Playoff Projections

[Doctor Worm]

In my humble opinion:

There are seven teams left contending for the four available spots:

• Georgia
• Michigan
• Florida State
• Washington
• Oregon
• Texas
• Alabama

Note that I have excluded Ohio State. I see no path for them, as they cannot improve their resume, and the other one-loss teams can.

The orderly outcome is that the four unbeaten teams win. Equally orderly is that three of the four win, and Oregon beats Washington. In either of those scenarios, the four playoff selections are obvious, with no controversy.

BUT: Since we hate order and love chaos, and this is our last real chance for chaos, I offer the following what-ifs:

1) Alabama beats Georgia

Obviously (at least I think it's obvious), Alabama is in. The committee cannot exclude a 12-1 SEC Champion.

But what about Georgia? Are they also in? Have they already done enough to clinch their position? If so, whose spot do they take? If FSU loses, then they take FSU's spot. But what if FSU wins? Would the committee leave a 13-0 P5 champion out in the cold? That would be some prime chaos.

2) Iowa beats Michigan

Is there a path for Michigan to survive this? Or does Texas take its spot by beating OK State?

3) Georgia, Michigan, FSU, Washington, and Texas all lose

This is the ultimate chaos scenario. No unbeatens left, but seven one-loss teams, including Ohio State whom I have already dismissed. So who's in? Oregon and Alabama for sure. Georgia I guess. Probably comes down to Michigan or Washington for the other spot.

This could be boring or it could be fun. Chaos is fun. I want fun.

EDIT: Upon review of this thread, I agree that Ohio State is still alive. It would take a few upsets for them to get in, but it is possible.

 

[JayDogSmooth]

I can see cases for FSU both ways if they beat Louisville next week

Against
Their SOS isn’t good
JT out for year

For
Undefeated
Scheduled LSU & UF SOS
Not their fault those two plus Clemson & rest of ACC aren’t good

 

[Doctor Worm]

Another thought - if Alabama beats Georgia, how do you include 12-1 Alabama and exclude 12-1 Texas, who won by double digits in Tuscaloosa?

 

[RutgersDom]

In my humble opinion:

There are seven teams left contending for the four available spots:

• Georgia
• Michigan
• Florida State
• Washington
• Oregon
• Texas
• Alabama

Note that I have excluded Ohio State. I see no path for them, as they cannot improve their resume, and the other one-loss teams can.

The orderly outcome is that the four unbeaten teams win. Equally orderly is that three of the four win, and Oregon beats Washington. In either of those scenarios, the four playoff selections are obvious, with no controversy.

BUT: Since we hate order and love chaos, and this is our last real chance for chaos, I offer the following what-ifs:

1) Alabama beats Georgia

Obviously (at least I think it's obvious), Alabama is in. The committee cannot exclude a 12-1 SEC Champion.

But what about Georgia? Are they also in? Have they already done enough to clinch their position? If so, whose spot do they take? If FSU loses, then they take FSU's spot. But what if FSU wins? Would the committee leave a 13-0 P5 champion out in the cold? That would be some prime chaos.

2) Iowa beats Michigan

Is there a path for Michigan to survive this? Or does Texas take its spot by beating OK State?

3) Georgia, Michigan, FSU, Washington, and Texas all lose

This is the ultimate chaos scenario. No unbeatens left, but seven one-loss teams, including Ohio State whom I have already dismissed. So who's in? Oregon and Alabama for sure. Georgia I guess. Probably comes down to Michigan or Washington for the other spot.

This could be boring or it could be fun. Chaos is fun. I want fun.

In your last scenario u mean Mich or Oregon right? Of Oregon beats wash in pac championship they jump wash

 

[RutgersDom]

Another thought - if Alabama beats Georgia, how do you include 12-1 Alabama and exclude 12-1 Texas, who won by double digits in Tuscaloosa?

Strength of schedule?

 

[Rutgers Chris]

Georgia wins- in
Michigan wins- in
Washington wins- in
Texas/FSU lose- out
Ohio State- in

 

[Frabjous_rivals]

Michigan should be out because of their cheating but that would require too much intestinal fortitude by the decision-makers.

