Potential Bowl Opponents

[Tskware]

Now that we are officially "in", I took a peak at the standings of the conferences we are most likely to be matched up with. (I am assuming we will not be going to Birmingham, don't know if the SEC will even have enough teams eligible to fill that bowl, especially if Miss State beats Ole Miss)

Most likely we will be matched up with an ACC team in MCB or Belk, or a Big 10 team in MCB, TaxSlayer (I think)

Anyway:

ACC - Wake is 6-5 and my belief is will get picked for Belk, due to local team, if not, then Pitt and Ga Tech are both 7-4 and Tech especially would be a short drive to Charlotte or Nashville.

Big 10 - Indiana and Northwestern are both 5-6 but should be pretty big favorites to win next week (Purdue and Illinois). Maryland has 5 wins and still plays Rutgers, a near certain W for Md.

Big 12 - Kansas State and Baylor are both 6-4, and TCU is 5-5 but likely to pick up at least one more win. I honestly think Texas will turn down a bowl bid under the current circumstances, assuming they beat TCU in their last game. K State in the Liberty or Independence might be a decent matchup

UK vs. Indiana would seem to be the most attractive matchup of all the above possibilities, either in MCB or in TaxSlayer (just don't think that bowl will pick two 6-6 teams though, although it did match Ohio State and Florida a few years ago who each were 6-6). My personal preference would be Wake Forest in the Belk Bowl, but could see that bowl taking South Carolina instead.

TaxSlayer has picked two 6-6 SEC teams in last five years (Tennessee and Florida) plus several 7-5 Big 10 teams, so maybe UK has better chance than I think. Obviously, what we do vs. Louisville and what South Carolina does against Clemson and what Georgia does against Ga Tech could change the pecking order substantially.

Worst case scenario would be somehow falling to Birmingham and having to play a really good AAC team (Houston???)

 

[ukalum1988]

Good post. Hopefully we can pull an upset next week and improve our standing for a better bowl. I love my Cats, but I can't see spending Christmas in Shreveport.

 

[GGCAT]

I believe Vandy's win does shake up the pecking order (a bit) and definitely takes Shreveport out of the equation for us.

Assuming Ole Miss gets bowl eligible, that's their destination (or Birmingham) if SEC fills all their slots.

So that said if you start plugging teams in to potential spots, still don't see our ceiling being higher than Memphis, all the teams above us would most likely have 8+ wins and no bowl is taking a 6 over an 8.

UNLESS a 3 loss SEC team gets chosen for the Orange Bowl, then you can shift most everyone from say LSU down, up one level

Alabama Final Four
Florida Sugar Bowl
Tennessee Citrus Bowl
LSU Outback Bowl
Auburn Tax Slayer Bowl
Texas A&M Texas Bowl
Arkansas Music City Bowl
Kentucky Liberty Bowl
South Carolina Belk Bowl
Ole Miss Birmingham Bowl
Vanderbilt Independence Bowl (based on APR?)

As much as I would like to go to Florida for the Tax Slayer don't see that happening.

So Baylor, TCU, or K-State in Memphis....I'm down with that.


EDIT: Whoops, Forgot Georgia on the list so that slides us back down into Birmingham / Belk options and really have to think Belk takes USC.....so really nothing has changed....crap.

 

[Tskware]

^
I am OK with the Liberty as well, so long as it is where we legitimately get selected, and not accept a trip to beautiful downtown Memphis ( :thumbsdown: )just to pander to the 1500 or so basketball fans who were planning on going to Oxford the day before. Geez, surely even MB should realize how tone deaf that would sound to the Kentucky football fans.

 

[Robcatt24]

Bowl projections I've seen this morning include Texas, UCLA, and Houston as opponents.

Would love to see the Cats play Texas or UCLA.

 

[Saguaro Cat]

Vs

 

[GGCAT]

I believe Vandy's win does shake up the pecking order (a bit) and definitely takes Shreveport out of the equation for us.

Assuming Ole Miss gets bowl eligible, that's their destination (or Birmingham) if SEC fills all their slots.

So that said if you start plugging teams in to potential spots, still don't see our ceiling being higher than Memphis, all the teams above us would most likely have 8+ wins and no bowl is taking a 6 over an 8.

UNLESS a 3 loss SEC team gets chosen for the Orange Bowl, then you can shift most everyone from say LSU down, up one level

Alabama Final Four
Florida Sugar Bowl
Tennessee Citrus Bowl
LSU Outback Bowl
Auburn Tax Slayer Bowl
Texas A&M Texas Bowl
Arkansas Music City Bowl
Kentucky Liberty Bowl
South Carolina Belk Bowl
Ole Miss Birmingham Bowl
Vanderbilt Independence Bowl (based on APR?)

