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Our offense is predictable by AI

LonesomeRooster

LonesomeRooster

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I don't want to cut and paste from another site (even though it is not VIP) because it is someone else's work product, but a poster ran some video through AI, and he found that on offense we are over 75% predictable based on our formations, motion and personnel. I mean, this is the world we live in now so how could we not have this information and make adjustments? Apparently, the AI program suggested that we come out in a spread formation with 5 WRs and throw on every down.

FWIW, the same program predicted that Florida would fire Napier and hire Kiffin.
 
Lurker123

Lurker123

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LonesomeRooster said:
I don't want to cut and paste from another site (even though it is not VIP) because it is someone else's work product, but a poster ran some video through AI, and he found that on offense we are over 75% predictable based on our formations, motion and personnel. I mean, this is the world we live in now so how could we not have this information and make adjustments? Apparently, the AI program suggested that we come out in a spread formation with 5 WRs and throw on every down.

FWIW, the same program predicted that Florida would fire Napier and hire Kiffin.
Click to expand...

Sounds bad, but would be curious what level of predictability is there for other teams.

Meaning, its not a big deal if most teams are in the 70's, but it is if most teams are in the 50's, etc.
 
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LonesomeRooster

LonesomeRooster

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Lurker123 said:
Sounds bad, but would be curious what level of predictability is there for other teams.

Meaning, its not a big deal if most teams are in the 70's, but it is if most teams are in the 50's, etc.
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Good point. I don't think the post addressed that but I will keep following to see what they say.
 
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Piscis

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I'd bet that would be the case with most college teams. With only 20 hours of practice allowed per week, players can only learn so many plays.
 
LonesomeRooster

LonesomeRooster

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Since it is public I think I can copy and paste.

**EFFICIENCY BY PREDICTABILITY**
High predictability situations:
- Obvious running downs: 2.8 yards per attempt
- Heavy personnel runs: 3.1 yards per attempt
- Obvious passing downs: 45% completion, 6.2 YPA

Lower predictability situations:
- Balanced situations: 4.7 yards per play
- Constraint concepts: 8.1 yards per play (tiny sample size though)

**PLAY-CALLING DIVERSITY COMPARISON**
- South Carolina: 3.2 different concepts per 10 plays
- SEC Average: ~5.8 different concepts per 10 plays
- Elite offenses: 7+ different concepts per 10 plays

**MOST DAMAGING "TELLS"**
1. Heavy personnel = run (95% accurate for defense)
2. Shotgun 3rd & long = pass (90% accurate)
3. Under center 1st down = inside run (85% accurate)
4. Motion to trips = bubble/quick game (80% accurate)

**SEQUENTIAL PATTERNS DEFENSES ARE EXPLOITING**
- After successful run: 75% chance of another run call
- After incomplete pass: 80% chance of run on next down
- After penalty: 90% chance of conservative call
 
18IsTheMan

18IsTheMan

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For kicks, I asked Chat GPT the other day what kind of offense you should run if your offensive line can't block.

I can't say it came up with worse ideas than what we've seen.
 
LonesomeRooster

LonesomeRooster

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Piscis said:
I'd bet that would be the case with most college teams. With only 20 hours of practice allowed per week, players can only learn so many plays.
Click to expand...
I just posted a comparison statistic. Looks like we are more predictable than most teams and less efficient. How much of that is player dependent and how much is coaching I don't know.
 
Cobie

Cobie

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Since this thread until this point is entirely made up of the thoughts of one individual -- Your second take (Lurker) is the most releveant.

All teams use predictability models and then tweak accordingly based on matchups/talent, etc.

So until you compare our results to those of the most successful teams to date - this is completely meaningless in terms of you stirring up more outrage for the day.

Speaking of which, I've got to give you props on your "The Sky Is Falling" onslaught this season with your "Bad Cop" players.

Club Outrage™️ is on fire -- an early Christmas for you.

So much so you have some believing we're going to fire a coach who is just inked a big contract thru 2030 and is coming off one our the top five seasons ever.

Quite impressive. :)
 
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Piscis

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Cobie said:
Since this thread until this point is entirely made up of the thoughts of one individual -- Your second take (Lurker) is the most releveant.

All teams use predictability models and then tweak accordingly based on matchups/talent, etc.

So until you compare our results to those of the most successful teams to date - this is completely meaningless in terms of you stirring up more outrage for the day.

Speaking of which, I've got to give you props on your "The Sky Is Falling" onslaught this season with your "Bad Cop" players.

Club Outrage™️is on fire -- an early Christmas for you.

So much so you have some believing we're going to fire a coach who is just inked a big contract thru 2030 and is coming off one our the top five seasons ever.