 

[WhiteBus]

Michigan should be out because of their cheating but that would require too much intestinal fortitude by the decision-makers.

Who would make that decision? The NCAA? Nope, they have no control. The committee? Nope. They don't look at off the field issues. There is no one that can make that decision.

 

[fsg2_rivals]

No way should two one-loss SEC teams be in over an undefeated conf champ. SEC champ in; loser out.

Watching the losing team and SEC brass cry about it will be part of the magic of the holiday season.

 

[Rutgers Chris]

No way should two one-loss SEC teams be in over an undefeated conf champ. SEC champ in; loser out.

Watching the losing team and SEC brass cry about it will be part of the magic of the holiday season.

If Georgia loses they’ll use the injured qb as a reason to keep FSU out and put Georgia in.

 

[RuSnp]

Michigan should be out because of their cheating but that would require too much intestinal fortitude by the decision-makers.

Saying OSU has no chance is a mistake. Cheating allegations aside, Michigan should be #1 seed after this weekend (PSU and OSU wins should be enough for the resume). It's circular but you can't kill a team (OSU in this case) for losing to (potential) #1 at their place when OSU arguably out played them.

My guess: 1) Michigan 2) Georgia 3) Washington 4) FSU 5) OSU 6) Oregon 7) Texas 8) Alabama 9) PSU 10) Missouri.

 

[Pils86]

Four undefeated in the playoffs would be cool and someone would finish with a perfect season.

 

[RCBeta79]

Georgia wins- in
Michigan wins- in
Washington wins- in
Texas/FSU lose- out
Ohio State- in

Additional Scenarios:

Georgia wins- in
Michigan wins- in
Washington vs Oregon Winner in
Texas/FSU lose- out - Ohio State- in

Georgia wins- in
Michigan loses - Ohio State in
Washington vs Oregon winner in
Texas/FSU lose- out - Michigan in

 

[rubigtimenow]

FWIW I follow this relatively closely but obviously this just my educated opinion.

These 2 spots are taken:
- Michigan wins = in
- Oregon\Washington winner = in

Next most likely:
- Georgia = This may surprise people but unless Bama beats Georgia convincingly, GA likely is in with a W or L this coming weekend.
- FSU = win and they’re in

Others with a chance:
- Texas. They win AND Bama wins it gets interesting but they’re on the outside.
- Bama needs to win and FSU + TX to lose. Even that might not be enough to overtake….
- Osu still definitely alive. Def needs at least FSU to lose. Probably but not definitively needs Texas to lose. If those 2 + Bama loses too then OSU certainly in.

 

[Plum Street]

FWIW I follow this relatively closely but obviously this just my educated opinion.

These 2 spots are taken:
- Michigan wins = in
- Oregon\Washington winner = in

Next most likely:
- Georgia = This may surprise people but unless Bama beats Georgia convincingly, GA likely is in with a W or L this coming weekend.
- FSU = win and they’re in

Others with a chance:
- Texas. They win AND Bama wins it gets interesting but they’re on the outside.
- Bama needs to win and FSU + TX to lose. Even that might not be enough to overtake….
- Osu still definitely alive. Needs at least FSU and Texas to lose. If Bama loses too then they’re certainly in.

If Bama wins, they will get in

 

[rubigtimenow]

If Bama wins, they will get in

Hopefully we will never know but just a single win isn’t guaranteeing them top 4 right now, by any stretch of the imagination.

 

[MGSA99]

The committee is praying for the undefeated teams to win so it makes their job easy.

 

[Plum Street]

The committee is praying for the undefeated teams to win so it makes their job easy.

Yes

Easiest path is Michigan , Georgia , Florida state and Oregon/washington winner .

 

[RuSnp]

If Bama wins, they will get in

Agree with this. The idea of a playoffs without an SEC champ.... it will take a few non-SEC Champs before that happens.

But let's say Mich beats Iowa and Bama pulls the upset over Georgia.