As much as I would like to go to Florida for the Tax Slayer don't see that happening.

So Baylor, TCU, or K-State in Memphis....I'm down with that.


EDIT: Whoops, Forgot Georgia on the list so that slides us back down into Birmingham / Belk options and really have to think Belk takes USC.....so really nothing has changed....crap.

Okay....guess I should really take a deeper look at the standings, didn't dawn on me LSU could finish with only 6 wins? Could a loss to A&M knock the Tigers all the way down to Shreveport?

Would be ideal for that bowl considering the location and day that its happening.

 

[GGCAT]

Bowl projections I've seen this morning include Texas, UCLA, and Houston as opponents.

Would love to see the Cats play Texas or UCLA.

What possible bowl could we play UCLA in? No Pac 10 tie ins, so they would be a fill in for Shreveport?

 

[Robcatt24]

What possible bowl could we play UCLA in? No Pac 10 tie ins, so they would be a fill in for Shreveport?

Here ya go. UCLA would get in on APR and I'm assuming this particular bowl projection figures not enough ACC teams get eligible.

http://collegefootballnews.com/2016/college-football-playoff-bowl-projections-after-week-12

 

[Los Gatos]

With Houston projected to the Birmingham Bowl, I'd prefer to go elsewhere.

 

[Stenchymouse]

Houston would hurt us!

We need to be playing somebody like Wake.

 

[weused2luvhim2]

We are going to the Jim Bob's Towing and Title loans bowl in Tywhoppety, Ky.

 

[BlueRunner11]

With Houston projected to the Birmingham Bowl, I'd prefer to go elsewhere.

Finishing the year with UL and Houston would be UGLY.

 

[JDHoss]

Houston would hurt us!

We need to be playing somebody like Wake.

Depends....you mean the Houston team that beat OU and UaVel....or the Houston team that got routed by SMU, gave up 46 to Navy in a loss, gave up 31 to Tulsa and stopped Tulsa on the 1 inch line on the game's final play, the team that had a mad rally to win 30-24 over UCF, or the Houston team that struggled to beat a really bad Tulane team 30-18? This is also a Houston team that will likely be without a head coach for their bowl game.

 

[Grumpyolddawg]

Now that we are officially "in", I took a peak at the standings of the conferences we are most likely to be matched up with. (I am assuming we will not be going to Birmingham, don't know if the SEC will even have enough teams eligible to fill that bowl, especially if Miss State beats Ole Miss)

Most likely we will be matched up with an ACC team in MCB or Belk, or a Big 10 team in MCB, TaxSlayer (I think)

Anyway:

ACC - Wake is 6-5 and my belief is will get picked for Belk, due to local team, if not, then Pitt and Ga Tech are both 7-4 and Tech especially would be a short drive to Charlotte or Nashville.

Big 10 - Indiana and Northwestern are both 5-6 but should be pretty big favorites to win next week (Purdue and Illinois). Maryland has 5 wins and still plays Rutgers, a near certain W for Md.

Big 12 - Kansas State and Baylor are both 6-4, and TCU is 5-5 but likely to pick up at least one more win. I honestly think Texas will turn down a bowl bid under the current circumstances, assuming they beat TCU in their last game. K State in the Liberty or Independence might be a decent matchup

UK vs. Indiana would seem to be the most attractive matchup of all the above possibilities, either in MCB or in TaxSlayer (just don't think that bowl will pick two 6-6 teams though, although it did match Ohio State and Florida a few years ago who each were 6-6). My personal preference would be Wake Forest in the Belk Bowl, but could see that bowl taking South Carolina instead.

TaxSlayer has picked two 6-6 SEC teams in last five years (Tennessee and Florida) plus several 7-5 Big 10 teams, so maybe UK has better chance than I think. Obviously, what we do vs. Louisville and what South Carolina does against Clemson and what Georgia does against Ga Tech could change the pecking order substantially.

Worst case scenario would be somehow falling to Birmingham and having to play a really good AAC team (Houston???)

There could be several 6-6 teams this year, UK, USC, Vandy, Ole Miss all have a shot at 6-6 right now. So if they stick to the norm there is a real chance some SEC teams get overmatched this season. Only going to be a couple with more than 8 wins after Bama heads to the playoffs. UT could end up in the Sugar Bowl against a very good team. UF, UT, UGA are the teams in the east with more than 6 wins right now. In the West they have Bama, LSU, Arky, AU and A&M. So the 6 win teams will likely get the 8-12 spots, whichever they are. I think we are looking at Music City.

