At this point in Tyus's freshman season, I was one of the few voices at TDD predicting that he'd be OAD. As the season wears on, and the more I read NBA mocks, the less sure about Tre being OAD I am.
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His greatest strength so far hasn't been his O, it has been his D. But that will be negated vs the bigger, stronger, more athletic, more skilled, more experienced PGs in the NBA. He'll be a quality defender, no doubt. But he won't be as successful on D in the NBA. He just won't. He'll be fine vs the backups he's likely to face regularly, but that is a hard thing to sell a fanbase on draft night.
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Next up is his team running ability. Which is outstanding. And also less and less valuable to NBA teams. They want the ball in the hands of their wings, who then hunt their own shots, while Bigs need to hit threes, rebound, and generally clean up around the rim and in the paint. A team running PG is not necessary for any of that. Sure, if you could put Tre Jones's mindset and skills into a body with Tre Duval's size and athleticism, teams would jump at that. Probably ahead of Zion or RJ. But Tre Jones doesn't have elite size or athleticism.
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Which leads to Tre's one glaring weakness. Shooting. His perimeter shooting percentages are not good. Especially given that his position and athleticism all but requires him to be a good shooter in the NBA. Tyus was a first round pick for a variety of reasons, but one of the most important reasons was his shooting. He was a good shooter, who made clutch 3s. Tre is far behind his bro at the same point. It makes his ability to really contribute on an NBA team, in the short run, iffy. I'm seeing a lot of very late first round predictions right now. Much of that has been knee jerk reactions by evaluators, based on what they've seen. Now that he's a serious first round possibility, NBA execs are starting to watch seriously, and offer evaluations. And they are worried about his shooting. I don't think he comes out if he's projected in the late first round. Tyus went slightly later than he was projected to go, and Tre might face that as well, because, again, size and athleticism. If he's projected in the late 20s, it might be too risky to chance. His position is too good at Duke to chance a fall to the second round.
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A huge part of his decision, and first round value, will be tied to team success. No one gives a fudge how the team does wrt Zion, RJ, and Cam. But a national title would mean a lot for Tre's value. Even so, look at Nova. They had an undersized couple of PGs that weren't super athletes that stuck around for 3-4 years each. Neither was the team runner or defender that Tre is, but both were far better shooters. Unless Tre's shooting trends up, NBA teams are going to be squeamish about drafting him. When you watch the NBA today, basically every player simply has to be a great perimeter shooter. What constitutes great varies by position, obviously, but the only rotation players that aren't good perimeter shooters are athletic bigs that defend and rebound at a high level.
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I think Tre will develop into a good shooter. But I'm not sure a team in the late first round, likely a playoff team, will draft him in the hopes/expectation of improvement in a few years. Those teams need help, albeit role player level help off the bench, IMMEDIATELY. They aren't worried about finding a kid who will be a top tier backup in 2-3 years. Playoff teams late in the first round primarily take athletic bigs, or shooters (be it at PG or Wing).
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Tre might not be as gone as we think. Sure, I think he'll go pro this year. But I'm a lot less sure now than I was at this same point in his bro's freshman season. It is all about the shooting.