Very possible in that scenario that Georgia sneaks past FSU at 4 and you have #1 Mich vrs #4 Georgia and #2 Wash vrs #3 Bama. With an all-SEC final a strong possibility.

 

[T2Kplus20]

In my humble opinion:

There are seven teams left contending for the four available spots:

• Georgia
• Michigan
• Florida State
• Washington
• Oregon
• Texas
• Alabama

Note that I have excluded Ohio State. I see no path for them, as they cannot improve their resume, and the other one-loss teams can.

The orderly outcome is that the four unbeaten teams win. Equally orderly is that three of the four win, and Oregon beats Washington. In either of those scenarios, the four playoff selections are obvious, with no controversy.

BUT: Since we hate order and love chaos, and this is our last real chance for chaos, I offer the following what-ifs:

1) Alabama beats Georgia

Obviously (at least I think it's obvious), Alabama is in. The committee cannot exclude a 12-1 SEC Champion.

But what about Georgia? Are they also in? Have they already done enough to clinch their position? If so, whose spot do they take? If FSU loses, then they take FSU's spot. But what if FSU wins? Would the committee leave a 13-0 P5 champion out in the cold? That would be some prime chaos.

2) Iowa beats Michigan

Is there a path for Michigan to survive this? Or does Texas take its spot by beating OK State?

3) Georgia, Michigan, FSU, Washington, and Texas all lose

This is the ultimate chaos scenario. No unbeatens left, but seven one-loss teams, including Ohio State whom I have already dismissed. So who's in? Oregon and Alabama for sure. Georgia I guess. Probably comes down to Michigan or Washington for the other spot.

This could be boring or it could be fun. Chaos is fun. I want fun.

Unless Georgia literally gets destroyed and embarrassed by Bama (highly unlikely), they are in. A Bama win means 2 SEC teams are going to the playoffs.

 

[NickRU714]

If Oregon wins:

Oregon 12-1 and PAC12 Champ (only loss to 12-1 top 5 team Washington)

Washington 12-1 (only loss to PAC12 champ and also beat PAC12 champ earlier in season)

Interesting how they split between the two.
Similar to Bama/Georgia if Bama wins.

 

[NickRU714]

Yes

Easiest path is Michigan , Georgia , Florida state and Oregon/washington winner .

Oregon wouldn't be undefeated though.
They lost to Washington.
Now they beat Washington to even up the series.
Both would be 12-1 with losses to each other.

 

[Plum Street]

Oregon wouldn't be undefeated though.
They lost to Washington.
Now they beat Washington to even up the series.
Both would be 12-1 with losses to each other.

I think in that scenario Oregon is in over other 1 loss teams . Due to having the best win of the weekend

 

[RuSnp]

If Oregon wins:

Oregon 12-1 and PAC12 Champ (only loss to 12-1 top 5 team Washington)

Washington 12-1 (only loss to PAC12 champ and also beat PAC12 champ earlier in season)

Interesting how they split between the two.
Similar to Bama/Georgia if Bama wins.

I can't see any scenario Washington gets in with a loss. The decision makers will look at that game as an elimination game. And based on how strong the PAC has been this year the winner - either Wash or Oregon - has a spot - period.

 

[JayDogSmooth]

Putting in a one loss team versus an undefeated team devalues the regular season, and completely devalues the conference championship games

Things will be interesting with next weeks games for sure

 

[T2Kplus20]

I think in that scenario Oregon is in over other 1 loss teams . Due to having the best win of the weekend

Both 1-loss Washington and Oregon will be out if Bama and FSU win.

 

[NickRU714]

I can't see any scenario Washington gets in with a loss. The decision makers will look at that game as an elimination game. And based on how strong the PAC has been this year the winner - either Wash or Oregon - has a spot - period.

Agreed but seems unfair.

Washington would have arguably the best win the country - over Top 4 Oregon.
And their only loss would be to CFP Oregon.

Georgia for example would have a loss to CFP Bama but best win only over Top 10 Ole Miss.

 

[Plum Street]

Both 1-loss Washington and Oregon will be out if Bama and FSU win.

