
In terms of impacts to our forecast area, this still hinges on
the exact track the storm takes which remains uncertain at this
time. The latest GFS trended west a little. However, the latest
GEM trended east, like the latest EC. It is worth noting that
there continues to be spread in the GFS ensemble members (the
GEFS) with the ensemble mean a bit farther east than the
deterministic . So this all said, it boils down to whether the
storm tracks farther northward along the coast before turning
east (bringing the area greater impacts) vs. being quicker to
turn east meaning the track would stay farther away bringing
more limited impacts. Potential impacts include not just heavy
precipitation but also strong winds and coastal flooding as the
storm will have a tight pressure gradient with a very strong
wind field. Timing wise, the earliest this would arrive is late
day Saturday with the brunt of the storm occuring Saturday night
into Sunday if we get it. Given the very cold temperatures in
place both at the surface and aloft, all snow is strongly
favored in terms of precip type.
The latest NBM probabilistic data has trended downward a bit.
For snow amounts greater than 2 inches (plowable), the range is
from around 50 percent near the coast to 40 percent near the
I-95 corridor with lower probabilities N/W of the urban
corridor. For 6+ inches, these probs are around 30 percent near
I-95 up to 40 percent near the coast. These probabilities seem
reasonable at this point. Regardless of snow amounts, the storm
will likely track close enough to bring the area increasing
winds Saturday night into Sunday morning. Our current forecast
has N/NE winds forecast to be 15 to 25 gusting 25 to 35 mph
inland Sunday with winds 25 to 35 gusting up to 50 mph along the
coast. Winds could even end up a bit stronger than this if a
more N/W track with the storm occurs. This could lead to some
damage and power outages and will also help cause water to pile
up along the coast.
By Sunday evening, the storm should be rapidly pulling away to
the northeast with generally tranquil but cold weather for early
next week.
Overall, it will continue to bear watching to see how things
shake out over the next couple days and how guidance handles the
features in the wake of our recent storm. Forecast details
should come into clearer focus as we go through the week.
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