Places we want to avoid

[615dawg]

The 16 host sites are determined. We will not be hosting.

They are:

UCLA
Florida State
Florida
North Carolina
Baylor
LSU
Oregon
South Carolina
NC State
Stanford
Virginia
Miami
Arizona
Purdue
Rice
Kentucky

We can't go to the SEC sites, so that leaves 12 possibilities.

We do not want to go to:
Florida State - Best team in the nation. Solid pitching, solid hitting. Its tough to see anyone other than the Noles coming out of FSU.
NC State - They have two pitchers with a sub .200/OBA. Saving Stratton or naught, that doesn't bode well for us.
Any Pac 12 site - A solid team that would be tough to beat after 5 or 6 games in as many days and a trip across the country.

So that leaves five sites: Baylor, Rice, Purdue, North Carolina, Virginia, Miami.

In order of preference:
Purdue - I just don't think they are as good as their record indicates, and they have started to fall lately.
Rice - Not as good as they have been in the past. A somewhat poor performance in Pearl this week as well. Oklahoma is probably the #2 seed here anyhow.
Miami - A hot team like us. Could win the ACC Tournament.
Virginia - Wouldn't have wanted to go up there in the past, but they aren't scary this year.
Baylor - I don't think we get a Texas regional because of the sheer number of teams in the geographic area.
North Carolina - They are a solid team, I'd rather go here than Raliegh, even though UNC is a national seed. Probably matched up with Virginia in the Super.

ETA: Purdue instead of A&M. Miami played their way into the #16.

 

[benatmsu]

*

 

[The Eternal Goat]

nm

 

[QuaoarsKing]

I can't remember them ever matching up 1 seeds from the same conference. Intraconference Supers only happen when one or both teams won the regional in an upset.

 

[sleepy dawg]

Where did you get this information?

 

[The Eternal Goat]

nm

 

[Maroon Eagle]

Better to avoid, not avoid, or what?

 

[Coach34]

.

 

[8dog]

I think it was a typo from 615. Purdue should be in that slot

 

[JxnDawg39211]

Other than that looks good IMO

 

[615dawg]

Working with two Excel sheets and screwed up.

I think Miami played themselves into a regional and A&M lost it with their tank in the Big 12. Five hosts for the ACC. Its going to come down to Miami, Mississippi State and Fullerton for the final regional.

Miami - RPI 9, SOS 3, 7-3 Last 10, makes ACC Championship vs. Georgia Tech with UNC win over NC State today
Mississippi State - RPI 19, SOS 9, 7-3 Last 10, makes SEC Championship with 8 more outs
Cal State Fullerton - RPI 21, SOS 25, 6-4 Last 10 (Best Record of 3), wins Big West Championship with one more win over the Beach

The other 15 slots are filled.

 

[615dawg]

but essentially I did make it up. I personally think Miami sealed #16 and A&M is out. That's the only one up for debate - I think its Miami, especially if UNC beats NC State tonight.

 

[QuaoarsKing]

The committee doesn't want to give 5 hosts to any conference, and they like giving non-Southern teams a chance.<div>
</div><div>Also, the Pac-12 hosts will all be matched up with an Eastern regional if they can't give one to Fullerton.</div>

 

[615dawg]

All the analysis in the world can't really predict what 10 people in a room in Indianapolis will do.

Miami has the best resume for that 16th host spot, followed by Fullerton, followed by A&M, followed by us. I just think its too much to jump three teams, although I think we may have jumped A&M, especially with a natural site for A&M in Rice. That does enter your mind as you think through it.

If Miami gets to the ACC Championship Game, it will be hard to deny them, and we could end up playing in Coral Gables again. UCF could head there, but hopefully they go to FSU. If UCF ends up in Gainesville or Miami, I'm going to be nervous.

 

[Maroon Eagle]

If there are five regionals in the West (which I doubt very seriously), Fullerton will likely be matched with either UCLA or Oregon. Arizona's not a national seed & Purdue won't be either. Stanford is a borderline national seed so I'll say Stanford versus Arizona, Fullerton vs. UCLA, & Oregon vs. Purdue.

 

[615dawg]

Either the SEC is getting five, the ACC is getting five, or the West Coast (+Zona) is getting five

 

[Coach34]

you arent some lawyer or pizza parlor manager trying to make a guess.

 

[615dawg]

so I don't know. Just my opinion that Miami had earned the host.