Probabilities of winning state title:

[GilliamRatings]

Using the VHSL-Reference system and some elementary probability:

24.73% Ocean Lakes (3:1)
18.50% Oscar Smith (4:1)
15.40% Centreville (5:1)
15.37% Westfield (6:1)
10.16% Lake Braddock (9:1)
9.51% Battlefield (10:1)
5.19% Colonial Forge (18:1)
1.13% James River (87:1)