Playoff Chances?

[CookieMonster.sixpack]

A lot of you seem to think 11-1 gets us in the CFP.

Given there's a decent chance the only CFP ranked team we'll have played is Bama, how do you see us edging out the Big XII champ (TCU or Baylor or both) and a 12-1 Ohio St?


The the committee has shown its more about who you've beaten more than who you lost to. That hurts us since we will have the best loss.


I think we have to root for chaos. Taking care of our business won't be enough.

 

[RocketDawg]

I think we're in if we win out, but we have to hammer Vandy (shouldn't be difficult) and beat the Bears by a couple TDs. Last minute FG might not do it.

Remember that TCU almost and should have lost to West Virginia, now unranked and only in the 20s when they played. For that matter, Alabama could well have 3 losses right now (Ark and LSU, both of whom pretty much suck).

 

[Confucius Say]

You know my thoughts on this. We win out and we are in. ATm, aub, Lsu, om would be four top 30 wins (give or take depending on finish, maybe higher, maybe lower) and only loss to top two team on road by five points. Tcu, Baylor, and osu resume is not close to that.

 

[Hammer Down]

I think we have to root for chaos.

This is accurate in any fans' minds. Taking care of business may or may not be enough, but chaos is obviously good for us.

 

[LawDawg97]

We'll know a lot Tuesday night obviously

I think we have to root for chaos. Taking care of our business won't be enough.

But if Ole Miss beats Arkansas, they are a top 8 team when we go to their place. Win that and we're in. TCU will be left out.

 

[ronpolk]

Win out and we are in. Assuming everybody wins out, I see Florida st and us in the sugar bowl and bama and Oregon in the rose.

 

[Boardtown Remy]

I still think the committee will boost for conference champions. 12-1 will beat out 11-1 teams. I can see us bumping out TCU, Baylor. One of the current conference leaders will have to open the door for us. I could see us jumping a 1 loss FSU that dropped the ACC title game.

 

[Bulldog from Birth]

We need help, but not much

I think we'll be 4th in the Tuesday poll but I don't think we control our own destiny. Yesterday's results were absolutely BRUTAL to us. We could afford the loss to Bama, but the losses by Auburn, LSU, and A&M were killers. Either LSU or A&M will finish outside the Top 25 now for certain. Auburn likely loses to Bama and is a Top 20 team at best.

Obviously Bama, Oregon, and FSU control their destiny to finish ahead of us. I think due to the Big 10's ineptitude, we probably get in over a 1-loss Ohio State team. The Big 12 champion scares me though. I'm not sure the committee doesn't default to going with a major conference champion. We need to cheer hard for Oregon to lose once more.

 

[Hammer Down]

I still think the committee will boost for conference champions. 12-1 will beat out 11-1 teams. I can see us bumping out TCU, Baylor. One of the current conference leaders will have to open the door for us. I could see us jumping a 1 loss FSU that dropped the ACC title game.

FSU won't lose, they are in, along with Alabama. Oregon is probably in, although they could possible drop a game at Corvallis or vs. USC in their championship game, however unlikely. Our main competition will be the Big 12 and B1G champions. I can't see how they would leave out a 12-1 Ohio State team that is the B1G champion. No matter the resume.

 

[UpTheMiddlex3Punt]

As much crap as everyone gives the Big 12 for not having a championship game, they at least all play each other. I think that might get a 1-loss big 12 team in over us. We didn't have to play a team from the SECE with a winning record.

 

[Bulldog from Birth]

It's going to be interesting to see how it goes, especially if its a split Big 12 Title between TCU and Baylor? Does the committee view that as a full conference title for each? A half for each? If you go by traditional rules, Baylor wins it because of the head-to-head win over TCU. But they have a far worse loss (to West Virginia by a couple scores) and a HORRID non-conference schedule worse than ours. It will be interesting.

 

[Old Fart Dawg]

we can still hope UT takes care of business in austin. It's not as much of a longshot as some think, and they've been playing well lately

 

[Rogershep]

People would scream bloody murder if they didn't take a one loss conference champ despite the claim of wanting the four best teams. That being said we need help. The main thing is win the next two and root for Auburn. Go to the SECCG. Win and we are a one loss champ from the number one conference.

