Probabilities of winning state title

[GilliamRatings]

Using VHSL-Reference ratings and some elementary probability.

17.94% Tuscarora (5:1)
15.42% Massaponax (5:1)
15.19% Hermitage (6:1)
15.04% L.C. Bird (6:1)
13.84% Salem (6:1)
9.50% Stone Bridge (10:1)
7.18% Norview (13:1)
5.88% Broad Run (16:1)

You really will rarely ever see it this close.

 

[GilliamRatings]

Due to the quirks of the seeds Massaponax has a better chance of winning title than Bird or Hermitage who both have higher ratings than they do.

The reason for this is simple to understand. Massaponax has a better chance (55%) of advancing to second round than Bird or Hermitage who vhsl-reference has in a virtual tie (50% chance for each to win). This is just enough for them hold their edge.

The winner of Bird Hermitage will likely be the favorite once the final four is decided (assuming they get a nice little ratings boost from a win over such a highly rated opponent).