Players potential scoring averages for Duke and UNC 2016-17

[gottagonow]

Just thinking about our rivalry and wondering where our and UNC's points might come from this coming season. IMO here's what teams players could average this upcoming season. Its hard to imagine that with players like Giles, Tatum, Bolden or Jackson could only average 10 or 11 pts a game but we have so much talent to spread around. I know there are many variables in team scoring but just food for thought.

What might other think?


UNC

Berry 13
Jackson 11
Pinson 7
Meeks 11
Hicks 12
Britt 5
Woods 5
Bradley 5
Robinson 3
White 2
Maye 4
Williams 3
Others 1

Total 82


Duke

Allen 16
Jefferson 9
Jones 5
Kennard 9
Tatum 10
Delaurie 2
Jackson 10
Giles 12
Bolden 10
Jeter 5
White 1
Delaurie 3
Robinson 1
Varank 1
Obi 1

Total 95

 

[gottagonow]

I agree it seems very high and hard to imagine but when you look at the players and their scoring potential it adds up.

 

[DiehardDukeFan4Life]

I think 95 ppg could be possible during the OOC part of the schedule but once the ACC part of the schedule starts then I believe that average would more than likely drop to probably somewhere around 85-90 ppg at the most.

 

[Anon1728003274]

Looks good but Gotta don't you think "Big Luke" is a "double digits guy?" lol

OFC

 

[gottagonow]

Looks good but Gotta don't you think "Big Luke" is a "double digits guy?" lol

OFC

Ha Ha, I thought about him long and hard but he only averaged 1.2 ppg and .2 rebounds last season. He could blow up and get that to 1.6 and .4 you know.

 

[pisgah101]

UNC

Berry 15
Jackson 11
Pinson 6
Meeks 11
Hicks 15
Britt 5
Woods 8
Bradley 5
Robinson 3
White 1
Maye 3
Williams 3
Others 1

Total 86


Duke

Allen 25
Jefferson 10
Jones 5
Kennard 12
Tatum 12
Delaurie .5
Jackson 12
Giles 18
Bolden 5
Jeter 3
White .5
Robinson .2
Varank .2
Obi .2

Total 103 hahaha

 

[dukehokie]

Tatum will average more than 16 a game and we'll need him to. Gray will be close to 20 and Amile and Harry should be around 12 with some exceptional games. Everything else is a crap shoot.

 

[dukiejay]

Grayson around 18, maybe 19. Tatum about 15. The others to average double figures will be Luke, Giles and maybe Amile....but none of those three score more than 12. I don't count Obi, Vrank, White and JRob because 1) they won't factor in and 2) they'll play in less than half of the games. Javin scores 2-3 per game. Everyone else in that five to eight or nine range.

As for UNC their two leading scorers will be Berry and Jackson. Berry about 15 or 16 and Jackson a point or two less. Hicks then probably 12 or so and Meeks around 10.

 

[gottagonow]

Tatum will average more than 16 a game and we'll need him to. Gray will be close to 20 and Amile and Harry should be around 12 with some exceptional games. Everything else is a crap shoot.

Tatum will average more than 16 a game and we'll need him to. Gray will be close to 20 and Amile and Harry should be around 12 with some exceptional games. Everything else is a crap shoot.

Thats 60 points right there in those 4 guys. See the difficulity (or luxury) in less that 95 points or so?

 

[HuffyJB]

I think Duke will average at least 82 points per game, and UNC will average around 50. 82 and 50 - yeah, that sounds right.

 

[SwaggerJacker]

What blows me away is the way last years team and this years team are polar opposites. We will/could have 4-5 legitimate scorers on the floor most of the time. Rebounding should improve greatly, and we are shamefully deep. A cold night shooting from someone wont be a death knell. I've no idea what the percentages will be like. We will get buckets; and lots of them!

 

[Dattier]

Grayson around 18, maybe 19. Tatum about 15. The others to average double figures will be Luke, Giles and maybe Amile....but none of those three score more than 12. I don't count Obi, Vrank, White and JRob because 1) they won't factor in and 2) they'll play in less than half of the games. Javin scores 2-3 per game. Everyone else in that five to eight or nine range.

This is as close to what I think as anything. Grayson can score more, but if he does, it's a sign that we needed him to, and that other guys weren't better. A dip in his scoring will be a positive sign for the team. Matt's scoring will drop far more drastically, and that will also be a positive sign for the team, for the same reason. No more than 12 is a conservative guess for Harry based on his not being fully healed... and I'd go conservative on that prediction, too. I think Luke stands to be the one who overachieves on that prediction, though. He was explosive by the end of last season, and I think he'll show more of that throughout the season this year.

