Post I made early January 2019 which seems to sum up what I saw yesterday

[eastbaycat99]

In early January 2019 I posted the following, and got a lot of pushback for it. Read it and see if it is applicable after the Pitt game last night:

"The long and short of it is that it appears to me that The Chris Collins' tenure as NU’s Coach is at a crossroads.

I am hard pressed to think of who could have had even a possibility of the success Collins has brought the Cats since his hiring. The Cats have had certifiably top tier coaches (Winters and Foster) who could not recruit players, a coach whose technical skill (Carmody) brought them to the edge of competitiveness, but no one has been able to bring in the talent Collins has, even with its degree of incompletion, and get to the tournament. I really feel that he brought, from a marketing perspective, a unique confluence of credibility (the long Duke connection and the association in the Chicago area with his Dad’s success) at a time the university was both enjoying some success in football and investing in facilities, making it all attractive to incoming players. He was the right person for a unique time.

Having said that, I think the limitations he has as a coach, both tactically and strategically, are becoming apparent. From a tactical perspective, he sometimes seems to lose control of situations and matchups as a game wears on, and the game slips away. From a strategic perspective, he has made some poor recruiting decisions."

I went on to say that I thought it was time to start considering a change in coaching, and that I had come to a point where I no longer watched the games live, but recorded them and fast forwarded through. The ball the team played wasn't compelling, fun, hopeful, or any other thing I could really get connected to.

I still feel that way.


"

 

[willycat]

In early January 2019 I posted the following, and got a lot of pushback for it. Read it and see if it is applicable after the Pitt game last night:

"The long and short of it is that it appears to me that The Chris Collins' tenure as NU’s Coach is at a crossroads.

I am hard pressed to think of who could have had even a possibility of the success Collins has brought the Cats since his hiring. The Cats have had certifiably top tier coaches (Winters and Foster) who could not recruit players, a coach whose technical skill (Carmody) brought them to the edge of competitiveness, but no one has been able to bring in the talent Collins has, even with its degree of incompletion, and get to the tournament. I really feel that he brought, from a marketing perspective, a unique confluence of credibility (the long Duke connection and the association in the Chicago area with his Dad’s success) at a time the university was both enjoying some success in football and investing in facilities, making it all attractive to incoming players. He was the right person for a unique time.

Having said that, I think the limitations he has as a coach, both tactically and strategically, are becoming apparent. From a tactical perspective, he sometimes seems to lose control of situations and matchups as a game wears on, and the game slips away. From a strategic perspective, he has made some poor recruiting decisions."

I went on to say that I thought it was time to start considering a change in coaching, and that I had come to a point where I no longer watched the games live, but recorded them and fast forwarded through. The ball the team played wasn't compelling, fun, hopeful, or any other thing I could really get connected to.

I still feel that way.


"

Poor recruiting decisions? Which ones? Who would you suggest and please don't say Moser.

 

[eastbaycat99]

I specifically cited deficiencies at point guard after BMac. If you’ve watched the games the last few years and don’t have some questions about the effectiveness of the staff’s evaluations of talent, I would suggest a visit to an optometrist. In a broader context, to me recruiting involves getting about 9 or 10 players with complementary skills that can execute the design you have for the team. Collins has not really brought in an effective power forward to rebound or slow down a team with two bigs. He has duplicated talent on the wing. I haven’t seen where he is able to put together a complete team. If you’ve seen one that he recruited exclusively (remembering that the tourney team had several holdovers) let me know.

 

[CatManTrue]

Also a bad tendency for running off players. I don’t care what anyone says - Benson would have helped us win some games last year.

Any thoughts on coaches that could get us back to point C?

 

[Purple Pile Driver]

Also a bad tendency for running off players. I don’t care what anyone says - Benson would have helped us win some games last year.

Any thoughts on coaches that could get us back to point C?

John Wooden

 

[eastbaycat99]

At the time, I had suggested Kyle Smith as an example, based on personal observation, but he has since been hired away by Washington State. My preference would be for the unicorn midmajor coach. I do think the inverse of Carmody would be a good paradigm: someone who emphasizes defense and ball handling, realizing the Cats’ shortest path to breaking .500 consistently in a conference as tough as the B1G comes from plains unwatchable games that have scores in the high 50’s to the low ‘60’s.

 

[charcat]

Best recruiter we have had in 40 years. Couple of goofy situations with guards that went sideways but on the upswing with a young team. Be patient

 

[freewillie07]

Not to say “wait till next year,” but...