Quite impressive. :)
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Beamer is going to milk that 9 win season for tens of millions of dollars. If he has another 5-7 season (which could happen) this year, he and all of his defenders (you) will point to that 9 win season to justify keeping him around. If he has another 5-7 type season in 2026, you and he will have some more complex rationalizing to do.

I don't think he's going to be fired after this season. I think he's going to be around for a couple more seasons and he will leave with a, typical for South Carolina, barely above .500 record and the fans will blame him for the problems in the program like they have with every other head coach. I cannot recall any head coach outside of Morrison, who died after he had appeared to turn things around at South Carolina football, that was not blamed for the next coach's failings.
 
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18IsTheMan

18IsTheMan

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Piscis said:
Beamer is going to milk that 9 win season for tens of millions of dollars. If he has another 5-7 season (which could happen) this year, he and all of his defenders (you) will point to that 9 win season to justify keeping him around. If he has another 5-7 type season in 2026, you and he will have some more complex rationalizing to do.

I don't think he's going to be fired after this season. I think he's going to be around for a couple more seasons and he will leave with a, typical for South Carolina, barely above .500 record and the fans will blame him for the problems in the program like they have with every other head coach. I cannot recall any head coach outside of Morrison, who died after he had appeared to turn things around at South Carolina football, that was not blamed for the next coach's failings.
Click to expand...

No matter how this season unfolds, Beamer's conference record is going to be about the same as Muschamp's. Could be slightly better, but most likely will be slightly worse. The fan base quite literally ran Muschamp out of town.
 
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Piscis

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18IsTheMan said:
No matter how this season unfolds, Beamer's conference record is going to be about the same as Muschamp's. Could be slightly better, but most likely will be slightly worse. The fan base quite literally ran Muschamp out of town.
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Beamer is more likeable than Muschamp was. He is sort of like Richt was at UGA (with less wins). The fans fell in love with Richt as a person and ignored the team's failings on the field. Richt's average wins per season were better than anyone before him so his fans always pointed to that too. The same thing, to a degree, is going on with Beamer.

Muschamp was gruff and the fans didn't love him as a person. When his record slumped, it was easy for them to call for his firing.
 
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Gradstudent

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I believe that, sitting at home or at the game as a novice, I call out to whoever is with me what we are about to run and we run exactly it almost every time, I'm sure I'm not alone in doing that among fans.

I need to start calling out each play i anticipate in the series before we run it and see how I do.
 
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18IsTheMan

18IsTheMan

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Gradstudent said:
I believe that, sitting at home or at the game as a novice, I call out to whoever is with me what we are about to run and we run exactly it almost every time, I'm sure I'm not alone in doing that among fans.

I need to start calling out each play i anticipate in the series before we run it and see how I do.
Click to expand...
 
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SILVERSPUR-rier

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How much a year would we have to pay Chat GBT to call our plays? Would be interesting to try it for a series or two, just for fun...
 
Lurker123

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Piscis said:
I don't think he's going to be fired after this season. I think he's going to be around for a couple more seasons and he will leave with a, typical for South Carolina, barely above .500 record and the fans will blame him for the problems in the program like they have with every other head coach.
Click to expand...

This is true, but it transcends our fansbase, imo.

The new guy is always cleaning up the mess and playing catch up because of the last guy. Right up until the new guy becomes the last guy.
 
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cofcgamecock9

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18IsTheMan said:
No matter how this season unfolds, Beamer's conference record is going to be about the same as Muschamp's. Could be slightly better, but most likely will be slightly worse. The fan base quite literally ran Muschamp out of town.
Click to expand...

This is such a ridiculous comparison. You are acting like Beamer wouldn't be "run out of town" if his results were the same as Muschamp's. But you are using the OVERALL record to try and argue that point. Individual seasons matter. Trajectory of the program matters. I can promise if Beamer goes two years in a row with the LAST TWO season records of Muschamp, he will be run out of town too. IMuschamp got fired because of his last two seasons. Not his "overall" record.

Yes, Muschamp's overall conference record and Beamer's may be similar after this season. But are you going to try and act like it doesn't matter that Muschamp's conference record got WORSE each year from year 2 to year 5??? You don't think that matters??

Muschamp's record his last two seasons at South Carolina...

4-8 and then 2-5 before being fired.

Beamer is sitting at 2-2 right now for 2025. I will tell you what. Let Beamer go 4-8 this year and then start out the season next year 2-5 and see if he isn't run out of town.

Context matters. Your comparison is silly.
 
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RAtheOLcoach

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LonesomeRooster said:
I don't want to cut and paste from another site (even though it is not VIP) because it is someone else's work product, but a poster ran some video through AI, and he found that on offense we are over 75% predictable based on our formations, motion and personnel. I mean, this is the world we live in now so how could we not have this information and make adjustments? Apparently, the AI program suggested that we come out in a spread formation with 5 WRs and throw on every down.

