Does anyone else think that they're going to end up with a different number 1 for the sake of being different than the AP poll?
Playoff Committee
- Thread starter NewHampshireMafia
- Start date
I'm worried they're going to come out with something really strange, like
Oregon
Florida State
Notre Dame
Ole Miss
Oregon
Florida State
Notre Dame
Ole Miss
Let's hope this isn't a circus... but who knows. They could line it up just like some have always wanted it... ND - Bama - Oregon - FSU. If they have two SEC teams at anypoint in the same week, I don't see it finishing the year that way in the actual playoff. This stuff is just going to be eye candy.
big tv.
big tv.
Nope. If they take care of business on Saturday, then MSU's strength of schedule and the other analytics provided by SportsSource will have MSU as the clear #1. In fact, I was confident of this as soon as the Auburn game was over, meaning, even if FSU had stayed #1 in the polls I have no doubt MSU will be #1 in the first committee poll.
As long as MSU wins on Saturday.
I also suspect that UMiss will be #2 if they can bat LSU.
As long as MSU wins on Saturday.
I also suspect that UMiss will be #2 if they can bat LSU.
I think 8 of the 12 are going to be clones for their conferences and void each other out but these four Micheal Gould, Tom Jernstedt, Condoleeza Rice and Steve Wieberg do not have any dogs in the hunt and as far as I can tell Jernstedt is the only one connected to college football in any form and that was with the NCAA for 30 years. I think those four are going to block vote and do everything to get it right. Just my opinion.
I was thinking more along the lines of 1. Ole Miss 2. MSU 3. FSU
Ole Miss came up to number 1 in Sports Illustrated's power rankings this week. The writer said that he flipped a coin. After this weekend, they'd have a win at LSU to match ours. They'd have a win against A&M at A&M, while ours was at home. And they'd have a win against Bama at home that would be similar to ours against Auburn. They'd have a win against boise state vs ours at Kentucky. I could definitely see the committee putting Ole Miss ahead of us.
The anlaytics do not favor UMiss, because too many of their games have been close. I don't really agree with analyzing how teams won, just so long as they won, but that's a big part of why MSU is in front right now. I agree, though, that if they dominate LSU they could be at #1.
Shouldn't there be some requirements involving watching ALOT of games in order to cast a vote on the committee? For example, lets say a Big 10 guy on the panel thinks Michigan State should be in but not us.... shouldn't he be required to at least watch some game film or even one game we've played and not look at scores? If they just look at scores and stats they'll say "hmmm state only beat LSU by five" and that we gave up tons of yardage against UAB. You really have to actually watch our games to see we've been absolutely dominant so far.
Advanced Stats aren't allowed in the committee room anyway.
http://www.sbnation.com/college-foo...ge-football-playoff-selection-committee-stats
http://www.sbnation.com/college-foo...ge-football-playoff-selection-committee-stats
Everything I've heard has been that the committee members take this job very seriously and watch all pertinent games every week.
I disagree completely. With all of the scrutiny, the Committee is going to be as non-controversial as possible and will just rubber-stamp the 4 teams that are already generally considered to be the top 4.
Along the line of what I'm thinking
to me, about the only spots to be considered will be #4... and possibly #3 if confusion gets in the way.
Most of this will work it's self out.
to me, about the only spots to be considered will be #4... and possibly #3 if confusion gets in the way.
Most of this will work it's self out.
Be fore Archie stepped down he said the committee does receive film on every team that is in consideration every week.
I can't imagine that there is anyone on the committee who doesn't take the job seriously and will honestly try not to be biased towards the conference they come from. Of course, it's not possible for anyone not to have some bias, but I don't think anyone will come in with an agenda to get a team from their conference in the playoff.
I agree with Bulldog Blitz.. this is all for show until the last two to three weeks of the season. At that point, the judging criteria will be more noticeable, and teams that are on the outside looking in will play games according to the perceived criteria.. that is, style points will be key.
We have one job .. win our remaining games .. that will take any subjectivity out of it.
We have one job .. win our remaining games .. that will take any subjectivity out of it.
I think they may end up with a different Top 4 order....
And that's exactly the reason they are waiting until after Week 9 to release their first poll.
If you start pre-season, you fall into the trap of judging teams based on your pre-season assumptions. For example, A&M got a HUGE boost from beating a South Carolina team that we now know is not very good at all. However, since SC was Top 10 at the time (a meaningless and un-earned ranking) A&M got bumped way too high.
They'll be able to judge teams based on a full resume, starting from scratch, to have a better understanding of just how good certain wins are and just how bad certain losses were, rather than building in an assumed value to those wins and losses before you truly know as much about the teams.
So yes, I do think they'll end up with a different Top 4 than the AP, but not necessarily because they're trying to be different, mainly because they'll be starting with better values placed on teams and wins than a poll system that started pre-season.
