Playoff Central has predictions.

[GilliamRatings]

Playoff Central has a predictions and newest ratings up now. Keep checking in this week. Hopefully, I'll have more (some) stuff you like.

PLAYOFF CENTRAL

 

[hamspear]

Your computer is having a malfunction I think. Millbrook beats 7-3 LCA, and goes from 14 to 6? Lol and is ranked two spots higher than Sherando who just handily beat them the game before.

 

[schoolboard]

Hammy, I did several looks at his computer and how it decides things. My only guess is it gives Millbrook(and other teams) who run up big point totals extra points in the standings. So, a team that takes it starters out when they are up 40-0 with running clock, and then finish with a 40-7 win get punished by comparison, even though they might actually be the better team. It seems like his computer needs to cap any benefit from scoring points at 50, unless the point differential in the game is less than 10.

 

[GilliamRatings]

Hammy, I did several looks at his computer and how it decides things. My only guess is it gives Millbrook(and other teams) who run up big point totals extra points in the standings. So, a team that takes it starters out when they are up 40-0 with running clock, and then finish with a 40-7 win get punished by comparison, even though they might actually be the better team. It seems like his computer needs to cap any benefit from scoring points at 50, unless the point differential in the game is less than 10.

Read how the system works here: ABOUT THE GILLIAM RATINGS

Click on the button that says "More About the Ratings"

It's kind of wordy, but it explains what I've done to address some of the issues you point out.

 

[GilliamRatings]

Hammy, I did several looks at his computer and how it decides things. My only guess is it gives Millbrook(and other teams) who run up big point totals extra points in the standings. So, a team that takes it starters out when they are up 40-0 with running clock, and then finish with a 40-7 win get punished by comparison, even though they might actually be the better team. It seems like his computer needs to cap any benefit from scoring points at 50, unless the point differential in the game is less than 10.

I have tried various scoring caps and they cause good teams with weak schedules to be vastly underrated. Cal-Preps does this, however if you like that. CalPreps was 68-20 picking playoff games this week, while my system was 75-13. Calpreps traditionally has a bad opening week in the playoffs due to their cap. Making changes like this is much harder than you might think. Fixing one thing ends up messing up another.

 

[hamspear]

thanks, schoolboard, thanks gilliam.

 

[schoolboard]

Ok. Perhaps there is no way to fix it. What would have just picking the higher seed based on VHSL ratings have done? Record-wise?

And I think your Skyline odds for winning the state championship are sadly accurate. My only beef is Brentsville's odds should be almost as bad.

 

[schoolboard]

70-18. I answered my own question. Looks like you have a pretty good system.

 

[1MoreHokie]

The odds section is hilarious. OL being a 0.3 :1 favorite to win state and Skyline being a 4,417,036,693 : 1 favorite.

 

[hamspear]

Matt , you should play the pickem next year using your computer predictions and see if you come out a winner

 

[Imahokie]

I found it interesting that the only games where 1 school was picked to score 0 points was in 3a. And there were 3. Why no stats like tgatvin any other division?

 

[GilliamRatings]

Your computer is having a malfunction I think. Millbrook beats 7-3 LCA, and goes from 14 to 6? Lol and is ranked two spots higher than Sherando who just handily beat them the game before.

Computer wasn't bad on this one. Predicted Millbrook to lose by 9, they lost by 14, off by 5.

 

[GilliamRatings]

Computer went 38-8 tonight. It was 5-4 the 9 times it picked against the VHSL higher seed.