NU will have a full roster of scholarship players for the first time in a while. And the roster should be balanced for a change.

Still think if nothing has changed by March 2022 you cut ties with Collins.

 

[Alan Smithee_rivals156293]

Not to say “wait till next year,” but...

NU will have a full roster of scholarship players for the first time in a while. And the roster should be balanced for a change.

Still think if nothing has changed by March 2022 you cut ties with Collins.

Will see what the new AD thinks.

 

[Purple Pile Driver]

Not to say “wait till next year,” but...

NU will have a full roster of scholarship players for the first time in a while. And the roster should be balanced for a change.

Still think if nothing has changed by March 2022 you cut ties with Collins.

Because NU has been a historical B Ball power!

 

[7th Cir. Cat]

Because NU has been a historical B Ball power!

Doesn't mean you stop trying to get better. Imagine if football had finally given up before 1995 (a real possibility) and now they're playing for their second BIG championship in three years. The NU job is 1,000 times more attractive now than it was 10-20 years ago. A lot of that is due to the competitive credibility established by Carmody (multiple bubble teams) and then Collins finally getting us over the finish line and proving that you can "win" at NU. It's possible, but I don't think CC is is the guy to bring us sustained competitiveness (too many X and O short comings and we don't have Duke talent to make up for it) but there are plenty coaches who would think about this job.

 

[Sec_112]

... there are plenty coaches who would think about this job.

That's the thing, 7th Cir. We need to get a little realistic here. There may be plenty of coaches who would consider this job, but are there plenty of - let's lower the bar and call them - "decent," Power-5 experienced candidates? I'd guess probably not.

And the B10 is not a place to grow into a job.

Well, there might be plenty of Power 5 experienced candidates if you overpay. But we already have a segment of fans bitching about a mid-level B10 salary.

So somebody will argue that we need to be smart and find the "right" inexperienced coach. Good luck with that. It's also an arguable step back from KO, Carmody and even more arguably, CC.

I'm sorry but this gig is obviously where careers go to die. It's pretty well established. Collins has been quoted that he had this discussion with his Dad before he took the gig. And now we have examples of three established coaches (we can call post-tourney Collins established, right) whose results were mediocre-at-best by true B10 standards.

There will not be a group of strong, experienced coaches in line to get this gig.

Also, my next question for the group ready to bounce Collins is how long do you give the next guy to get it done? I think there are two answers: 1) For the Power 5 established coach, and; 2) For the mid-major guy who you hope can grow.

One thing to consider: You have enough weaknesses in this program. You can't turn the job into a revolving door.

However, I agree with your first sentence, 7th Cir. You can't stop trying. Collins deserves much of this scrutiny. But due to so many of the challenges that the NU gig presents, if I were AD, I'd ride Collins out to his obvious end - not necessarily the end of that pretty stupid contract. I think Collins is early in his slide.

As an aside, the possibly new AD might be the hope for the kill Collins group. Fitz isn't going anywhere (and my guess is he's probably a major decisionmaker in the hire). So I assume the next guy will want the ability to put his stamp on things with basketball. Contract or not, I'd guess somebody from outside NU is probably not good news for Collins if he doesn't get his act together.

 

[GatoLouco]

That's the thing, 7th Cir. We need to get a little realistic here. There may be plenty of coaches who would consider this job, but are there plenty of - let's lower the bar and call them - "decent," Power-5 experienced candidates? I'd guess probably not.

And the B10 is not a place to grow into a job.

Well, there might be plenty of Power 5 experienced candidates if you overpay. But we already have a segment of fans bitching about a mid-level B10 salary.

So somebody will argue that we need to be smart and find the "right" inexperienced coach. Good luck with that. It's also an arguable step back from KO, Carmody and even more arguably, CC.

I'm sorry but this gig is obviously where careers go to die. It's pretty well established. Collins has been quoted that he had this discussion with his Dad before he took the gig. And now we have examples of three established coaches (we can call post-tourney Collins established, right) whose results were mediocre-at-best by true B10 standards.

There will not be a group of strong, experienced coaches in line to get this gig.

Also, my next question for the group ready to bounce Collins is how long do you give the next guy to get it done? I think there are two answers: 1) For the Power 5 established coach, and; 2) For the mid-major guy who you hope can grow.

One thing to consider: You have enough weaknesses in this program. You can't turn the job into a revolving door.

