Our most likely tourney scenario

[MSUDC11-2.0]

Is an 8/9 seed game paired with Duke in Raleigh or Houston in Wichita.

We technically could be paired with an SEC 1 seed, especially with the SEC maybe getting 13 or 14 teams in the field. However, they try if at all possible to avoid teams from the same conference meeting before the Sweet 16, and in the past when it’s been been forced to happen, they seem to do it a little further down the seed line (2 vs 7 or 3 vs 6)

By rule we cannot be paired with Alabama before the Sweet 16 since we played them twice already. We also cannot play Memphis in the first round since we played in the regular season.

If you are looking for teams in the 7-8-9 range who can’t shoot, well for starters there aren’t many of those, but the three teams that shoot the worst in that range are St. Mary’s, Marquette, and Louisville. So maybe we want one of those as a first round matchup.

 

[HailStout]

Duke is a good matchup for us, right?

 

[MSUDC11-2.0]

Duke is a good matchup for us, right?

Gosh no. But Cooper Flagg hurt his ankle yesterday so if he’s out long term I think it’s clearly the least objectionable 1 seed. May be that even with Flagg. But would not call it a good matchup.

 

[MSUDC11-2.0]

I think the bigger focus should be can we win the 8/9 game against whoever. I would not talk yourself into us beating a 1 seed. We’ve played 5 games against 1/2 seed caliber teams this year and are 0-5 with an average margin of defeat of almost 18 points.

 

[DAWGSANDSAINTS]

Il say, some of our friends on this board are either delusional or just very, very optimistic or haven’t seen this basketball team play the last 8/9 weeks.

 

[JackShephard]

It's pathetic that this team ended up on the 8/9 line again (assuming it happens). This team should have been no worse than a 5.

 

[MSUDC11-2.0]

It's pathetic that this team ended up on the 8/9 line again (assuming it happens). This team should have been no worse than a 5.

When you finish 2-5 and 6 of those games were highly winnable… this is what you get. We were in good position after the A&M win and lost it down the stretch.

 

[JackShephard]

 

[Shmuley]

When you finish 2-5 and 6 of those games were highly winnable… this is what you get. We were in good position after the A&M win and lost it down the stretch.

DS knew better than to start a thread after the A&M win speculating on tourney seeding based on a strong finish to the regular season. He knew better than to do that. I blame DS.

 

[BulldogBlitz]

I think the bigger focus should be can we win the 8/9 game against whoever. I would not talk yourself into us beating a 1 seed. We’ve played 5 games against 1/2 seed caliber teams this year and are 0-5 with an average margin of defeat of almost 18 points.

The genespage folx aren't going to be happy with you pointing out reality.

 

[patdog]

I think the bigger focus should be can we win the 8/9 game against whoever. I would not talk yourself into us beating a 1 seed. We’ve played 5 games against 1/2 seed caliber teams this year and are 0-5 with an average margin of defeat of almost 18 points.

Yeah. Winning 1 game would be a huge accomplishment for this team. Ain’t no way we’re winning 2. I think were a 10 seed, so beating a 7 will be fairly unlikely.

 

[MSUDC11-2.0]

Yeah. Winning 1 game would be a huge accomplishment for this team. Ain’t no way we’re winning 2.

This year’s group of 1 and 2 seeds are stronger than normal, IMO. I won’t be surprised at all if it gets to the Elite 8 and it’s been pretty chalky to that point.

 

[patdog]

DS knew better than to start a thread after the A&M win speculating on tourney seeding based on a strong finish to the regular season. He knew better than to do that. I blame DS.

This is the same guy who once said to me as I was serving for the match when we were playing tennis together, just don’t choke. Why would you even say something like that?

 

[Bneal]

It's pathetic that this team ended up on the 8/9 line again (assuming it happens). This team should have been no worse than a 5.

Kugel virus

 

[HailStout]

Gosh no. But Cooper Flagg hurt his ankle yesterday so if he’s out long term I think it’s clearly the least objectionable 1 seed. May be that even with Flagg. But would not call it a good matchup.

I didn’t think these ****** were needed. I was apparently wrong

 

[johnson86-1]

Yeah. Winning 1 game would be a huge accomplishment for this team. Ain’t no way we’re winning 2. I think were a 10 seed, so beating a 7 will be fairly unlikely.

