Did you really need the last sentence?
Okay Dad. I won’t be childish on a freaking sports message board.
It’s okay to not agree with rankings, call out their inconsistencies, and have fun posting about it.
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Penn State - N. Dakota St. '25 Collegiate Duals thread
- Thread starter Tom McAndrew
- Start date
Okay Dad. I won’t be childish on a freaking sports message board.
It’s okay to not agree with rankings, call out their inconsistencies, and have fun posting about it.
Maybe he just doesn't appreciate the bit, and isn't in on the fun of finding new ways to make fun of something seen as ludicrous but held fast as wholly justified by its originator (aka the limitations of a closed mindset, "It's how we always do it.").
Dog-piling is meant to be fun, even for the person on the bottom. Virtual dog-piling avoids the chance of injury. It's harmless.
Also, it's okay to have childlike enthusiasm, even if he intended "childish" as derogatory. So I will just lean into that as well.
Some of you guys are nuts w.r.t. an assessment of Desmond "at 141".
I think his taking out Luke shocked all of us, especially because after another year in the room, I expected Luke to have jumped levels and be the clear #1 this year. Heck I think he was the best 125 last year, and just had an unfortunate hiccup at Nationals. Had they wrestled 3 times he would have won 2. For the record, it's less Desomd beating Luke and more something seems a little bit off with Luke 'at the moment'. Between the Desmond result, and rolling around with Ono, Blaze and Desmond every day, his confidence might have taken a hit. Heck if you have multiple guys in your own room you struggle to take down day after day, doubts can creep in. That is one of the hazards of training at PSU if your mind isn't crystal clear and your resolve like iron. It might take another month or two to start wrestling like the killer he is, but I think we can all admit Luke is far far better than the mediocre result in several of his recent matches.
Back to Nate. He is so damned impressive for sure, but at 137.5 lbs, he has very little chance against really really good 141s. Beau Bartlett up only one weight class was not impressive, now going up two classes? No Bueno for anyone. I don't see Mitch Messenbrink winning Nationals at 184. Probably not even 4th and we're talking a Hodge favorite.
It's admirable what Nate is doing, but Mendez might just Tech or Pin him. I am fully confident both Davis, and Nagao would handle Nate relatively easily, not to mention Ono. So that would firmly place him as our 4th best 141. Likewise all three will fare far better against Mendez, not to mention Vega, Hardy, Echemendia,.... All those guys will just toss Nate around with the extra weight and power. He would be on his heels the whole match.
I think the only chance he would have is via an emergency addition of10 lb, of 'good' weight, which is really next to impossible in a short period. He would never see 125 again and then we lose Luke's injury insurance this year. We have noone competitive behind Luke.
What Nate is getting is great experience against very solid completion to fill out his 5 dates, while helping the team in the process. What I absolutely see as a possibility next year is Nate starting 125 while Luke shirts. It makes a lot of sense with Ono at 133.
If for some reason Nagao can't recover or does only to get reinjured, I would bet the farm Davis comes out of redshirt even if it means going into Big10s with hardly any matches and rolling the dice.
I think his taking out Luke shocked all of us, especially because after another year in the room, I expected Luke to have jumped levels and be the clear #1 this year. Heck I think he was the best 125 last year, and just had an unfortunate hiccup at Nationals. Had they wrestled 3 times he would have won 2. For the record, it's less Desomd beating Luke and more something seems a little bit off with Luke 'at the moment'. Between the Desmond result, and rolling around with Ono, Blaze and Desmond every day, his confidence might have taken a hit. Heck if you have multiple guys in your own room you struggle to take down day after day, doubts can creep in. That is one of the hazards of training at PSU if your mind isn't crystal clear and your resolve like iron. It might take another month or two to start wrestling like the killer he is, but I think we can all admit Luke is far far better than the mediocre result in several of his recent matches.
Back to Nate. He is so damned impressive for sure, but at 137.5 lbs, he has very little chance against really really good 141s. Beau Bartlett up only one weight class was not impressive, now going up two classes? No Bueno for anyone. I don't see Mitch Messenbrink winning Nationals at 184. Probably not even 4th and we're talking a Hodge favorite.