FWIW, the same program predicted that Florida would fire Napier and hire Kiffin.
Click to expand...
I could’ve told you this. I rewatched our first two games and charted every play. We are super predictable to the point where I called almost every play we ran on our opening drive against Vandy based on the formation we were. Ask the folks in 309.
 
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LonesomeRooster

LonesomeRooster

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RAtheOLcoach said:
I could’ve told you this. I rewatched our first two games and charted every play. We are super predictable to the point where I called almost every play we ran on our opening drive against Vandy based on the formation we were. Ask the folks in 309.
Click to expand...
Would it be useful, or even possible, to use AI to prepare for other teams - maybe even during a game?
 
Lurker123

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LonesomeRooster said:
Would it be useful, or even possible, to use AI to prepare for other teams - maybe even during a game?
Click to expand...

I would be shocked if it isn't used already by many teams.

It could replace entire staffs whose job it is to break down those tapes. If it does a good job.
 
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LonesomeRooster

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Cobie

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KingWard said:
It's a little bit like a business balance sheet. Total assets equal total liabilities plus shareholder equity. It's always "flat".
Click to expand...

How do you think he's managed to accumulate as many wins as Spurrier had during his career so far?

If we're talking balance sheets, four years of reporting is rather signficant.

Any theories?
 
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Piscis

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Cobie said:
How do you think he's managed to accumulate as many wins as Spurrier had during his career so far?

If we're talking balance sheets, four years of reporting is rather signficant.

Any theories?
Click to expand...
My theory is that Spurrier really wasn't anything special here. Outside of 3 11 win seasons, he had one 9 win season and a bunch of above average, one or two games above .500 seasons. Those 3 great seasons were the result of catching lightning in a bottle in recruiting but he couldn't maintain that level of recruiting and dropped back to a 7 win season. South Carolina finished the season ranked in only 4 of his 10 full seasons here, not exactly a powerhouse era for the program. Spurrier's first four seasons, he never had a ranked team at the end of the season. He finished his tenure here only 4 games over .500 in conference play (over 10 full seasons and 4 conference games into the season he quit, he was 0-4 in conference his last season). He backed into the SECCG with 3 conference losses and proceeded to get thumped by Auburn in the SECCG and then lose to FSU in the bowl game. I doubt Spurrier points to his time at South Carolina as an example of how great his career was.

Your position seems to be that the fans should be very happy with a mediocre coach producing mediocre results. When you set the bar low, it's easy for a coach to look good.
 
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Cobie

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Piscis said:
My theory is that Spurrier really wasn't anything special here. Outside of 3 11 win seasons, he had one 9 win season and a bunch of above average, one or two games above .500 seasons. Those 3 great seasons were the result of catching lightning in a bottle in recruiting but he couldn't maintain that level of recruiting and dropped back to a 7 win season. South Carolina finished the season ranked in only 4 of his 10 full seasons here, not exactly a powerhouse era for the program. Spurrier's first four seasons, he never had a ranked team at the end of the season. He finished his tenure here only 4 games over .500 in conference play (over 10 full seasons and 4 conference games into the season he quit, he was 0-4 in conference his last season). He backed into the SECCG with 3 conference losses and proceeded to get thumped by Auburn in the SECCG and then lose to FSU in the bowl game. I doubt Spurrier points to his time at South Carolina as an example of how great his career was.

Your position seems to be that the fans should be very happy with a mediocre coach producing mediocre results. When you set the bar low, it's easy for a coach to look good.
Click to expand...

OK Tater.
 
Lurker123

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Piscis said:
My theory is that Spurrier really wasn't anything special here. Outside of 3 11 win seasons, he had one 9 win season and a bunch of above average, one or two games above .500 seasons. Those 3 great seasons were the result of catching lightning in a bottle in recruiting but he couldn't maintain that level of recruiting and dropped back to a 7 win season. South Carolina finished the season ranked in only 4 of his 10 full seasons here, not exactly a powerhouse era for the program. Spurrier's first four seasons, he never had a ranked team at the end of the season. He finished his tenure here only 4 games over .500 in conference play (over 10 full seasons and 4 conference games into the season he quit, he was 0-4 in conference his last season). He backed into the SECCG with 3 conference losses and proceeded to get thumped by Auburn in the SECCG and then lose to FSU in the bowl game. I doubt Spurrier points to his time at South Carolina as an example of how great his career was.

Your position seems to be that the fans should be very happy with a mediocre coach producing mediocre results. When you set the bar low, it's easy for a coach to look good.
Click to expand...

Interesting thought. "Shane is as good as Spurriers worst years" is hardly a good argument. And even then, Spurriers record is about surpass Shanes easily. (Unless Shane starts putting together 11 win seasons, anyone see that coming?)

Muschamp was the best through 3 years, Shane through 4 years. I think that says more about our program than it does those coaches.
 
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