Fearless Forecast: Northwestern vs. ULM
It’s Homecoming weekend and Northwestern is set to host ULM at Martin Stadium at 2:30 pm Central time. It’s the Wildcats’ fourth straight home game after opening their season on the road, and it marks their last non-conference matchup of the season.
Northwestern (2-2, 1-1 Big Ten) comes into this game after eking out a 17-14 win over winless UCLA, while ULM (3-1, 1-0 Sun Belt) is flying high after a 28-16 win over Arkansas State, their first over the Red Wolves in the Rice Bowl Rivalry since 2009.
The Wildcats are favored for the second straight game by BetMGM; this week they are 11.5-point favorites. Head coach David Braun is undefeated at home against Group of Six or FCS opponents and will look to extend that winning streak on Saturday.
Can Northwestern start 3-2 for just the second time since 2016? Or will the Warhawks spoil Homecoming with an upset?
WildcatReport’s staff weighs in with our picks.
MORE FROM ULM WEEK: Behind Enemy Lines: ULM | Banner day vs. UCLA leaves ‘The Beast’, Caleb Komolafe, hungry for more | Notebook: Braun says Northwestern has ‘a lot of work to do’
Matt Shelton (3-1)
These two teams are hard to read at this point in the season. After the opening shock at Tulane, the Wildcats have mostly gone as expected. They handled business vs. Western Illinois, got shellacked by Oregon, then beat UCLA. The Warhawks are similar. They’ve won their three games outside the Power Four, and got demolished, 73-0, at Alabama. So there’s some uncertainty around both programs.
Both teams pride themselves on the run, and run defense: ULM is 16th in the FBS in rushing defense; even after playing Alabama they are allowing just 84.5 yards per game. The Wildcats have been a running force since Tulane, averaging 219 yards in their last three contests.
I think the Power Four edge in the trenches gives Northwestern’s stat the staying power and they grind down the Warhawks, though lack of receiver depth and explosive playmakers after their running backs and receiver Griffin Wilde keeps the overall score low.
Prediction: Northwestern 24, ULM 14
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Louie Vaccher (3-1)
It’s difficult to get a feel for how this first-ever matchup between the Wildcats and Warhawks will go down.
The Wildcats’ two wins came at the expense of Western Illinois, from the FCS, and UCLA, possibly the worst program in the FBS, by just three points. They are also 0-1 against the Group of Six after getting drubbed by Tulane. ULM got engulfed by the Crimson Tide, but we all know that Northwestern ain’t Bama. The Warhawks are 3-0 in their other games, but the combined record of that trio is 2-13.
The key for Northwestern will be running the football. The Wildcats should be able to control the line of scrimmage and the clock, and just wear down ULM’s defense. If that doesn’t happen, though, things could get tight. But either way, I don’t think the Warhawks will be able to get much going against Northwestern’s defense.
Prediction: Northwestern 23, ULM 14
