If MSU loses, that means Iowa wins and gets in. If Clemson loses a close game, I think they still get in. If they get blown out, then UNC will get in. If Bama loses, Ohio State will get in.
MSU and Iowa are a defacto playoff game. Winner is in for sure.
If Bama and Clemson both lose, would think Ohio State is certain to be in the top 4 then. Can't see Bama getting a bid with two losses, especially since they will have lost at home (to Ole Miss) and on a neutral field as a 17 point favorite. Then, you would have to pick between UNC and Clemson. If UNC won on a last minute fluke hail mary or kick six, maybe Clemson still gets a bid. If UNC wins by two TDs, I think they get spot no. 4.
If Bama wins, but Clemson loses, that is the really tough call between Ohio State, Clemson and UNC for the 4th spot.
I don't think UNC should get in, but I just have this feeling the committee will position them tomorrow night so they can make that leap if they win big against Clemson.