Players Not Collins Lost That One

[PurpleWhiteBoy]

Our current players definitely do not suck.
We have had plenty of teams that didn't suck.

Why take such a negative view?

I get that people are tired of losing. But any honest fan knows we should be 5-4 in the conference, not 2-7.

 

[NUCat320]

Our current players definitely do not suck.
We have had plenty of teams that didn't suck.

Why take such a negative view?

I get that people are tired of losing. But any honest fan knows we should be 5-4 in the conference, not 2-7.

It’s a fine point of view. And it’s fine to blame Collins for the final four minutes of last night’s game if you like. But you’d be wrong.

The game was there for the taking. Michigan’s two post starters were out of the game. NU had a seven point lead with five minutes left, and did not make a shot for the next four minutes. Miss, turnover, miss, missed front-end, two free throws, 1 for 2 free throws, miss.

As NU was doing that, NU was allowing 4-4 FGs, including 3 threes, and watching Michigan go 4 for 4 from the line.

NU had the right guys in, Michigan was down two starters, and Michigan executed while NU didn’t.

During that time, NU’s players failed to take advantage of a great opportunity. They sucked.

 

[SDakaGordie]

I saw your comments on progression. There was for the year prior to and the NCAA year. Otherwise, we are probably in a worse location within the league than before CC arrived. There is not a McIntosh, Law, Demps, Crawford, Shurna, Coble, Juice Thompson, Reggie Hearn or Craig Moore on this team. In other words, there is not a single go to player to will this team to a win or night in night out will take and more often than not, make the tough shot. None of the aforementioned players had those skills/traits when they entered (Juice and McIntosh had it to some extent), but they developed that instinct or toughness over their years. In other words, they progressed. You write about the ballyhooed recruiting which shows progression to be a "go to" guy at the end of the game. Please tell me which player is that guy? It has not occurred. Thus, you may have progression in recruiting, but you have no progression in player development which entails both skills and toughness. It's just not there. All the close losses are prime exhibits of the lack of progression within the program. The won loss records is a very objective standard. Again, there is no progression. I hope at the end of year I am eating crow, but we can lead you to water, but if you refuse to drink, there is nothing we can do to remedy your confusion. You can't look and not see.

The post I made on progress compares SRS under Carmody vs. Collins, and it said Collins’ teams perform about 3 points better per game. That’s meaningfully better - the definition of progress. It’s bottom-line info, as some folks are only inclined to review. Tell me what you dispute about that and why you think I am “confused” or don’t “see”. Without this (or maybe even still), I’ll have to place you in the club of those who just choose to demean.

 

[catfans5]

You talk about progress, but look at the table below. There is the saying, lies, lies and statistics. The only meaningful statistic is wins and losses. These are objective metrics. See the light!

-9)
2	2020-21	Big Ten	9	15	.375	6	13	.316	9.71	11.76	70.3	70.0		19				Chris Collins (9-15)
3	2019-20	Big Ten	8	23	.258	3	17	.150	5.35	10.51	64.9	70.1						Chris Collins (8-23)
4	2018-19	Big Ten	13	19	.406	4	16	.200	9.97	9.16	65.9	65.1						Chris Collins (13-19)
5	2017-18	Big Ten	15	17	.469	6	12	.333	9.63	8.37	68.8	66.5	19	19				Chris Collins (15-17)
6	2016-17	Big Ten	24	12	.667	10	8	.556	14.02	8.43	71.1	65.5		25		Lost Second Round	8	Chris Collins (24-12)
7	2015-16	Big Ten	20	12	.625	8	10	.444	10.16	4.12	72.0	66.0						Chris Collins (20-12)
8	2014-15	Big Ten	15	17	.469	6	12	.333	6.11	7.20	63.5	64.6						Chris Collins (15-17)
9	2013-14	Big Ten	14	19	.424	6	12	.333	4.72	8.57	59.5	63.4						Chris Collins (14-19)

 

[IdahoAlum]

Can you give me a soundbite that goes something like this...

"Roper throws up a prayer... HORN SOUNDS.... Its GOOOOOD!!!!!! Wildcats WIN!!!!!!!"
Wish I could.
I'm getting desperate.

 

[SDakaGordie]

You talk about progress, but look at the table below. There is the saying, lies, lies and statistics. The only meaningful statistic is wins and losses. These are objective metrics. See the light!