In that scenario yes.
I was mentioning a scenario where Georgia, Michigan and fsu win

 

[NickRU714]

Putting in a one loss team versus an undefeated team devalues the regular season, and completely devalues the conference championship games

Things will be interesting with next weeks games for sure

See my thread about Army and now Liberty.

Undefeated only matters for half of CFB anyway. Why stop at 5 conferences being meaningless?

 

[RuSnp]

Putting in a one loss team versus an undefeated team devalues the regular season, and completely devalues the conference championship games

Things will be interesting with next weeks games for sure

It's the best 4 teams. That's the criterion. "Devaluing" this or that is irrelevant. Are you telling me if the 2-time defending national champ loses in - say - triple OT to Bama you think FSU - now without its starting qb - should be in over them? FSU really needs to obliterate Louisville this week considering Louisville just lost to Kentucky who was 3-5 in the SEC. Your signature win is over the 5th best team in the SEC. SEC is the big dawg. My feel is the committee will sway towards that league until given enough evidence not to.

 

[fsg2_rivals]

Both 1-loss Washington and Oregon will be out if Bama and FSU win.

F no.

Oregon's been the best looking team of the second half in what they're calling strongest top to bottom conference and would be the champ of that conference.

 

[JayDogSmooth]

It's the best 4 teams. That's the criterion. "Devaluing" this or that is irrelevant. Are you telling me if the 2-time defending national champ loses in - say - triple OT to Bama you think FSU - now without its starting qb - should be in over them? FSU really needs to obliterate Louisville this week considering Louisville just lost to Kentucky who was 3-5 in the SEC. Your signature win is over the 5th best team in the SEC. SEC is the big dawg. My feel is the committee will sway towards that league until given enough evidence not to.

UGA in regardless unless they lose 68-0

It's the best 4 teams. That's the criterion. "Devaluing" this or that is irrelevant. Are you telling me if the 2-time defending national champ loses in - say - triple OT to Bama you think FSU - now without its starting qb - should be in over them? FSU really needs to obliterate Louisville this week considering Louisville just lost to Kentucky who was 3-5 in the SEC. Your signature win is over the 5th best team in the SEC. SEC is the big dawg. My feel is the committee will sway towards that league until given enough evidence not to.

Unless they lose 68-0, UGA is in

Re FSU, its not their fault that everyone on their schedule sucks

We scheduled LSU & UF OOC
LSU was preseason top 5

Duke was good when they came into Doak
Clemson was supposed to be good
Miami was supposed to be improved

We’ll get in if we’re undefeated, but get dinged bc we didn’t look dominant in most games and w Trav being hurt, the theory amongst the experts is Tate can only take us so far

It’s subjective in a way bc the game of who almost beat who comes into play as wrll

Bama shoukd have lost to Auburn who lost to New Mexico st, and they already have one loss

Texas barely beats TCU, who lost to Colorado, and they have one loss to a 3 loss OU squad

Huskies need last second miracle to beat wazzu @ wash and had a few close games this year against less than stellar competition (sans Oregon)

Noles beat Ville and they’ll get in - prefer to play Michigan in the 2/3 game rather than uga in the 1/4, but getting in is the key either way

 

[fsg2_rivals]

Unless they lose 68-0, UGA is in

Re FSU, its not their fault that everyone on their schedule sucks

We scheduled LSU & UF OOC
LSU was preseason top 5

Duke was good when they came into Doak
Clemson was supposed to be good
Miami was supposed to be improved

We’ll get in if we’re undefeated, but get dinged bc we didn’t look dominant in most games and w Trav being hurt, the theory amongst the experts is Tate can only take us so far

It’s subjective in a way bc the game of who almost beat who comes into play as wrll

Bama shoukd have lost to Auburn who lost to New Mexico st, and they already have one loss

Texas barely beats TCU, who lost to Colorado, and they have one loss to a 3 loss OU squad

Huskies need last second miracle to beat wazzu @ wash and had a few close games this year against less than stellar competition (sans Oregon)

Noles beat Ville and they’ll get in - prefer to play Michigan in the 2/3 game rather than uga in the 1/4, but getting in is the key either way

Wash game wasn't really a "miracle."