However, I agree with your first sentence, 7th Cir. You can't stop trying. Collins deserves much of this scrutiny. But due to so many of the challenges that the NU gig presents, if I were AD, I'd ride Collins out to his obvious end - not necessarily the end of that pretty stupid contract. I think Collins is early in his slide.

As an aside, the possibly new AD might be the hope for the kill Collins group. Fitz isn't going anywhere (and my guess is he's probably a major decisionmaker in the hire). So I assume the next guy will want the ability to put his stamp on things with basketball. Contract or not, I'd guess somebody from outside NU is probably not good news for Collins if he doesn't get his act together.

You give 5 to 7 years:
-year one is cleaning house, losing players, not getting much on recruiting trail, maybe do something in the transfer portal
-year two you should show your charm but let's give it as a year that you might have a not so good recruiting year
-year 3, if you do not have decent freshmen, you are starting to get in a lot of trouble
-year 5, you might not be good, but if you are not competitive and showing you show can't coach/develop, you should get the boot
-year 6, if you do not have decent seniors and a competitive group, you are closing to getting the boot
-year 7, if you have not brought in talent in year 3 or 4 that makes you a competitive program, you should get the boot.

We are a group of passionate fans, but we know nothing about coaches out there compared to the people close to the floor. You might be right that there are no established power coaches that would take the call but, if you have enough connections around the country, you should know, power established or not, where there is talent sitting his *** on the sideline.

 

[7th Cir. Cat]

That's the thing, 7th Cir. We need to get a little realistic here. There may be plenty of coaches who would consider this job, but are there plenty of - let's lower the bar and call them - "decent," Power-5 experienced candidates? I'd guess probably not.

And the B10 is not a place to grow into a job.

Well, there might be plenty of Power 5 experienced candidates if you overpay. But we already have a segment of fans bitching about a mid-level B10 salary.

So somebody will argue that we need to be smart and find the "right" inexperienced coach. Good luck with that. It's also an arguable step back from KO, Carmody and even more arguably, CC.

I'm sorry but this gig is obviously where careers go to die. It's pretty well established. Collins has been quoted that he had this discussion with his Dad before he took the gig. And now we have examples of three established coaches (we can call post-tourney Collins established, right) whose results were mediocre-at-best by true B10 standards.

There will not be a group of strong, experienced coaches in line to get this gig.

Also, my next question for the group ready to bounce Collins is how long do you give the next guy to get it done? I think there are two answers: 1) For the Power 5 established coach, and; 2) For the mid-major guy who you hope can grow.

One thing to consider: You have enough weaknesses in this program. You can't turn the job into a revolving door.

However, I agree with your first sentence, 7th Cir. You can't stop trying. Collins deserves much of this scrutiny. But due to so many of the challenges that the NU gig presents, if I were AD, I'd ride Collins out to his obvious end - not necessarily the end of that pretty stupid contract. I think Collins is early in his slide.

As an aside, the possibly new AD might be the hope for the kill Collins group. Fitz isn't going anywhere (and my guess is he's probably a major decisionmaker in the hire). So I assume the next guy will want the ability to put his stamp on things with basketball. Contract or not, I'd guess somebody from outside NU is probably not good news for Collins if he doesn't get his act together.

The Carmody and the Collins hires were both excellent (I still believe that) and at the time were widely heralded by the media as the right moves. That right there gives me faith that we can get respected coaches to consider the job. Two respected names took the job before the facilities upgrades and before the tourney run.

I agree that you are not getting a successful and established P5 head coaches to take the NU job. But there are strong head coaches from the next tier down who would probably love the chance to prove themselves in the Big 10. I also think so much of this depends on who fills the newly opened role of AD. That person may have personal connections to a particular school or conference that could convince someone who may have been out of our league to take the job.

And I don't think you ever have to worry about NU hoops being a revolving door job. Carmody got 13 years, this is Collins's 8th year. Two head coaches in 20+ years is outstanding stability for a P5 basketball program. It takes a lot to get canned from this place.

 

[Sec_112]

You make some good points, 7th Circuit. However, if the industry agrees both were excellent hires, it may also demonstrate the graveyard theory because two decent coaches really didn't excel ... so far

But I see your point. And the new AD adds a whole new layer.

 

[Purple Pile Driver]

That's the thing, 7th Cir. We need to get a little realistic here. There may be plenty of coaches who would consider this job, but are there plenty of - let's lower the bar and call them - "decent," Power-5 experienced candidates? I'd guess probably not.