-9)
2	2020-21	Big Ten	9	15	.375	6	13	.316	9.71	11.76	70.3	70.0		19				Chris Collins (9-15)
3	2019-20	Big Ten	8	23	.258	3	17	.150	5.35	10.51	64.9	70.1						Chris Collins (8-23)
4	2018-19	Big Ten	13	19	.406	4	16	.200	9.97	9.16	65.9	65.1						Chris Collins (13-19)
5	2017-18	Big Ten	15	17	.469	6	12	.333	9.63	8.37	68.8	66.5	19	19				Chris Collins (15-17)
6	2016-17	Big Ten	24	12	.667	10	8	.556	14.02	8.43	71.1	65.5		25		Lost Second Round	8	Chris Collins (24-12)
7	2015-16	Big Ten	20	12	.625	8	10	.444	10.16	4.12	72.0	66.0						Chris Collins (20-12)
8	2014-15	Big Ten	15	17	.469	6	12	.333	6.11	7.20	63.5	64.6						Chris Collins (15-17)
9	2013-14	Big Ten	14	19	.424	6	12	.333	4.72	8.57	59.5	63.4						Chris Collins (14-19)

I tried to go beyond the obvious (W/L) and look for some deeper trends, but some folks just don’t want to go there.

 

[NUCat320]

I tried to go beyond the obvious (W/L) and look for some deeper trends, but some folks just don’t want to go there.

You wrote ‘the season is not over.’

I asked what goals are still attainable. What goals are still attainable?

 

[SDakaGordie]

You wrote ‘the season is not over.’

I asked what goals are still attainable. What goals are still attainable?

Sorry I did not reply. If you look at the next 11 games, it’s realistic to think we have a decent chance to win 8 of them. Not highly likely, of course, but that would achieve all goals.

 

[catfans5]

I tried to go beyond the obvious (W/L) and look for some deeper trends, but some folks just don’t want to go there.

I know your point is that the Cats average 3 more points per game as compared to under Carmody's tutelage as a sign of progress. There has been a complete change in the game of basketball with the emphasis on three point shooting. Carmody's emphasis on limiting possessions and slowing the game would lead to lower scoring output. I discount that metric you employ as a valuable measurement.

I will report from the Illannoy game.

 

[SDakaGordie]

I know your point is that the Cats average 3 more points per game as compared to under Carmody's tutelage as a sign of progress. There has been a complete change in the game of basketball with the emphasis on three point shooting. Carmody's emphasis on limiting possessions and slowing the game would lead to lower scoring output. I discount that metric you employ as a valuable measurement.

I will report from the Illannoy game.

Because you misinterpreted it badly! Go read what I wrote. It’s not 3 points more per game - sheesh!

 

[catfans5]

Because you misinterpreted it badly! Go read what I wrote. It’s not 3 points more per game - sheesh!

I asked you to look at the objective win loss records to show any progression, but you can't, You just pick out selective minutiae which mean nothing. This is why I never responded to it. You spent a lot of time on nothing that matters. It comes down to wins and losses. This is the only metric that matters.

I will keep it simple. The team that scores the most points wins. This is why they keep score, Keeping it close or moral victories mean squat. It is still a loss. The team that wins celebrates. The losers fume. The teams with the most wins go to the NCAA or NIT tourneys. Those that don't win enough stay home and watch. As a coach, you don't win, you are done.

 

[SDakaGordie]

I asked you to look at the objective win loss records to show any progression, but you can't, You just pick out selective minutiae which mean nothing. This is why I never responded to it. You spent a lot of time on nothing that matters. It comes down to wins and losses. This is the only metric that matters.

I will keep it simple. The team that scores the most points wins. This is why they keep score, Keeping it close or moral victories mean squat. It is still a loss. The team that wins celebrates. The losers fume. The teams with the most wins go to the NCAA or NIT tourneys. Those that don't win enough stay home and watch. As a coach, you don't win, you are done.

If we keep it this simple, it gets very boring and uninformative. You still don’t understand the metric I used, and now choose to ignore it. Hard to work more with that.

 

[PurpleWhiteBoy]

It’s a fine point of view. And it’s fine to blame Collins for the final four minutes of last night’s game if you like. But you’d be wrong.

