OT

[GloryDawg]

Historically Texas is fool's gold for Democrats just like Pennsylvania is for Republicans. Trump has kinda changed the math on Pennsylvania & may have changed Texas also with the idiotic endorsement of Paxton.

Paxton has already won statewide election and Talenfreakco is just weird.

 

[Wesson Bulldog]

The money being spent in Miss is all for the 2nd Congressional District. The growth of Flora and Germantown has put that district into play. Even Kamala coming to campaign for Bennie. Bennie will end up wining it but it will be the last time. 2028 his district will change.

Yes, sadly we in Copiah County are in that District.

 

[patdog]

No need to vote when the outcome is clearly in the bag - which was the case well before MS "turned" Republican - unless you get woolly about civic responsibility.

The outcome is almost always in the bag almost everywhere. Districts are gerrymandered to ensure one party of the other wins & both parties punish anyone who runs against the incumbent in the primary.

 

[BreckyBratt]

The money being spent in Miss is all for the 2nd Congressional District. The growth of Flora and Germantown has put that district into play. Even Kamala coming to campaign for Bennie. Bennie will end up wining it but it will be the last time. 2028 his district will change.

I think Buttigieg is gonna be on the trail in Mississippi also. Benny is pretty much a lock so I figure Kamala and Pete are here to stump for Colom more than Benny.

 

[FormerBully]

I have spoken to a few people I know out in Texas. They are sitting this one out to give the finger to Trump and republicans. Mississippi is not going blue, but it is a great spot to draw money away from close races. Honestly, I am done voting for both parties. They are basically the same, nothing gets better.

 

[FormerBully]

I was told by a few people Phil Bryant appointed Smith because he felt he could easily replace her when he was ready to run. Any truth? Why did he never run?

 

[TheFlood]

Absolutely Not - The Democrats just cannot win a statewide election in Mississippi. The ceiling for Democrats is 47%-48%.

CHS is not a good candidate. A better Republican candidate would get 54%-55% of the vote. CHS got the Senate appointment from Phil Bryant because multiple other politicians declined it (specifically Tate Reeves but others also)

Scott Colom has similar political beliefs as Mike Espy and is not as well known statewide. He will not get more votes than Espy.

That’s complete horse ****

 

[HRMSU]

I have spoken to a few people I know out in Texas. They are sitting this one out to give the finger to Trump and republicans. Mississippi is not going blue, but it is a great spot to draw money away from close races. Honestly, I am done voting for both parties. They are basically the same, nothing gets better.

I don't know if it's possible to describe how bad a candidate Paxton is. I'm sure people are sitting out but Cornyn or a middle of the road republican candidate wins Texas easy especially against a candidate like Talarico. The fact that it's close or he's losing underscores how bad a candidate he is.

 

[FormerBully]

I don't know if it's possible to describe how bad a candidate Paxton is. I'm sure people are sitting out but Cornyn or a middle of the road republican candidate wins Texas easy especially against a candidate like Talarico. The fact that it's close or he's losing underscores how bad a candidate he is.

Agreed, Paxton is one of the worst candidates I have seen and that is saying a lot.

 

[mstateglfr]

I don't know if it's possible to describe how bad a candidate Paxton is. I'm sure people are sitting out but Cornyn or a middle of the road republican candidate wins Texas easy especially against a candidate like Talarico. The fact that it's close or he's losing underscores how bad a candidate he is.

Agreed, Paxton is one of the worst candidates I have seen and that is saying a lot.

Yeah, he seems like a terrible person. Like just a really 17ing shítty person in multiple ways.

Yet he was elected, so people like that he is awful or don't care.
And he won this nomination, so people like that he is awful or don't care.

It has to be pretty confidence shaking to be someone that lost to Paxton. Knowing voters would rather have Paxton that you?...oof, that's rough.

 

[DesotoCountyDawg]

Yeah, he seems like a terrible person. Like just a really 17ing shítty person in multiple ways.

Yet he was elected, so people like that he is awful or don't care.
And he won this nomination, so people like that he is awful or don't care.

It has to be pretty confidence shaking to be someone that lost to Paxton. Knowing voters would rather have Paxton that you?...oof, that's rough.

Trump and his group threw tons of money in that race to oust Cornyn because he wouldn’t bend the knee and kiss the ring so he had to go. Cornyn would have smoked Talarico.