We should remember that Amile's double-double average last year was during the weaker part of our schedule. It was unlikely to stay there. And that was with him and Marshall both starting, one of them always being on the court, and with Brandon not yet a reliable go-to guy. It remains to be seen whether any of this year's freshmen will match what we ultimately came to expect from Brandon, but Harry, Jason, and maybe even Frank stand to be more ready from the beginning. Amile will give us some big games and clutch moments, but our talent is such that he won't have to assert himself as much as his abbreviated stat line last year implies.

On the bold, a key thing I haven't seen anyone else address is that your ppg are based on the games you play in, so a guy who scores 12 points in 4 games averages 3.0, but he doesn't count +3.0 toward the team average. If we play 40 games, he would count just 0.3 toward the team average.

 

[dukehokie]

Thats 60 points right there in those 4 guys. See the difficulity (or luxury) in less that 95 points or so?

Hey I never said anything about 95. Haha. I'd love it. But I'm thinking we only will have about 4 guys who regularly score. With 3 out of potentially 4 guys off the bench possibly scoring from there. It's a good bet Luke will be close to 10 a game. Now we're at 70. If we can get at least 15 from everyone else on the team, we're in good shape.

 

[twdukefan]

Realistically speaking I think the team could average between 85-88 ppg, but not sure how they would get there exactly

 

[DukeDenver]

I think a lot depends on how K runs the offense. What will the sets be?

 

[dukedevilz]

Some guys will play less than half the games - so it won't significantly alter the scoring total even if they average 1-2 ppg.

Duke
Grayson Allen 18.3
Jayson Tatum 15.2
Harry Giles 14.1
Frank Jackson 10.7
Luke Kennard 9.1
Marques Bolden 7.9
Amile Jefferson 7.3
Matt Jones 5.6
Chase Jeter 2.5
Total: around 91 PPG

UNC:
Joel Berry 16.5
Justin Jackson 14.3
Isaiah Hicks 11.7
Kennedy Meeks 11.2
Nate Britt 8.0
Theo Pinson 7.1
Tony Bradley 6.4
Kenny Williams 2.9
Seventh Woods 2.5
Luke Maye 1.7
Brandon Robinson 1.4
Total: around 83 PPG

 

[dukedevilz]

I think our top scorer will have more than 16 pts per game. There always seems to be a go to guy. I'm also not sure the next highest will only be 12.

95 points per game seems awfully high. When was the last time a team did that?

VMI averaged 100.9 ppg in 2007. They were consistently over 90ppg, but 2007 was the only time they averaged more than 95.

 

[HuffyJB]

Some guys will play less than half the games - so it won't significantly alter the scoring total even if they average 1-2 ppg.

Duke
Grayson Allen 18.3
Jayson Tatum 15.2
Harry Giles 14.1
Frank Jackson 10.7
Luke Kennard 9.1
Marques Bolden 7.9
Amile Jefferson 7.3
Matt Jones 5.6
Chase Jeter 2.5
Total: around 91 PPG

UNC:
Joel Berry 16.5
Justin Jackson 14.3
Isaiah Hicks 11.7
Kennedy Meeks 11.2
Nate Britt 8.0
Theo Pinson 7.1
Tony Bradley 6.4
Kenny Williams 2.9
Seventh Woods 2.5
Luke Maye 1.7
Brandon Robinson 1.4
Total: around 83 PPG

I think that's pretty solid. I think Kennard will be in double figures and Jackson won't be. And Jones is interesting. I think his scoring will drop from last year's double figure average , bit will it drop all the way to 5?

 

[peterjurkinsquirtsroywilliams]

Duke
Grayson Allen 18.3
Jayson Tatum 15.2
Harry Giles 14.1
Frank Jackson 10.7
Luke Kennard 9.1
Marques Bolden 7.9
Amile Jefferson 7.3
Matt Jones 5.6
Chase Jeter 2.5
Total: around 91 PPG

UNC:
Joel Berry 16.5
Justin Jackson 14.3
Isaiah Hicks 11.7
Kennedy Meeks 11.2
Nate Britt 8.0
Theo Pinson 7.1
Tony Bradley 6.4
Kenny Williams 2.9
Seventh Woods 2.5
Luke Maye 30.8
Brandon Robinson 1.4
Total: around 112.8PPG

 

[dukedevilz]

Yeah, I wouldn't be surprised to see Jones score a bit more. I was having a hard time cutting the averages down to a reasonable number. This is under the assumption that Jones essentially becomes the 3rd man off the bench, behind both Kennard and Jackson in minutes. But seeing how Jones started in the 2015 NCAA Tournament, I don't think it would be shocking to see him get 25 minutes which could easily lead to 8+ ppg. Just not really sure how K is going to divide the minutes. Jones is going to have a lot of wide-open looks this year, and that alone should help his scoring production. We've got scorers in every direction - not sure how the scoring distribution is all going to pan out, but I'm fairly confident in our ability as a team to score around 90 ppg.