It's admirable what Nate is doing, but Mendez might just Tech or Pin him. I am fully confident both Davis, and Nagao would handle Nate relatively easily, not to mention Ono. So that would firmly place him as our 4th best 141. Likewise all three will fare far better against Mendez, not to mention Vega, Hardy, Echemendia,.... All those guys will just toss Nate around with the extra weight and power. He would be on his heels the whole match.
I think the only chance he would have is via an emergency addition of10 lb, of 'good' weight, which is really next to impossible in a short period. He would never see 125 again and then we lose Luke's injury insurance this year. We have noone competitive behind Luke.
What Nate is getting is great experience against very solid completion to fill out his 5 dates, while helping the team in the process. What I absolutely see as a possibility next year is Nate starting 125 while Luke shirts. It makes a lot of sense with Ono at 133.
If for some reason Nagao can't recover or does only to get reinjured, I would bet the farm Davis comes out of redshirt even if it means going into Big10s with hardly any matches and rolling the dice.
some of Kozaks ranking are a joke,does he really think all the guys ahead of Duke and Blaze can beat them?"
what you say may be true but if he is the best choice nothing can be done we certainly don't want Nasdeo and if he beats Nagao then its him or Davis!
I could be wrong. but I've gathered from what he has written that he has to follow the Flo algorithm the way it's been done for years with rare exception. He appears to have limited agency in this enterprise.
That algorithm doesn't allow for his belief or rational thoughts to put a freshman above a higher ranked NCAA qualifier (let alone multiple time AA) until a head-to-head victory over them or a higher ranked wrestler than them that also beat them.
This alone explains a 3 loss Ayala being ranked ahead of Blaze on December 15, and why Larkin was ranked just ahead of Knox but also behind Ayala. And why a 1 loss Larkin is ahead of Blaze. Davino gets to be ahead of Ayala by virtue of his head-to-head victory over him.
A modicum of rational thought would have Blaze no lower than #4 come the next ranking, but I am guessing Ayala (and posssibly Larkin) will inexplicably still be ahead of him.
The same "logic" can be applied to PJ and 157, but that's an exercise for the reader.
Rankers would do well to remember this phrase from Ralph Waldo Emerson: “A foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds”. His point was that only small-minded men refuse to rethink their prior beliefs.
At least Kozak and JD relaxed their ridiculous absolutist rule about not counting injury defaults as a win across the board when they realized, correctly, that treating an injury default early in a 0-0 match the same as in a 3rd period match where the score is 14-3 or so when the default occurs is ludicrous. CP just can’t get there yet.
Besides the obvious faults of that rule above, there are other rankers “rules” that could probably use a bit of subjective common sense as well.
I don’t get too hung up on it and just view these early season rankings together with Willie’s Crystal Ball to get a better picture of things
At least Kozak and JD relaxed their ridiculous absolutist rule about not counting injury defaults as a win across the board when they realized, correctly, that treating an injury default early in a 0-0 match the same as in a 3rd period match where the score is 14-3 or so when the default occurs is ludicrous. CP just can’t get there yet.
Besides the obvious faults of that rule above, there are other rankers “rules” that could probably use a bit of subjective common sense as well.
I don’t get too hung up on it and just view these early season rankings together with Willie’s Crystal Ball to get a better picture of things
I just had a thought,
given
how the Flo ranking algorithm is constructed AND assuming it's widely known and true that many coaches rankings had simply copied them
then it stands to reason that
the Flo algorithm is a direct contributor to the ducking phenomena that is the bane of growing wrestling, but that also creates social media content for Flo.
Therefore, Flo suffers from a conflict of interest. To eliminate this, the NCAA should consider a bylaw that bans the use of Flo rankings in any NCAA telecast (TV or Streaming) or member school program. Such action would be taken in the interest of improving the competition to help grow the sport.
given
how the Flo ranking algorithm is constructed AND assuming it's widely known and true that many coaches rankings had simply copied them
then it stands to reason that
the Flo algorithm is a direct contributor to the ducking phenomena that is the bane of growing wrestling, but that also creates social media content for Flo.