 

[mstateglfr]

Trump and his group threw tons of money in that race to oust Cornyn because he wouldn’t bend the knee and kiss the ring so he had to go. Cornyn would have smoked Talarico.

Yeah, it's a really interesting situation from an analytical perspecive.
And really sad situation from representative and political perspectives.


I have 0 sympathy for Cornyn. Him having his decades long career end by receiving half as many votes as Paxton is hilarious.
But it's crazy to see people actually vote for Paxton. People really did go to a voting booth and decide they want Paxton.
Wild.

The money being spent on this crap is even more insane than NIL.
It's unhinged. And its disgusting to see how the outside groups can say or claim basically anything about a random politician. Without consequence.



All elections need to be capped at 2 months long from the file date.
And Citizens United needs to be stopped through legislation.

 

[HRMSU]

Trump and his group threw tons of money in that race to oust Cornyn because he wouldn’t bend the knee and kiss the ring so he had to go. Cornyn would have smoked Talarico.

Yep. Egos make you do stupid things sometimes and the damage can cost a lot of money. It's no different in the real world just on a much smaller scale.

 

[HRMSU]

Yeah, it's a really interesting situation from an analytical perspecive.
And really sad situation from representative and political perspectives.


I have 0 sympathy for Cornyn. Him having his decades long career end by receiving half as many votes as Paxton is hilarious.
But it's crazy to see people actually vote for Paxton. People really did go to a voting booth and decide they want Paxton.
Wild.

The money being spent on this crap is even more insane than NIL.
It's unhinged. And its disgusting to see how the outside groups can say or claim basically anything about a random politician. Without consequence.



All elections need to be capped at 2 months long from the file date.
And Citizens United needs to be stopped through legislation.

Trust me people aren't voting for Paxton in the general because it's Paxton. Also, if you think people skip the midterms they sure as heck skip the midterm primaries so you get what you get.

I've yet to meet anybody excited to vote for Paxton most say they are voting against insanity at least what they perceive is insanity.

Yep, Texas has some real winners in this cycle.

 

[HRMSU]

Yeah, he seems like a terrible person. Like just a really 17ing shítty person in multiple ways.

Yet he was elected, so people like that he is awful or don't care.
And he won this nomination, so people like that he is awful or don't care.

It has to be pretty confidence shaking to be someone that lost to Paxton. Knowing voters would rather have Paxton that you?...oof, that's rough.

Your last paragraph is my point with Talarico. If he loses to Paxton in a mid-term given the current environment it will show just how red Texas' foundation is.

If Dems just ran a solid moderate center left candidate they steal this seat this year. Beto is probably somewhere kicking himself for missing this opportunity.

 

[Drebin]

The Republicans nominating Paxton instead of John Cornyn may flip the Senate to the Democrats

The senate will not flip to the democrats. I expect that worse case scenario, it stays 53-47, but it's likely that R's actually pick up a senate seat.

There's a better chance of the sun going into Red Giant phase and killing us all tomorrow than there is of Talarico beating Paxton in a statewide race. Paxton is a terrible candidate, but he's won multiple statewide elections and Talarico is unelectable. If you blame republicans for running a terrible candidate without acknowledging that the dems have put forward an even worse one, you kinda show your bias.

House is another story. It will come down to the wire. But I believe it's a lot closer than the polls are saying it is.

 

[Dawgbite]

I was told by a few people Phil Bryant appointed Smith because he felt he could easily replace her when he was ready to run. Any truth? Why did he never run?

I heard the same thing. I think the Brett Favre scandal and all the accompanying fraud tainted Phil from ever being elected again.

 

[Podgy]

Just mouth the right slogans, scare people into thinking the guy or gal on the other team will ruin the country and it doesn't matter to some how awful of a candidate or human being you are. Or how monumentally stupid you are. Tuberville is one of the dumbest and most ignorant politicians around. He's at "Go Gata" level. But that doesn't matter to a lot of people. He says things you can put on a shirt and lots of adults seem to want to go to rallies dressed in shirts, hats, shoes, flags, socks, bags, etc with pics of their guy and his slogans.

 

[DesotoCountyDawg]

The senate will not flip to the democrats. I expect that worse case scenario, it stays 53-47, but it's likely that R's actually pick up a senate seat.