If we end up on the 8/9 line, best case scenario is likely going to be like two of Stansbury's season where we actually played well in the tournament but we were playing Duke and Memphis in the second round. As much as people claimed Stansbury's teams choked in the tournament, it was just as likely that underachieving in the regular season is what killed his post tournament success because it screwed up seeding. Xavier and Butler both won at least one more game after beating us if I remember, so that was partly just catching a hot team. We got screwed having to play TJ Ford and Texas basically in a home game for Texas when we were the 3 seed. Those kind of these happen and can't just be blamed on coaching. But there was no reason for us to be playing Duke and Memphis in 2nd round games with those teams. Should have been probably a 5 or 6 seeds those years and playing a much better 2nd round matchups.

 

[ronpolk]

I’d rather us be an 11 or 12 seed rather than 7-10. Feel like that give us a better shot at a sweet 16, which I don’t feel is very likely at all.

 

[patdog]

If we end up on the 8/9 line, best case scenario is likely going to be like two of Stansbury's season where we actually played well in the tournament but we were playing Duke and Memphis in the second round. As much as people claimed Stansbury's teams choked in the tournament, it was just as likely that underachieving in the regular season is what killed his post tournament success because it screwed up seeding. Xavier and Butler both won at least one more game after beating us if I remember, so that was partly just catching a hot team. We got screwed having to play TJ Ford and Texas basically in a home game for Texas when we were the 3 seed. Those kind of these happen and can't just be blamed on coaching. But there was no reason for us to be playing Duke and Memphis in 2nd round games with those teams. Should have been probably a 5 or 6 seeds those years and playing a much better 2nd round matchups.

Yeah. Stans had a lot of bad luck in the tournament. Nobody knew how good Butler was at the time, but that turned out to be a very bad draw. And Xavier was as hot as any team in the country when we played them in the tournament. And then there's the time Winsome Frazier fell over Gene Swindoll in Oxford and missed a month of the season, which dropped us to an 8 seed and a "neutral" 2nd round match-up with Duke 50 miles from their campus.

 

[Seinfeld]

It's pathetic that this team ended up on the 8/9 line again (assuming it happens). This team should have been no worse than a 5.

I don’t disagree, but I think that some of our early season success tricked a lot of us into thinking that we were better than we truly were, and SEC play has revealed some pretty serious deficiencies

In order to beat even just a good(not great) team, you’ve generally got to be able to

- defend the perimeter - we can’t
- shoot reasonably well from deep - we can’t
- buckle down in crunch time - we don’t
- have a starting 5 that consistently gives you something - nope

Our Hubbard/Murphy combo is something special to build around, but Jans didn’t build very well last offseason

 

[Darryl Steight]

If we end up on the 8/9 line, best case scenario is likely going to be like two of Stansbury's season where we actually played well in the tournament but we were playing Duke and Memphis in the second round. As much as people claimed Stansbury's teams choked in the tournament, it was just as likely that underachieving in the regular season is what killed his post tournament success because it screwed up seeding. Xavier and Butler both won at least one more game after beating us if I remember, so that was partly just catching a hot team. We got screwed having to play TJ Ford and Texas basically in a home game for Texas when we were the 3 seed. Those kind of these happen and can't just be blamed on coaching. But there was no reason for us to be playing Duke and Memphis in 2nd round games with those teams. Should have been probably a 5 or 6 seeds those years and playing a much better 2nd round matchups.

*I don't know who originally created the Jansbury pic, but props to you sir.

 

[stateu1]

This team is not very good. A 5 seed is ridiculous. If Hubbard is not scoring, no one is.

 

[Darryl Steight]

I’d rather us be an 11 or 12 seed rather than 7-10. Feel like that give us a better shot at a sweet 16, which I don’t feel is very likely at all.

Even a 10 is much better than 8/9, because at least it gives us a chance to get a good draw. We're much better off there hoping to get a 2-seed that doesn't shoot the 3 as well. Any of the 1's are obviously a huge problem.

For example, I know it's like praying to win the lottery, but please put us in a revenge game as the 10 in the bracket where Michigan State is the 2. I like our chances.

 

[patdog]

Even a 10 is much better than 8/9, because at least it gives us a chance to get a good draw. We're much better off there hoping to get a 2-seed that doesn't shoot the 3 as well. Any of the 1's are obviously a huge problem.

For example, I know it's like praying to win the lottery, but please put us in a revenge game as the 10 in the bracket where Michigan State is the 2. I like our chances.

I'd rather play a 8-9 seed than a 7 seed every time. I doubt we beat a 7 seed, but I think we've got a chance vs an 8-9. The 2nd round draw is meaningless if you never get there. Really, it's meaningless anyway. We're not beating a top 4 seed.