 

[ktbug]

Want a Big 10 or Acc team.

 

[Grumpyolddawg]

Depends....you mean the Houston team that beat OU and UaVel....or the Houston team that got routed by SMU, gave up 46 to Navy in a loss, gave up 31 to Tulsa and stopped Tulsa on the 1 inch line on the game's final play, the team that had a mad rally to win 30-24 over UCF, or the Houston team that struggled to beat a really bad Tulane team 30-18? This is also a Houston team that will likely be without a head coach for their bowl game.

But why risk playing them, could get the one that dismantled Louisville and OU or the one who lost to Navy. GT wouldn't be a great matchup either, I hate playing them and their cut blocking. DL more concerned about their knees than making plays.

 

[Mr Schwump]

There could be several 6-6 teams this year, UK, USC, Vandy, Ole Miss all have a shot at 6-6 right now. So if they stick to the norm there is a real chance some SEC teams get overmatched this season. Only going to be a couple with more than 8 wins after Bama heads to the playoffs. UT could end up in the Sugar Bowl against a very good team. UF, UT, UGA are the teams in the east with more than 6 wins right now. In the West they have Bama, LSU, Arky, AU and A&M. So the 6 win teams will likely get the 8-12 spots, whichever they are. I think we are looking at Music City.

Just don't see UT getting a Sugar bid ahead of Texas A&M, who beat them, or Auburn. That would be an inexplicable gift.

 

[KyCatFan1]

I mentioned this in another thread but I think everyone thought I was crazy suggesting it. Here is how it is supposed to work for selecting teams to the bowls.

For the 2016 bowl season, the SEC champ will be placed in the Sugar Bowl, unless selected to the CFP, at which point the Sugar Bowl will select a replacement from the remaining SEC teams. After the Sugar Bowl has been filled, the Citrus Bowl gets the first pick of the remaining SEC teams.

Six other SEC bowls, instead of being ranked in a selection hierarchy, are put into a pool where every bowl has equal selection status. The bowls in this pool—the Outback Bowl, TaxSlayer Bowl, Music City Bowl, Texas Bowl, Belk Bowl and Liberty—are filled by the SEC in conjuncture with the individual bowls and schools.

After the Pool of Six bowls are filled, the Birmingham bowl has the first selection of the remaining SEC schools, followed by the Independence bowl.

According to this, it will be Alabama in the playoffs and then you have possibly Florida and Auburn (just using them as an example) in the Sugar and Citrus. That makes the 4th thru the 9th teams to be in the pool group of bowls. These are all equal and they can pick who they want and not have to go in order if I am understanding it right. Maybe they draw each bowl out of a hat and they pick first and continue until all bowls are filled.

Right now we should be in the pool group and that means we could potentially be selected by any of them. With the SEC down, they may pick a lot of games by team location to fill them better or pick teams they feel will bring a lot of fans. They know we brought a ton of fans to the Outback in the past and we were picked over a Georgia team with 1 more win than us. So we could potentially get a Florida bowl or maybe the MCB since it is the best location bowl and I believe that Nashville loves Wildcat fans.

I think most people are just assuming we will get picked for the worst bowl possible and I just don't think that is the case. It will be interesting to see how the bowls end up picking schools. I think we are safe from getting the Birmingham or Independence Bowls. So the worst possible bowl for us will either be the Belk or Liberty in my opinion, but I still am holding out hope for better.

 

[Stenchymouse]

Depends....you mean the Houston team that beat OU and UaVel....or the Houston team that got routed by SMU, gave up 46 to Navy in a loss, gave up 31 to Tulsa and stopped Tulsa on the 1 inch line on the game's final play, the team that had a mad rally to win 30-24 over UCF, or the Houston team that struggled to beat a really bad Tulane team 30-18? This is also a Houston team that will likely be without a head coach for their bowl game.

Football has a lot to do with matchups, and their mobile QB and the way they spread the field...

I just think it's a bad matchup for us.

 

[Black Diamond Cat]

I could see UK against Indiana in the MCB, and I could see us vs WF in the Belk Bowl. The maybe most intriguing match up would be UK vs Kansas State in the Liberty Bowl !

 

[Bluetick2100]

If $$$$$ rules, UK vs Indiana in Nashville would make the most sense, pun intended.

 

[Hjack]

Am I on the wrong board???? We are discussing which bowl our football team will be invited to????[banana]

Seems like it has been an awful long time since that happened. :cool2:

 

[Grumpyolddawg]

Just don't see UT getting a Sugar bid ahead of Texas A&M, who beat them, or Auburn. That would be an inexplicable gift.