There's a better chance of the sun going into Red Giant phase and killing us all tomorrow than there is of Talarico beating Paxton in a statewide race. Paxton is a terrible candidate, but he's won multiple statewide elections and Talarico is unelectable. If you blame republicans for running a terrible candidate without acknowledging that the dems have put forward an even worse one, you kinda show your bias.

House is another story. It will come down to the wire. But I believe it's a lot closer than the polls are saying it is.

The House is flipping.

Senate will be razor thin.

It will be a deadlocked session of Congress where nothing gets done again because no one is going to play nice. Rinse and repeat.

 

[Drebin]

The House is flipping.

Senate will be razor thin.

It will be a deadlocked session of Congress where nothing gets done again because no one is going to play nice. Rinse and repeat.

I only see dems flipping one red senate seat, and that's NC.

I think Ossoff is cruising to victory in GA.

All the polls that have dems with leads in these deep red states is just horse crap. I don't know how many times this has to happen before people start to see it for what it is. IA, AK, TX, KS, those are staying red. OH will go with Husted.

Collins will end up winning Maine by six or more points. Sununu's internal polling has him up in NH, which would be a flip. I don't expect Tafoya to win in MN but I think it's going to be very close.

On the house side, it's going to be close. The latest reliable poll has the generic ballot at D+4. If that's actually the case on election day, it will be interesting. GOP gerrymandering is going to make a huge difference in how it all shakes out, I'm afraid.

Dems better make hay now. With the census coming, if the GOP holds the white house in 28 and has at least one branch of gov't, the house district map is going to be transformed in a way that could shut out dems for a decade or more. They need to moderate, they need to abandon some of the craziness, and they need to start putting forward some strong center-left candidates that indies and moderate republicans can get behind.

 

[Shmuley]

The House is flipping.

Senate will be razor thin.

It will be a deadlocked session of Congress where nothing gets done again because no one is going to play nice. Rinse and repeat.

As a stock market gambler, I look forward to two more years of hopeless gridlock.

 

[CoastRat.sixpack]

It's only not a blowout because Cindy Smith is such an unbelievably weak senator/candidate. A good Democratic candidate might have had a ghost of a chance. But not this guy.

Met with her in her office in DC once. I'm still trying to wash the dumb off me. OMG, you have no idea. And I agreee, somehow Dems choice of candidate might be worse. MS would be the last state to ever swing blue, but Dems don't do themselves any favors.

 

[CoastRat.sixpack]

I'll wait for the answer or answers as well.

As a lifelong Mississippi native, there is only one metric I use to evaluate a Mississippi Senator: the dollar amount of federal largesse delivered to Mississippi communities compliments of the position/leadership/influence of said Mississippi Senator. It is literally the only metric that makes a rat's @$$ of difference to this state. Historically, Mississippi has been blessed with Senators who over-perform primarily due to inherent political skills/relationship skills and longevity. Takes a while for them to get to that point, but once there, the pay-off is enormous.

And thank God for the blue states paying all that into the fed, so that the red states like MS that are "taker" states can have some money to spend. Don't yell at me, look it up.

 

[Drebin]

And thank God for the blue states paying all that into the fed, so that the red states like MS that are "taker" states can have some money to spend. Don't yell at me, look it up.

Your attempts to make a very binary and simplistic argument to gloss over a very nuanced and complicated reality to score some cheap political points is duly noted.

 

[John Deaux VII]

But that takes seniority which she will climb the ladder pretty high after this election cycle.

If you keep re electing new people what @Shmuley pointed out above will never get done.

She’s gotten a lot more money here than you think.

I agree with that. Odds are, we would be better off sticking with her than running someone different. I was just trying to explain why I think she is seen as a weak Senator at this juncture, when you compare her to what Mississippi has been accustomed to over the past 50 or 60 years - Cochran, Lott, Stennis, and Eastland.

 

[mstateglfr]

The House is flipping.

Senate will be razor thin.

It will be a deadlocked session of Congress where nothing gets done again because no one is going to play nice. Rinse and repeat.

What is tough to grasp and accept is that 'nothing gets done again because no one is going to play nice' is also applicable to times when the same party has a majority in both the House and Senate.

 

[DesotoCountyDawg]

What is tough to grasp and accept is that 'nothing gets done again because no one is going to play nice' is also applicable to times when the same party has a majority in both the House and Senate.

It’s been applicable for the last 30 years.