Therefore, Flo suffers from a conflict of interest. To eliminate this, the NCAA should consider a bylaw that bans the use of Flo rankings in any NCAA telecast (TV or Streaming) or member school program. Such action would be taken in the interest of improving the competition to help grow the sport.
No he doesn’t and has said as much over and over again…
Big 10 uses intermat rankings on broadcasts. And the system has changed now it's not 14 coaches voting. The old system was I will vote your guy 16-20 if you vote my guy X . No one can tell a coach what he can and can't look at . The Flo and intermat rankings were used as a guide for coaches. If you coach in the Big 12 and are out west how would you know how good a EIWA kid is. They have jobs to do and that job isn't to be worried about other guys results. Now with a committee and only a few coaches voting each weight it will make for less of a good ole boy network
Yes, some prefer intermat, including their school programs.
But do you know of the coaches, which as grouped to weight classes, use Flo as their baseline for arguing?
And can you recognize a tongue-in-cheek post? I know Flo isn't entirely responsible for ducking. And coaches ranking is only one of the NCAA seeding criteria.
On the next round of dogpiling I’d like to ask a favor..
‘please don’t let Corby dogpile on top of me, his “keys” keep poking me in the back.
No and yes and I wasnt talking about ducking at all in my post. It's 10% of the equation so not as significant as people think
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'if he beats Nagao," - supposition
"then it's him or Davis." - conclusion based on that supposition.
wasn't*?
I don't know about the 10% part. I would have to see a statistical analysis, as it (ducking) mathematically affects Win percentage, RPI, and may influence a variable percentage of Flo ranking informed coaches' rankings.
Yes wasn't. And it's all public knowledge you can go read it yourself. Coaches rankings are 10%
Right, but I am talking about ducking, which coaches decide to do, and its influence on seeding, which includes some amount of the 10% coaches' ranking part.
Remember, you replied to me. I thought your reply was intended to be responsive. Now I understand it was tangential.
Head to head is 25 % so beating a guy holds way more value. Kids get dinged up in practice and March is what matters so being healthy then is the priority. Fans call every missed match a duck with no knowledge of the situation
But what about the equivalent of Mexican standoffs?
Yes, I understand h-2-h by itself is more. You are proving my point, as ducking also undermines h-2-h. I should've included that earlier too.
Why didn't Ty Watters wrestle Robideaux?
Go watch his match Friday against UNC and you will have that answer he won by a few and got dinged up. Social media has made the "ducking" look worse then it is. Guys get dinged up and some have scheduled breaks as well. We won't see Zerban today and people will say duck when he MFF in CKLV finals
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Ducking also denies a wrestler Quality Wins, which affects seeding across the bracket -- as opposed to H2H which only affects seeding against one opponent.
Also: are we still sideswiping Tim Flynn of all people?
Ok, as being healthy come March is paramount. Protecting his current #1 ranking, h-2-h, and win %, while negatively impacting Robideaux's h-2-h, win.%, and RPI--in what was to be a certain dual blowout--couldn't possibly have factored in.
It's not an indictment of any particular coach, just of the system. Many are gaming the seeding metrics. I only used Watters as an exemplar given his #1 ranking and recency.
You’re prob right, but I’d need to see it play out. Was Haines too undersized last year to AA at 174? Barr for 197? We’ve seen guys wrestle at or above their full feed weights before and wrestle at a high level. Again, not saying this is another case, but I’d need to see it play out to rule it out.
But Flo also has RFR Ferrari and Sinclair, neither of whom have wrestled a full season or postseason, ranked ahead of our returning national finalist at 184. Blaze and Duke have had to earn their way up the rankings by first beating everyone else who has been there and done that but then the same hasn’t been applied to 184. It’s inconsistent. And okay to opine on. What’s the point of rankings if you can’t discuss them?