And that's exactly the reason they are waiting until after Week 9 to release their first poll.
If you start pre-season, you fall into the trap of judging teams based on your pre-season assumptions. For example, A&M got a HUGE boost from beating a South Carolina team that we now know is not very good at all. However, since SC was Top 10 at the time (a meaningless and un-earned ranking) A&M got bumped way too high.
They'll be able to judge teams based on a full resume, starting from scratch, to have a better understanding of just how good certain wins are and just how bad certain losses were, rather than building in an assumed value to those wins and losses before you truly know as much about the teams.
So yes, I do think they'll end up with a different Top 4 than the AP, but not necessarily because they're trying to be different, mainly because they'll be starting with better values placed on teams and wins than a poll system that started pre-season.
Legitimate question: If Archie remained on the committee do you think he would
have helped State get in the playoffs?
First, let's assume first that Ole Miss has 2 losses and is out of contention.
Second, what if State loses a very close EB (1 loss) and OM wins SECCG (undefeated), does he push for 2?
I think Archie is pro-Mississippi and pro-SEC. The State loss in the above scenario would probably be "the best" loss of any team in the country, so I've got to think that State would be considered the best 1-loss team and make it. However, I'm curious how this board view's Archie's involvement.
have helped State get in the playoffs?
First, let's assume first that Ole Miss has 2 losses and is out of contention.
Second, what if State loses a very close EB (1 loss) and OM wins SECCG (undefeated), does he push for 2?
I think Archie is pro-Mississippi and pro-SEC. The State loss in the above scenario would probably be "the best" loss of any team in the country, so I've got to think that State would be considered the best 1-loss team and make it. However, I'm curious how this board view's Archie's involvement.
I thought we were outscoring opp by an average of 24 per game compared to MSU at 21 per game. The panel may switch it up in the beginning just for the sake of it. In the end, winning cures it all.
I was actually upset when Archie stepped down. He is a smart guy and would've done the right thing whether he is an OM alum or not.
MSU has been in control of its games from start to finish. The Rebs have generally controlled the second half of their games, but has struggled in the first half, so the analytics relating to game control strongly favor MSU. I agree, though, that winning is really the bottom line.
The reality is that a one loss MSU team misses the top 4, a one loss Ole Miss team misses the top 4. If both win out until the Egg Bowl that loser will drop to like 6. Too many 1 loss teams out there with very soft schedules to overcome a "recent" loss at the end of the season.
Assuming nothing crazy happens FSU, SEC Champ, Oregon are in, it's all for one spot among the rest of the one loss folks.
Assuming nothing crazy happens FSU, SEC Champ, Oregon are in, it's all for one spot among the rest of the one loss folks.
In that hypothetical, Archie would've had no impact either way.
The way they're doing it, they address teams in batches. If Ole Miss is in the batch to be considered for the playoff, then Archie would've had to recuse himself, which means he wouldn't have had any voice on ANY team involved in the playoff discussion from my understanding. I believe he'd have been out of the room until after his recusal team was slotted. Then, he'd have come back to join in the discussions for other slots.
Now, if Ole Miss had 2 losses, and we were outside of the top discussion, he'd be involved in that scenario.
As far as our teams are concerned with having 1 loss. If either of us is a 1 loss SEC champion, then yes we're in the playoff. If we're 11-1 with an Egg Bowl loss, then it depends on the rest of the country. In that hypothetical, both Bama and Auburn would be 2 loss teams. Oregon could easily lose again. Notre Dame could easily lose again. It's feasible that the Big 12 doesn't have a 1 loss team. It's feasible the Big 10 could not have a 1 loss team either if the winner of OSU-MSU doesn't run the table.
If those things shook out, then yes the loser of the Egg Bowl would likely be an easy choice for one of the final slots, assuming the winner of the Egg Bowl was a 13-0 or 12-1 SEC champion.
With the way this season is shaking out, there is a strong possibility that the committee has no choice but to take a 1 loss SEC team that didn't win the SEC.
You are exactly right and that is a shame. If our only loss was to MSU in the Egg Bowl, I see them taking an Oregon or Michigan State one loss team even though neither would deserve it. A 11-1 State or Ole Miss team should be in over any other one loss team in the country.
There's no reason to think that will be the case other than pure pessimism. We all should give the committee the benefit of the doubt until they actually release a poll, but I think you would see a 2nd 1-loss SEC team get in over the 3rd 1-loss non-SEC conference champ. OM might be iffy given their schedule and that their loss would be at home or to a weaker team. I think MSU would be relatively safe. Bama safer, and Auburn a lock because of their schedule.
ETA: I don't think it's very likely that this kind of scenario plays out anyway. We're only halfway through the year. There are a lot of upsets still to come.
ETA: I don't think it's very likely that this kind of scenario plays out anyway. We're only halfway through the year. There are a lot of upsets still to come.
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