 

[dukehokie]

Duke
Grayson Allen 18.3
Jayson Tatum 15.2
Harry Giles 14.1
Frank Jackson 10.7
Luke Kennard 9.1
Marques Bolden 7.9
Amile Jefferson 7.3
Matt Jones 5.6
Chase Jeter 2.5
Total: around 91 PPG

UNC:
Joel Berry 16.5
Justin Jackson 14.3
Isaiah Hicks 11.7
Kennedy Meeks 11.2
Nate Britt 8.0
Theo Pinson 7.1
Tony Bradley 6.4
Kenny Williams 2.9
Seventh Woods 2.5
Luke Maye 30.8
Brandon Robinson 1.4
Total: around 112.8PPG

I could see Matt scoring a few more and Marques scoring a few less. He won't be going pro based off of his scoring if he is indeed going to be OAD. Much like our Luke discussion last season, he should be first big off the bench but 4th option at best in most lineups he'd be a part of. I think he's a fringe lottery pick right now, but with another year where he'd be lead post scorer, could be a top 5 talent with his size and potential.

Also I'm pinning this thread when it slows down so we can look back next season and laugh at ourselves for being wrong. Namely me haha.

 

[Anon1728003274]

Duke
Grayson Allen 18.3
Jayson Tatum 15.2
Harry Giles 14.1
Frank Jackson 10.7
Luke Kennard 9.1
Marques Bolden 7.9
Amile Jefferson 7.3
Matt Jones 5.6
Chase Jeter 2.5
Total: around 91 PPG

UNC:
Joel Berry 16.5
Justin Jackson 14.3
Isaiah Hicks 11.7
Kennedy Meeks 11.2
Nate Britt 8.0
Theo Pinson 7.1
Tony Bradley 6.4
Kenny Williams 2.9
Seventh Woods 2.5
Luke Maye 30.8
Brandon Robinson 1.4
Total: around 112.8PPG

Peter does "Big Luke" JUSTICE!!!

OFC

 

[dopeshop23]

I feel like something weird will happen...one guy averaging 15-16 another 12-13 and 5 or 6 guys averaging right at 9-10. Lots of rotations, wearing and blowing a lot of people out in the first 10-15 minutes, leading to more reserve min. than expected and fresher legs. Kind of a reboot of 92 and 99.

 

[DukeDenver]

I just want there to be multiple guys averaging decent assists numbers: Jackson, Allen, Luke and Matt could all be over 2.0 APG, with hopefully one emerging as the natural passer (Luke maybe?). Tatum, Amile and Harry could get close to that average too. If this team can share the rock efficiently, we will be unstoppable. It's all about knowing where the advantage is and attacking right away. You have to move the ball to create the right situation. It's fine to go one on one when you know you can take your man or draw a second man. I hope we play with eyes wide open.

I love this lineup for the last 8 minutes (stats predicted):
Luke (8p, 3r, 4a)
Frank (12p, 2r, 1.5a)
Grayson (18p, 3r, 3a)
Tatum (10p, 5r, 2.5a)
Harry (12p, 9r, 1.5a)

 

[dbav]

I think Duke will average at least 82 points per game, and UNC will average around 50. 82 and 50 - yeah, that sounds right.

Dammit, I was gonna post that total averages would be in the 82-50 range.

 

[Dukesince90]

With the shooters we have, I see Amile playing the role of defense for offense if the game is close late.

 

[topps coach]

Duke
Grayson Allen 18.3
Jayson Tatum 15.2
Harry Giles 14.1
Frank Jackson 10.7
Luke Kennard 9.1
Marques Bolden 7.9
Amile Jefferson 7.3
Matt Jones 5.6
Chase Jeter 2.5
Total: around 91 PPG

UNC:
Joel Berry 16.5
Justin Jackson 14.3
Isaiah Hicks 11.7
Kennedy Meeks 11.2
Nate Britt 8.0
Theo Pinson 7.1
Tony Bradley 6.4
Kenny Williams 2.9
Seventh Woods 2.5
Luke Maye 30.8
Brandon Robinson 1.4
Total: around 112.8PPG

How can you downplay a talent like Big Luke.Are you a hater

 

[Zachdeer1]

Grayson Allen :19.2
Jayson tatum:14.6
Harry Giles:12.3
Luke:10.9
Frank :8.9
Amile:9.1
Marques: 7.5
Matt:5.2
Chase:4.9

I think 87-89 will be avarge ppg

 

[Showenuff]

It's gonna vary a lot game by game for top scorer. I think Giles and Grayson will be back and forth as top scorer scattered in a few times here and there as Tatum top scorer. It's really blowing my mind the different options K will have with this group. K is gonna KILL some teams with this team. I think our height is perfect, our defense is going to be WAY better and scoring can come from all over. Grayson isn't going to fade , even with this high powered unit. God. Our fast breaks are going to be glorious.