She once flew all the way to Vietnam to dance for me
Well, Flo will say Ferrari and Sinclair had quality D1 wins last year against quality opponents. Flo includes redshirt D1 results just like they include exhniition match results. They basically use all D1 results including against teammates that are folkstyle and follow D1 rules.
Didn't Blaze get some credit for college open D1 wins in his initial ranking?
I just don't know how Flo treats ducks. Blaze may or may not have an opportunity to beat both Ayala and Davino. Theoretically both could duck, and then they both could end up on the same side of the B1G tournament bracket.
But it all doesn't matter. Win the B1G tournament as an undefeated wrestler with 15 matches and both Blaze and Duke will be seeded 1 or 2 at NCAAs.
Sinclair beat McEnelly this year.
Ferrari beat Sinclair this year.
Flo applies the transitive property regularly.
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For everybody who is arguing Desmond is too light for 141 because 141 pounders are walking around at 150 to 160.
Except for Saturday night championships that held weigh-ins 10 or more hours prior, people weighed in an hour before wrestling started.
We are talking a 137 pounder wrestling a 144 pounder. Not perfect, but not impractical either.
With that all said, Desmond has two more matches before anybody needs to worry about decisions. Southern Scuffle and Rutgers if needed. Nagao is most likely ready to go against Rutgers. The staff has seen what a contest between Nagao and Davis looks like and they went with Nagao. For several weeks they have probably seen several goes between Davis and Desmond.
The folks on here arguing a smallish true freshman is the best option at 141 may be right, but only by accident. They have no idea who is or isn't our best option. By January 16th we will know who the staff believes is the best option.
Except for Saturday night championships that held weigh-ins 10 or more hours prior, people weighed in an hour before wrestling started.
We are talking a 137 pounder wrestling a 144 pounder. Not perfect, but not impractical either.
With that all said, Desmond has two more matches before anybody needs to worry about decisions. Southern Scuffle and Rutgers if needed. Nagao is most likely ready to go against Rutgers. The staff has seen what a contest between Nagao and Davis looks like and they went with Nagao. For several weeks they have probably seen several goes between Davis and Desmond.
The folks on here arguing a smallish true freshman is the best option at 141 may be right, but only by accident. They have no idea who is or isn't our best option. By January 16th we will know who the staff believes is the best option.
Welsh is a returning finalist. McEnelly is not. Sinclair is not. None of them have beaten Welsh. Freshman in their first varsity season should have to beat an undefeated returning finalist before being ranked ahead of him if Flo is applying their algorithm consistently.
Yeah, we know . However imo they are incomplete designed to be click bait to generate Internet traffic not to put out actual up-to-date rankings.
Bingo, our rankings are in accurate but they're accurate because we're going by this data and will change as we get more information.
OK then, why not try to make them more accurate from the beginning? They do it in other ratings such as football AP rankings.
Again it's all a bunch of horseshit because they want to generate Internet clicks that's how they make money.
My bad, thanks.
McEnelly was the highest 2025 returning place finisher at 184lb. Flo appears to base initial rankings on prior year finish at weight class. The rest of my explanation stands
Welsh is a prior, rather than a returning finalist, at the lower weight of 174lb. He had no D1 matches at 184lb. That may have played into the initial ranking.
When Nickal and Carter bumped up, I don't know where they were initially ranked by Flo. But both were returning champs and neither took an interleaving RS year. So that RS year could factor in.
Although a 5th vs 2nd, Zain would be a good comparable depending on how many high AAs at 149 returned in 2016. He took an interleaving RS and bumped up a weight.
Mind you, I am not defending the Flo algorithm, but simply trying to understand it.
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Every one can use their own definitions. For me, Rocco is a returning finalist. His most recent and only non-redshirt season ended with him in the final. For me, using “prior” instead of “returning” means a lower finish since, which isn’t the case with Rocco.
Regardless of how one sees it vs another, I’m guessing it’s the only weight where two freshman are ranked ahead of an undefeated wrestler who was a finalist in their most recent varsity season.