What defines a season? The press seem to think it is CG's week one loss to PR. Just about every news article written since then has had the above phrase or something similar. I am not complaining in fact in think it's great. I can't speak for all the boys, but the few that I do talk to tell me it is just motivation for them.
Prairie Ridge's 26-14 Week 1 victory
- Thread starter CG Fan
- Start date
You really need to take it one week at a time. Worry about DeKalb first.
Just another example of the complete lack of respect shown to C-G over the years. It truly is a shame.
I don't think it's lack of respect. It's just that PR is so damn good and everyone believes they will run the table. This is coming from a CG homer. I do believe that if they meet in the semis, it will be a hell of a game and PR won't roll like they have over everyone else. But, let's focus on DeKalb first. My lack of respect is targeted at the football "expert" at the Bright One. CG finally cracked her top 25 this week and she put Huntley at 13 after being NR previously. Because they beat Fremd? Please.
What defines a season? Statistically speaking, for a team playing in a conference the level of the Fox Valley Conference, the season is defined by whether or not the team's scoring margin exceeds 37.5 points per game. The Fox Valley Conference, as currently comprised, has won two state football championships in the last 20 years. Conference teams have also made it to the semifinals five times in the last five years. This makes it a mid-level conference. In order to be a solid favorite for winning a state championship from a mid-level conference, history has shown the team needs to have a regular season scoring margin greater than 37-1/2 points per game. As an example, that is what defined Rockford Boylan's back-to-back championships in 2010 and 2011, and Springfield Sacred Heart-Griffin's back-to-back championships in 2013 and 2014. Prairie Ridge's regular season scoring margin was a positive 40.2 points per game this year, which exceeds the required threshold for being a solid championship favorite. Cary-Grove's scoring margin was an excellent 32.8 points per game, but does not exceed the threshold. The two scoring margins suggest Prairie Ridge is about 7-1/2 points better than Cary-Grove this year, which translates to roughly a 70% chance of winning a game between the two teams. The Fox Valley Conference has looked outstanding in the playoffs so far this year, so I do expect the two teams to get past their quarterfinal opponents and meet in the semis. Weather, turnovers, and the pressure on Prairie Ridge knowing they are expected to win that game (these are only high school kids after all) could cause the mild upset, but I expect Prairie Ridge will win the game and go on to beat Sacred Heart-Griffin in the championship game.
I'm sure if CG wouldn't have put in their 2nd string in the 3rd quarter and didn't have a running clock, they would have easily met that scoring margin. That's a weak position.
Almost every coach puts his second string into the game when a running clock is initiated in the third quarter. Consequently, what usually determines whether or not a team reaches the 37.5 point threshold is how many points it scores in the first half of games and how well it plays in the one or two relatively close games it has during an excellent season. The 37.5 point threshold is not infallible, but history has demonstrated it is highly predictive. Teams from top level conferences do not need to reach that threshold to be considered championship favorites, but the Fox Valley Conference does not yet meet the criteria for a top level conference. It seems to be on its way though. It has had great playoff results so far this year. Just as a point of reference, the Du Page Valley Conference has won eight state championships in the last 20 years and has placed five different teams into the semifinals within the past five seasons. Its last place team beat DeKalb this year, which is one reason I'm pretty sure Cary-Grove will handle DeKalb. The Blue Division of the Chicago Catholic League (which is having a down year) has won 15 state championships in the last 20 years and has placed four different teams into the semifinals a total of nine times in the last five years. Those are what top-level conferences look like. I will say both Prairie Ridge and Cary-Grove are top-level programs. I have Cary-Grove at #7 and Prairie Ridge at #14 as programs over the last five years. It is just that the remainder of the conference has not been that good and therefore those two teams should dominate the competition if they are having an excellent season. They did dominate this year and they are having excellent seasons.
I sure hope the Cary grove coaches and players are paying more attention to DeKalb than the posters on this board are.
They are really good and if Cary posters think that this will be a walk in the park to the semis they are fooling themselves.
Familiarize yourself with the name Cole Tucker Cary fans.
They are really good and if Cary posters think that this will be a walk in the park to the semis they are fooling themselves.
Familiarize yourself with the name Cole Tucker Cary fans.
Of Course they are prepping for Dekalb they don't take any game for granted.
This string was not intended to be a discussion for a future matchup but more of hey NW Herald you don't need to put in every CG article that we lost to PR week one. It is not what defines CG's season. FYI PR lost to CG week one last year, and it was never mentioned again.
This string was not intended to be a discussion for a future matchup but more of hey NW Herald you don't need to put in every CG article that we lost to PR week one. It is not what defines CG's season. FYI PR lost to CG week one last year, and it was never mentioned again.