I don't either, just what I heard, but AU is looking at 4 losses pretty hard as is A&M. Florida may end up with it but a pretty good chance they end up with 4 losses too with FSU and Bama left. AU is pretty bad offensively, when Gus takes over playcalling the are alot worse than bad. To be honest not a team in the SEC who deserves to get one of those big bowls, worst year for the conference in a long time.



Bowl season will get messy, Sugar may not have a choice of anyone with less than 4 losses, Vandy beats UT, LSU beats A*M and neither would be monster upsets, UF loses to FSU and Bama, all end up with 4 losses. and playing the number 2 team from the Big12. Heck we could end up with 4 losses and we have no business being in the Sugar Bowl, Bowl season could be a bad one for the SEC this year, hope not but most will be playing teams with better records.

 

[STUCKNBIG10]

Just don't see UT getting a Sugar bid ahead of Texas A&M, who beat them, or Auburn. That would be an inexplicable gift.

They're likely to be the only 9-win SEC team outside of Bama. If they beat Vandy and A&M / UF lose this weekend, they're going to New Orleans.

 

[reflaine]

Would think Arkansas to liberty against a big 12 opponent would fit in more geographically and us in music city against a big ten would also make more sense. I think it's either Birmingham or Nashville.

Could see music city pulling a Kentucky Indiana game and liberty a Arkansas Texas/kstate game for fan interest.

Belk could take us, but USC jr that close is hard to beat. (Same with us in Nashville).

Remember the group of six has no set picking order so any of those could theoretically be possible. (Don't see outback because of profile or Texas bowl because of travel and think that will be an sec west team.

 

[Tskware]

Doubt that Kansas State gets invite to Liberty two years in a row

My guess is UK v. K State in Independence; UK v. Indiana in MCB; UK v. Wake in Belk

 

[Nuke99m.]

When do the invites to the smaller bowls come out? Are they all announced after the big 4? It's been so long since I have been interested.

 

[KyCatFan1]

Pretty sure that South Carolina is going to be locked out of the 6 game pool if you go by SEC record. If Arkansas wins at Missouri, then South Carolina competes with Ole Miss and Vanderbilt for the last 2 bowls (Birmingham and Independence). Unless the SEC ignores their own rules for picking the bowl order. The worst thing that can happen is for South Carolina to upset Clemson this weekend and us to lose. That would give them one more total win than us, but 1 less SEC win. That might allow them to pick South Carolina ahead of us.

As of today, I think the bowls look like this for butts in seats.

Playoff Alabama
Sugar Florida
Citrus Auburn
Texas Texas A&M
MCB Kentucky
Liberty Arkansas
TaxSlayer Tennessee
Outback LSU
Belk Georgia
Birmingham South Carolina
Independence Ole Miss or Vandy

I think this might be the best order geographically while also trying to not send the same team to the same bowl 2 years in a row (except for Arkansas). After the games this weekend it could mix it up a bit. If Auburn loses and Texas A&M wins then A&M moves up to Citrus. I think that moves Auburn to Outback and LSU to Texas.

I think the East teams might be set regardless of what happens this weekend. Florida will be in the SEC Championship and win or lose I don't think they should be punished and dropped out of the Sugar. They may end up with one less win than Tennessee, but they also only got to play 11 games. I could be wrong on this and maybe you just swap Tennessee and Florida bowl games.

I tried to look at what the so called experts had to say about us and I wonder if they even understand how the selections work this year. Most keep projecting us in Birmingham and South Carolina to Belk. I could see it if those two bowls were on the same level of picking priority, but they're not. Birmingham is in the second tier and we project to be the last team in the first tier with more SEC wins and a head to head win over South Carolina. Either they are confused or I am.

 

[maysvilleky]

I think BC pulls the upset next week vs WF and gets bowl eligible. UK vs BC has a storyline. I can see that happening.

 

[The_Godfather_rivals]

I think BC pulls the upset next week vs WF and gets bowl eligible. UK vs BC has a storyline. I can see that happening.

I just don't see that story being interesting to anyone beyond those that would already be watching that game.

I agree with the notion that UK should have earned a selection ahead of South Carolina. We have a better SEC record and beat them head to head.

 

[Snowcats86]

I think it will be between Music City, Liberty or Belk- all of which would be a good choice. If we upset UofL then I think the Music City is all but locked up but if not then probably more likely Liberty or Belk. I think we would have a good showing at any of these 3 but i would love to see us vs IU (my wife is an IU grad) in the Music City. We would have a ton of fans and it would be a fun game with plenty of offense.