 

[ETK99]

It's pathetic that this team ended up on the 8/9 line again (assuming it happens). This team should have been no worse than a 5.

Is it really? This team is what it is now and it's not very good. We signed the wrong guys in the portal again, but not sure we could've done better. We need to develop some talent so we don't rely as much on the portal. We signed too many this time but had to.

 

[Darryl Steight]

I'd rather play a 8-9 seed than a 7 seed every time. I doubt we beat a 7 seed, but I think we've got a chance vs an 8-9. The 2nd round draw is meaningless if you never get there. Really, it's meaningless anyway. We're not beating a top 4 seed.

Okay you'd rather win 1 and be done. I get that, I guess that would make it technically a 'better' season than last year. I think you'll get your wish.

Personally I'd rather go into the tournament with at least the slightest glimmer of hope to win a couple games. If we're playing Houston in a second round no-hope game, I won't be super fired up to watch us play a Marquette in the first round.

 

[MSUDC11-2.0]

Okay you'd rather win 1 and be done. I get that, I guess that would make it technically a 'better' season than last year. I think you'll get your wish.

Personally I'd rather go into the tournament with at least the slightest glimmer of hope to win a couple games. If we're playing Houston in a second round no-hope game, I won't be super fired up to watch us play a Marquette in the first round.

I can’t think of a possible team on the 1 or 2 seed line that I feel like we could beat. We have not even been competitive against those kind of teams this year, minus the Bama home game.

I mean maybe a Michigan State or Texas Tech would feel a little better at first…. But I think we would just as easily lose those games. We haven’t beaten a team not named LSU in a month.

 

[Darryl Steight]

I can’t think of a possible team on the 1 or 2 seed line that I feel like we could beat. We have not even been competitive against those kind of teams this year, minus the Bama home game.

I mean maybe a Michigan State or Texas Tech would feel a little better at first…. But I think we would just as easily lose those games. We haven’t beaten a team not named LSU in a month.

We don't need to argue over all this sh*t that doesn't matter until the brackets come out, but there isn't much difference at all (in my estimation) between an 8 and a 7... it probably all depends on their style of play and whether they will shoot 60% from 3 on the day we play them.

SO, since we are going to play one of those teams in the first round, and IF we were to win... I'd rather play a 2 than a 1 in the second round and take our chances at getting a good matchup (I used Michigan State). I'm not being belligerent, just trying to clarify what I was saying.

 

[615dawg]

I can’t think of a possible team on the 1 or 2 seed line that I feel like we could beat. We have not even been competitive against those kind of teams this year, minus the Bama home game.

I mean maybe a Michigan State or Texas Tech would feel a little better at first…. But I think we would just as easily lose those games. We haven’t beaten a team not named LSU in a month.

I wouldn’t want to play this Michigan State team. They will be my pick to win it.

the best we can hope for if we are on the 8/9 line is Houston in Wichita.

 

[patdog]

We don't need to argue over all this sh*t that doesn't matter until the brackets come out, but there isn't much difference at all (in my estimation) between an 8 and a 7... it probably all depends on their style of play and whether they will shoot 60% from 3 on the day we play them.

SO, since we are going to play one of those teams in the first round, and IF we were to win... I'd rather play a 2 than a 1 in the second round and take our chances at getting a good matchup (I used Michigan State). I'm not being belligerent, just trying to clarify what I was saying.

I think where you and I differ is, I don't think it matters if we play a 1, 2, 3 or 4 seed in the 2nd round. We're not winning. We're probably not getting there anyway. We haven't won an NCAA tournament game in 17 years. I want the best possible chance of breaking that streak and then whatever happens after that happens.

 

[Darryl Steight]

I wouldn’t want to play this Michigan State team. They will be my pick to win it.

the best we can hope for if we are on the 8/9 line is Houston in Wichita.

Houston is the 2nd best 3-pt shooting team in the country.

Michigan State is worse than us at 3-pt shooting percentage.

This will all play out, but man, from what I've seen out of us this year there's no doubt who I'd rather play.

***Again, yes, I realize we will likely lose to either one or any 1 or 2 seed. Just saying our odds have to be better against a non-3-pt-shooting team.

 

[ll Martain ll]

I hate the idea of going into the tournament a pessimist, and assuming MSU is a bad team and has no chance and is just going to lose. I understand that's the most likely outcome, but this team earned their single digit seed. I just can't dwell on all of the what-ifs. Sure, it would have been nice to be a 3 seed and have an inside track to the Sweet 16, but that's not what happened.

I'm on this ride until it's over. Being in the tournament is always more fun than not being in it.