 

[skysdad]

I think Coach K should play 10 guys and once they score 10 or 12 points take them out. I think the points should be distributed evenly and all 10 should get 20 mpg. That way none of us here cold complain about why isn't so and so getting any pt. OFC

 

[gottagonow]

Sky 10 players with 20 each would likely beat most teams and Show can u just imagine the rarity of bringing a group like this together? Well, I hope its worthy of being that rare.

 

[What Would Jesus Do?]

I think Coach K should play 10 guys and once they score 10 or 12 points take them out. I think the points should be distributed evenly and all 10 should get 20 mpg. That way none of us here cold complain about why isn't so and so getting any pt. OFC

I'm going with 2 platoons. The exact composition will be determined by who plays best together, but I'm thinking these platoons:

Platoon A
Allen
Kennard
Tatum
Giles
Jefferson

Platoon B
Jackson
Jones
DeLaurier (or White)
Jeter
Bolden

Each platoon gets 15 minutes. Whichever platoon is doing better in a particular game gets the bulk of the rest.

Cal tried to do this a couple of years back with mixed but decent results. K is a better coach and has the advantage of seeing what Cal did wrong. I think he could make it work.

The obvious advantage of a platoon system is the heightened familiarity players develop with their platoon mates. But that requires the right chemistry. We won't know if this particular roster will have the right chemistry to try this experiment. But it would be fun to see it. And it would ensure all the good players got respectable PT.

 

[Anon1728003274]

I'm going with 2 platoons. The exact composition will be determined by who plays best together, but I'm thinking these platoons:

Platoon A
Allen
Kennard
Tatum
Giles
Jefferson

Platoon B
Jackson
Jones
DeLaurier (or White)
Jeter
Bolden

Gotta I LIKE the idea!! When I look at the make-up of those "platoons" I feel VERY CONFIDENT! I also like how you incorporated the DeLaurier or White insert in "B." White is a confident kid and I am expecting great things from him as a Blue Devil before he leaves...

OFC

 

[timo0402]

There is zero chance that we platoon.

I'm not sure who will start this season alongside Grayson, Jason and Amile. My thoughts keep going back and forth between Luke and Matt for that guard spot and Harry and Bolden for that F/C spot. If Harry is 100% it's him but I like the idea more and more of Bolden starting with Amile. Bring in Luke, Frank and Harry off the bench and just KO the other team.

 

[dukehokie]

The only way a platoon would work is if each group had complimentary players. I think they can work in a lot of cases but I agree with @timo0402 that we won't see a platoon with this squad unless it's a statement sub.

 

[skysdad]

By no means am I suggesting a platoon system. I was just being my usual sarcastic self. OFC

 

[dukehokie]

By no means am I suggesting a platoon system. I was just being my usual sarcastic self. OFC

I was replying to WWJD sky.

 

[sandiego nole_rivals172509]

It's impossible to estimate everyone's average, but I disagree in some areas. GA could easily average in the 20's but I hope he buys in to chemistry and if he passes off enough to create good chemistry than he will average 17-18. Tatum probably does the same. Where I disagree is with Kennard and Jeter. I see K at 14 or better and J would have to be injured or in the doghouse to average 2.5. I see Jeter with a big breakout year averaging at least 9 points and 6-7 rebounds and Giles, Jackson, Jefferson, Bouldin, Jones at 9, 8, 6, and 5. Total is 86 and the rest of the scoring is negligible.

 

[dukehokie]

It's impossible to estimate everyone's average, but I disagree in some areas. GA could easily average in the 20's but I hope he buys in to chemistry and if he passes off enough to create good chemistry than he will average 17-18. Tatum probably does the same. Where I disagree is with Kennard and Jeter. I see K at 14 or better and J would have to be injured or in the doghouse to average 2.5. I see Jeter with a big breakout year averaging at least 9 points and 6-7 rebounds and Giles, Jackson, Jefferson, Bouldin, Jones at 9, 8, 6, and 5. Total is 86 and the rest of the scoring is negligible.

Since he won't be asked to score, I can't imagine Chase getting more than 6 or 7 a game. And even if Grayson gets 20 a game, I wouldn't take that as him not buying into the chemistry and nt passing enough. Jason Williams averaged 21 ppg and 6 assists on a team that had 5 guys who averaged double figures. It's possible and with a team this talented, I can see it happening again.

 

[skysdad]

I really don't think we will have a 20 ppg player this year but we will have about 10 guys putting up a 20 point plus game on any given night and we could have six , seven or maybe even eight double figure ppg averages this year. Going to be tough for opposition to focus their defense on just 2 or 3 Dukies. OFC