 

[GGCAT]

Just some random observations from reading what others have had to say

• Don't think Arkansas and K-State will be matched up for 2nd year in a row in Liberty
• Tennessee will benefit by not playing in SECCG and possibly get Sugar as only 9 win team
• Florida like most SECCG losers will get "punished" for losing but shouldn't drop farther than Outback as Gator fans are notorious for not traveling to bowls that are outside the state borders.
• Don't think the conference would put a potentially 6 win LSU team in the Outback Bowl, more likely drops all the way to Independence.
• Texas A&M would get 2nd biggest boost to Tennessee by winning v LSU, possibly Citrus?
• If that happens slot Arkansas into the Texas Bowl
• Still don't believe our ceiling is any higher than Liberty, but an upset on Saturday would at least bring MCB into the equation.

 

[Grumpyolddawg]

Pretty sure that South Carolina is going to be locked out of the 6 game pool if you go by SEC record. If Arkansas wins at Missouri, then South Carolina competes with Ole Miss and Vanderbilt for the last 2 bowls (Birmingham and Independence). Unless the SEC ignores their own rules for picking the bowl order. The worst thing that can happen is for South Carolina to upset Clemson this weekend and us to lose. That would give them one more total win than us, but 1 less SEC win. That might allow them to pick South Carolina ahead of us.

As of today, I think the bowls look like this for butts in seats.

Playoff Alabama
Sugar Florida
Citrus Auburn
Texas Texas A&M
MCB Kentucky
Liberty Arkansas
TaxSlayer Tennessee
Outback LSU
Belk Georgia
Birmingham South Carolina
Independence Ole Miss or Vandy

I think this might be the best order geographically while also trying to not send the same team to the same bowl 2 years in a row (except for Arkansas). After the games this weekend it could mix it up a bit. If Auburn loses and Texas A&M wins then A&M moves up to Citrus. I think that moves Auburn to Outback and LSU to Texas.

I think the East teams might be set regardless of what happens this weekend. Florida will be in the SEC Championship and win or lose I don't think they should be punished and dropped out of the Sugar. They may end up with one less win than Tennessee, but they also only got to play 11 games. I could be wrong on this and maybe you just swap Tennessee and Florida bowl games.

I tried to look at what the so called experts had to say about us and I wonder if they even understand how the selections work this year. Most keep projecting us in Birmingham and South Carolina to Belk. I could see it if those two bowls were on the same level of picking priority, but they're not. Birmingham is in the second tier and we project to be the last team in the first tier with more SEC wins and a head to head win over South Carolina. Either they are confused or I am.

Of the 4 ACC/SEC matchups this weekend I think UGA has the best chance to win because Tech sucks, UF next while UK and USC would be huge upsets. A&M plays LSU, big game and A&M winning might put them in the Sugar at 9-3 and likely the highest ranked team and push LSU to 7-5. These results would put UGA 8-4, UF 10-2 or 9-3 and UK and USC at 7-5 or 6-6. I don't think Vandy beats UT and OM and St. is a toss up. A St win puts the SEC with 10 bowl eligible teams, with Vandy having a shot to get in as a 5 win team

So depending on outcomes of this weekend I see this.

Playoff - Bama
Sugar - A&M or UF

Citrus - A&M or UT
Texas - LSU or Arky
MC - UK, USC or OM
Liberty - LSU or Arky
Taxslayer - UT or UF
Outback - UGA or AU
Belk - UGA or AU
Birmingham - UK. USC or OM
Indepentence - UK, USC or OM.

 

[lex cath]

Birmingham baby :cheers2: easy drive :sunglasses:

 

[David Rice]

Does Bill Synder still coach Kansas State?

 

[Nuke99m.]

I would rather play on a Friday in Liberty or Music City. Thursday in B-ham is tough because that is two days off work.

 

[dgtatu01]

It would be cool to play Indiana. It would also be high scoring since both teams run the matador defense.

 

[Mr Schwump]

Does Bill Synder still coach Kansas State?

Yes.

 

[Mojocat_rivals48469]

I wonder if everyone is overstating LSU's bowl prospects. They are a hot mess right now, their fan base is likely (= a guess) disillusioned, they likely won't have a strong showing, just want the year overwith and get on with hiring the new coach. The athletics department is supposedly completely dysfunctional right now (per SI story this morning), the AD has pissed everyone off in the league. I don't know, could see them getting stuck in Shreveport pretty easily......