And the B10 is not a place to grow into a job.

Well, there might be plenty of Power 5 experienced candidates if you overpay. But we already have a segment of fans bitching about a mid-level B10 salary.

So somebody will argue that we need to be smart and find the "right" inexperienced coach. Good luck with that. It's also an arguable step back from KO, Carmody and even more arguably, CC.

I'm sorry but this gig is obviously where careers go to die. It's pretty well established. Collins has been quoted that he had this discussion with his Dad before he took the gig. And now we have examples of three established coaches (we can call post-tourney Collins established, right) whose results were mediocre-at-best by true B10 standards.

There will not be a group of strong, experienced coaches in line to get this gig.

Also, my next question for the group ready to bounce Collins is how long do you give the next guy to get it done? I think there are two answers: 1) For the Power 5 established coach, and; 2) For the mid-major guy who you hope can grow.

One thing to consider: You have enough weaknesses in this program. You can't turn the job into a revolving door.

However, I agree with your first sentence, 7th Cir. You can't stop trying. Collins deserves much of this scrutiny. But due to so many of the challenges that the NU gig presents, if I were AD, I'd ride Collins out to his obvious end - not necessarily the end of that pretty stupid contract. I think Collins is early in his slide.

As an aside, the possibly new AD might be the hope for the kill Collins group. Fitz isn't going anywhere (and my guess is he's probably a major decisionmaker in the hire). So I assume the next guy will want the ability to put his stamp on things with basketball. Contract or not, I'd guess somebody from outside NU is probably not good news for Collins if he doesn't get his act together.

Excellent post. I wish I could like this more than once.

 

[Purple Pile Driver]

You make some good points, 7th Circuit. However, if the industry agrees both were excellent hires, it may also demonstrate the graveyard theory because two decent coaches really didn't excel ... so far

But I see your point. And the new AD adds a whole new layer.

It has been an absolute graveyard for Coaches.

 

[Styre]

The Carmody and the Collins hires were both excellent (I still believe that) and at the time were widely heralded by the media as the right moves. That right there gives me faith that we can get respected coaches to consider the job. Two respected names took the job before the facilities upgrades and before the tourney run.

Exactly. With our garbage facilities and complete lack of history, we hired (on extremely short notice) the coach with the highest career winning percentage in the history of the Ivy League. Then, several years later, with slightly-better-but-still-garbage facilities and a slightly-better-but-still-lacking history, we hired the top assistant away from the most consistently successful program in all of Division I. Today, we have legitimately great facilities and a significantly-improved-but-still-lacking history, and suddenly nobody is going to want to coach here? I don't buy it.

(But again, it's a moot point, since Collins isn't going anywhere)

 

[rwhitney014]

Exactly. With our garbage facilities and complete lack of history, we hired (on extremely short notice) the coach with the highest career winning percentage in the history of the Ivy League. Then, several years later, with slightly-better-but-still-garbage facilities and a slightly-better-but-still-lacking history, we hired the top assistant away from the most consistently successful program in all of Division I. Today, we have legitimately great facilities and a significantly-improved-but-still-lacking history, and suddenly nobody is going to want to coach here? I don't buy it.

(But again, it's a moot point, since Collins isn't going anywhere)

While the general populace would point to the tourney appearance as the biggest differentiator whenever the next time we hire a HC is, the new facilities dwarf it by far.

One tourney appearance 4 seasons ago is ancient history in major college sports. The facilities - gameday, practice, and on-campus - are permanent. They are the everyday existence of coaches and players in the program. They matter a lot more than whether at one point one NU team made it into the field, which only matters to a new coach to the extent he doesn't have to answer questions about whether this will be the year.

That Collins hasn't been able to leverage them yet is the darkest mark in his column. A new AD is bad news for him; hopefully he steps it up this season. Big opportunity on Sunday.

EDIT: I wanted to quantify my "ancient history" crack on the post above. From that tournament field, if I'm counting right, there were 45 teams from conferences that received more than one bid. Of those 45, 14 no longer have the same head coach. That's 31% turnover.

Moreover the Mountain West and Missouri Valley were single-bid leagues that year, but they often place multiple teams in the field. Both of those coaches are no longer with their teams. That would bump turnover among what I would consider to be non-low-majors to 34%. Obviously, each year Collins sticks around, these numbers will grow more, and the effect of having made the tournament the one time will be less and less important to a theoretical incoming coach.