Over/Under Vegas opening SEC win numbers.

[IBleedMaroonDawg]

http://www.saturdaydownsouth.com/2014/vegas-sec-win-totals-june-2014/

CG Technology was the first to post SEC over/unders for 2014:

• Alabama: 10.5
• South Carolina: 9.5
• Auburn: 9.5
• Georgia: 9
• LSU: 9
• Missouri: 8
• Florida: 8
• Ole Miss: 7.5
• Mississippi State: 7
• Texas A&M: 7
• Vanderbilt: 6
• Tennessee: 5
• Arkansas: 4.5
• Kentucky: 3.5

Mine


CG Technology was the first to post SEC over/unders for 2014:

• Alabama: 10.5 UNDER
• South Carolina: 9.5 OVER
• Auburn: 9.5 UNDER
• Georgia: 9 UNDER
• LSU: 9 OVER
• Missouri: 8 UNDER
• Florida: 8 OVER
• Ole Miss: 7.5 UNDER
• Mississippi State: 7 OVER
• Texas A&M: 7 UNDER
• Vanderbilt: 6 UNDER
• Tennessee: 5 OVER
• Arkansas: 4.5 OVER
• Kentucky: 3.5 OVER

 

[57stratdawg]

If we win Seven games - the season is disappointing (assuming Prescott doesn't miss half the season or something).

 

[patdog]

Most of those look pretty good to me. But I definitely think they missed the boat on us. I'd put our over/under at 8. Either I know something they don't know or they know something I don't know.

 

[CookieMonster.sixpack]

Not surprisingly, Vegas nailed it. I'd feel real good about us getting to seven, but getting past seven means beating Auburn, A&M or Ole Miss. I'm not confident we win any of those three. That's one of those lines where you think we've just got to be OVER and then you look up in November and your over bet needs us to win in Oxford to pay out.

The lesson, as always: Don't bet on State. Just don't do it.

 

[ShrubDog]

Well these don't any juice on them.

I have seen Bama 10.5 O(-155) U(+100) , Auburn 9.5 O(-140) U(+115)
Mizz 9.5 not 8

 

[thatsbaseball]

So they`re saying we`ll beat our patsies +Vandy, UK and Arky. What am I missing here...with the team I think we`ll have and the schedule we have this is at least 1 game and maybe 1.5 games low. I`ve learned to not argue with bookies but what`s the problem ? Lack of confidence in Mullen, O line ,depth......? WTF

 

[BingleCocktail]

Injuries notwithstanding, this seems on target for Vegas.

However, I'll take the Over.

 

[121Josey]

7 is a conservative bet. But if they thing that TAMU is going to win only 7, then something has to give.

Here's how the game sets up with TAMU:
1. TAMU is their 6th straight game to start the season.
2. TAMU plays UPigg in Arlington the week before, which makes the State game a trap game.
3. State plays at home following a bye week.
4. TAMU lost a lot of weapons on offense, while State's D is now built to stop an offense like TAMU.

 

[Shmuley]

I feel pretty confident we get 7 if DP stays healthy.

 

[Tin Cup Cowboy]

• Ole Miss: 7.5
• Mississippi State: 7

That 0.5 could have gone either way. Basically it's do we win the Egg or do they.

 

[Confucius Say]

Auburn is 9.5? Look at their schedule. No way they go 10-2. They are at Bama, at State, at OM, at Georgia, and USCe and LSU at home.

 

[NCDawg.sixpack]

So they`re saying we`ll beat our patsies +Vandy, UK and Arky. What am I missing here...with the team I think we`ll have and the schedule we have this is at least 1 game and maybe 1.5 games low. I`ve learned to not argue with bookies but what`s the problem ? Lack of confidence in Mullen, O line ,depth......? WTF

Lack of depth on the OL. Not giving Prescott enough time to throw, and lack of blocking for our RB's.

 

[CookieMonster.sixpack]

So they`re saying we`ll beat our patsies +Vandy, UK and Arky. What am I missing here...with the team I think we`ll have and the schedule we have this is at least 1 game and maybe 1.5 games low. I`ve learned to not argue with bookies but what`s the problem ? Lack of confidence in Mullen, O line ,depth......? WTF

It's quite simple really. Name the 8th win. A&M? Auburn? Ole Miss? At best those are all 50/50 games. If the over/under was 8 or 8.5, as you suggest, that means we'd have to go 2/3 in those games to warrant an over bet. Bettors would be pounding our under very hard. We aren't more talented than any of those three teams. We might be as talented, but certainly not more talented. The line is just right. Any talk of 10-2 is silly. We go 9-3 if everything breaks our way.

 

[patdog]

I think A&M and UM are at least 50-50 and Auburn is close to it. I'll be surprised if we lose all 3.

 

[paindonthurt_]

So does that mean we should be pounding the over on 7 games? The likelihood we lose all 3 is low too.

 

[ShrubDog]

I have not seen MSU at 7 but I guess it matters who your booking with. They have our under juiced and UM over.

UM 7.5 O(-155) U(+115)

MSU 7.5 O(+140) U(-180)