The game was there for the taking. Michigan’s two post starters were out of the game. NU had a seven point lead with five minutes left, and did not make a shot for the next four minutes. Miss, turnover, miss, missed front-end, two free throws, 1 for 2 free throws, miss.

As NU was doing that, NU was allowing 4-4 FGs, including 3 threes, and watching Michigan go 4 for 4 from the line.

NU had the right guys in, Michigan was down two starters, and Michigan executed while NU didn’t.

During that time, NU’s players failed to take advantage of a great opportunity. They sucked.

There is no basis to say "NU had the right guys in."
The reason we lost is specifically because Collins had the wrong guys in and they failed to execute.
If you want to give up a crucial 3 pointer, put Beran in the game and watch him leave his man alone outside the arc.
If you want to create a mismatch for your opponent, park Young on the bench and put 6'7" Elyjah Williams on 7'1" Hunter Dickinson. Nicholson was the obvious alternative to Young. Williams was a really bad choice.

Beyond that, we have seen plenty of proof that Beran/Nance/Audige struggle when the game is on the line. I'll have to go look at Buie and Greer in late game situations.

 

[PurpleWhiteBoy]

If we keep it this simple, it gets very boring and uninformative. You still don’t understand the metric I used, and now choose to ignore it. Hard to work more with that.

Gordie:

I don't know what stat/metric you are referring to (SRS).
Can you define it? I didn't see your original post when I looked back up this thread.

 

[SDakaGordie]

Gordie:

I don't know what stat/metric you are referring to (SRS).
Can you define it? I didn't see your original post when I looked back up this thread.

Here you go below, assuming my copying worked. Hit the Glossary for the SRS definition. It’s essentially point differential adjusted for strength of schedule. One thing new I noticed - Collins has 6 of the highest 10 SRS ratings in NU history.

https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/schools/northwestern/

 

[hoosboot]

Gordie:

I don't know what stat/metric you are referring to (SRS).
Can you define it? I didn't see your original post when I looked back up this thread.

This link has a good primer on SRS. It's a solid metric based on pretty simple variables, but has its flaws like any other metric. From the link:

"The key benefit of this system is that it is both interpretable and easy to estimate. Because of this, it is a common tool used in sports reporting, like in some of the articles by 538.

That being said, there is no such thing as a free lunch, and the SRS’s simplicity is not without drawbacks. Namely, it ignores wins/losses, is slightly biased to offensive-oriented and faster pace teams where larger victories are more common, and it weights all games in a schedule equally."

 

[catfans5]

If we keep it this simple, it gets very boring and uninformative. You still don’t understand the metric I used, and now choose to ignore it. Hard to work more with that.

I do. I appreciate and respect your posts and position.

 

[SDakaGordie]

Ok thanks

 

[PurpleWhiteBoy]

Here you go below, assuming my copying worked. Hit the Glossary for the SRS definition. It’s essentially point differential adjusted for strength of schedule. One thing new I noticed - Collins has 6 of the highest 10 SRS ratings in NU history.

https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/schools/northwestern/

Hey Gordie, thanks for posting that.

Since SRS uses "Strength of Schedule" and point margins, I figured I would just look at Jeff Sagarin's ratings, which are very easy to understand and (in my opinion) the benchmark for rating teams.

Here's NU over the years...

Season	Rank	Rating	Top 50 Wins	Top 50 Losses	SRS
2020-21	74	79.53	4	13	9.71
2019-20	?	?	?	?	5.35
2018-19	75	78.94	2	15	9.97
2017-18	70	80.21	2	11	9.63
2016-17	38	83.60	7	10	14.02
2015-16	66	80.37	1	9	10.16
2014-15	96	78.91	2	11	6.11
2013-14	128	75.13	3	11	4.72
2012-13	125	75.64	3	13	5.36
2011-12	67	80.43	2	13	8.87
2010-11	50	82.62	2	12	11.66
2009-10	76	79.17	3	9	8.32
2008-09	59	81.43	6	11	8.56
2007-08	190	70.28	0	11	-1.3
2006-07	143	73.38	1	9	4.92

I can't find the Sagarin numbers for 2019-20, probably one of our worst under Collins.

I would say our teams are just slightly better under Collins?
Depends how far back you want to go, but arguably Carmody got NU to a certain NIT type level and Collins has not raised the bar from there (other than the one year of course).
Or maybe Collins raised the bar and then we fell back to the Carmody level.