 

[JayDogSmooth]

Wash game wasn't really a "miracle."

FG not miracle typo
Wash has looked good all year
Pennix is legit

 

[rubigtimenow]

i think many of you are not paying close attention to this year but going off of the past. Bama is 8th right now. They’re not moving up this week after barely surviving Auburn. Beating GA is a squeaker does NOT get them in unless other teams lose.

 

[rubigtimenow]

The committee is praying for the undefeated teams to win so it makes their job easy.

Well, Oregon is 100% in with a win.
But if Michigan or FSU loses or Georgia loses by a “significant” margin, then yes, their job becomes more difficult.

 

[ivan brunetti]

It's the best 4 teams. That's the criterion. "Devaluing" this or that is irrelevant. Are you telling me if the 2-time defending national champ loses in - say - triple OT to Bama you think FSU - now without its starting qb - should be in over them? FSU really needs to obliterate Louisville this week considering Louisville just lost to Kentucky who was 3-5 in the SEC. Your signature win is over the 5th best team in the SEC. SEC is the big dawg. My feel is the committee will sway towards that league until given enough evidence not to.

Yes, a 13-0 FSU should be in over a non champ Georgia.

You can't include the results of past seasons. You can't just use the rationale that FSU doesn't look top four today and not also use that logic to exclude Georgia. Squeaking by Georgia Tech by one score and then losing to Bama is not a "top four today" resume.

I don't think Washington is a top four team, but if the Huskies somehow defeat Oregon next week, they are definitely in.

 

[NickRU714]

Alabama, Michigan, Washington, FSU - the only unbeatens (except for Liberty - but G5 regular season doesn't matter for the CFP).

Oregon, OSU, Texas and Alabama the one loss teams.

Not sure how #1 Georgia gets in with a loss to #8 Alabama.
Especially if #5 Oregon beats #3 Washington.


Georgia best win would be #11 Ole Miss.
OSU would have a win over #9 PSU (only loss to Top 2 Michigan)

Texas would have a win over #3/4 Alabama (only loss to #12 Oklahoma)

12-1 Washington would have a win over Top 2/3 Oregon and only loss to Top 2/3 Oregon.


If Bama wins, wouldnt this make most sense:
#1 Michigan undefeated
#2 FSU undefeated
#3 PAC 12 winner
#4 PAC 12 loser (unless its Oregon at 11-2) or Texas
then Bama, OSU, Georgia

Why is PAC 12 a loser goes home match but SEC isn't?

 

[Doctor Worm]

The Athletic did an interesting analysis (linked for those who can access). They assume Michigan will beat Iowa, which leaves 16 possible combinations of the outcomes of the other games. They looked at each possible outcome and concluded the following:

• MIchigan (whose win is assumed), Georgia, Washington, Oregon, Alabama, and FSU are all win and in. In other words, Texas is the only team still playing who does not control its own destiny.
• Oregon, Alabama, FSU, and Texas are all must-win. Lose and they are out. No two-loss team has a chance under this analysis.
• If Texas wins, they need Georgia OR FSU to lose.
• If Georgia loses, they need both FSU and Texas to lose.
• If Washington loses, they need Georgia to win (knocking out Alabama), and FSU and Texas to lose. Under this scenario, it would come down to Washington vs. Ohio State for the last spot. The Athletic gives it to Washington.
• Ohio State is still alive, but need Georgia to beat Alabama, Washington to beat Oregon, and FSU and Texas to both lose.

To me, the noteworthy thing about this analysis is that Alabama and FSU are both considered win and in. I have seen disagreement on that.

Georgia loses to Alabama: Predicting the College Football Playoff scenarios

As we approach championship weekend, eight teams can still reach the CFP. Here's the path for each of them.

theathletic.com

 

[Rutgers85_rivals]

Next year will obviously be easier. Plus, There is a chance Michigan and Ohio State play each other 3 times next year. Last week of season, then next week in Big Ten championship and in the playoff.