 

[MabenMaroon]

Of course we need to win both Vandy and tsun games, but the tsun game is the one we need to show complete and convincing dominance in. Although Jeff Long and some of the others say that they are looking at the "full" body of work, I am afraid that there will be some of that "Connerly Trophy voter" type mentality creep in at the end and there will be too much emphasis put on the last games played. Actually, we need to be thorough an convincing in both games.

 

[WayboDawg]

All I can say is an 11-1 team with our non-conference cupcake schedule should not get in over a 12-1 TCU or Ohio State conference champion. No amount of homerism in me can justify that. Now if Auburn, LSU, and Texas A&M were all still ranked in the top 15 we might have a different discussion. But now that they all have 3+ losses it shouldn't even be a discussion in the committee's eyes. We need to win our next two games convincingly, and we need a bunch of other conferences to have 2 loss champions. 11-1 with a trip to the Peach Bowl is absolutely still a great season for us though. I'd take it in a heartbeat.

 

[thatsbaseball]

If there is even a slightly justifiable way to hold the SEC to one playoff participant there will be only one SEC participant. As someone else stated we need to pray for chaos.

 

[patdog]

FSU won't lose

Not if they play Duke in the ACC title game, they won't. But if Duke screws up and loses to UNC or Wake, GA Tech could give FSU some real problems.

 

[00Dawg]

11-1 and not in the playoff puts us in Miami, not Atlanta, but I can't disagree with anything else you wrote.

However, I fully expect Ohio State to lose to Wisconsin. What I'm not nearly as confident in is Oregon losing or both Baylor and TCU (or at least TCU) dropping a game.

 

[bulldogbaja]

A lot of you seem to think 11-1 gets us in the CFP.
Given there's a decent chance the only CFP ranked team we'll have played is Bama, how do you see us edging out the Big XII champ (TCU or Baylor or both) and a 12-1 Ohio St?

Those teams haven't played any top four teams either...
Unless if you're suggesting that Alabama is the only team we play this year that will end in the top 25, which if that's what you are saying, I'm not sure how to help you.

 

[GloryDawg]

I think it all comes down to how much pressure is being put on the committee from out side and how vocal the former coaches on the committee are and how much they can push the four non coaches around.

 

[CookieMonster.sixpack]

Help me how?

Ole Miss loses to Arkansas and us. They could find themselves unranked.
Winner of LSU & A&M might not be ranked, loser certainly won't be.
Auburn loses to Bama, won't be ranked.
Arkansas likely won't be ranked even if they win out.

There is a very real chance that MSU, Bama, Mizzou & UGA are the only top 25 teams from the SEC in the CFP poll come December 7.

We don't play Mizzou or UGA so their ranking doesn't help us.

 

[Rogershep]

I guess I think about it in these terms. Alabama will have to win out and the SECCG to make it to the playoffs. Why should we be any different? I want us to go to Atlanta. I want the West and the Sec champ banners. I think it's safe to say if it comes down to 11-1 MSU the committee is taking somebody else. We just don't catch those breaks.

But first we have to get to 11-1. If Bama loses to Auburn and we lose to Ole Miss, it will be the worst 10-2 season ever.

 

[bulldogbaja]

No there's not.
There have been 5, 5, and 6 SEC W teams in the first three CFP rankings. One team loses and drops, and whoever beats them moves up. If Ark beats OM, after beating LSU, they will be ranked. LSU/A&M winner will probably be ranked. Ole Miss will be ranked even after we beat them, unless if they get killed by arkansas AND us. Auburn will be ranked. yeah, the SECE having a big weekend knocked some of the luster off, but to say that only two teams from the W will be ranked is kinda losing your perspective.

 

[Chappy.sixpack]

No there's not.
There have been 5, 5, and 6 SEC W teams in the first three CFP rankings. One team loses and drops, and whoever beats them moves up. If Ark beats OM, after beating LSU, they will be ranked. LSU/A&M winner will probably be ranked.

No way that a 5 loss Arkansas team is ranked next week even if they destroy Ole Miss. I do think Arkansas is one of the best 25 teams in the country, but no way they put a 5-loss team in the rankings. The SEC West is slowly being bled dry... by ourselves! Clearly a case of cannibalism but the only thing we (the SEC) are getting out of this is that our teams are the highest teams with that record. We have the highest ranked 1-loss team (Bama), the highest ranked 2-loss team (OM), the highest ranked 3-loss team (Auburn) - but LSU is gone from rankings because of 4th loss.