Prospects for SEC finish.....

[thekimmer]

I haven't really studied this but from a cursory glance it would appear we don't really have a reasonable path to win the overall conference title despite winning 5 of 6 series to date. I say this because we would have to overtake three teams who still have to play each other in a few instances so one of the teams will come out good in those no matter what. I think the schedule is favorable for us to have a reasonable chance to catch TAM for at least a tie for the west although they do own the tiebreaker against us.

The deciding factor in the SEC so far this season has been sweeps. We have won 5 of 6 series but swept none. The SEC leader USC has only won 4 of 6 but swept all four series wins. Second place UF has also only won 4 of 6 series but swept 3. Only TAM has matched our record winning 5 of 6 series and like us were swept in their one series loss but they did manage to sweep 1...unfortunately it was us.

Ultimately, we just have to keep our heads down and worry about the opponent on the field but who knows, if we can turn the tables and start putting some 3-0s on the board ourselves and these other teams go 2-1, 1-2 we might just have an outside shot.

 

[patdog]

Warren Nolan projects:

UF - 22-8
USC - 21-9
A&M - 20-10
MSU - 19-11
UM - 18-12
LSU - 16-14
Vandy - 16-14
UK - 16-14

 

[MSUDC11]

Warren Nolan projects:

UF - 22-8
USC - 21-9
A&M - 20-10
MSU - 19-11
UM - 18-12
LSU - 16-14
Vandy - 16-14
UK - 16-14

I will be shocked if Ole Miss finishes with 18 conference wins.

They close with LSU, @Georgia, Kentucky, and @A&M. I would be less surprised to see them go 4-8 than 8-4.

Just not sure they're really all that good. The early season series win against Louisville is nice, but who have they beaten otherwise? 8 of the 10 conference wins are against UT, Arkansas, and Auburn.

Kudos to them for sweeping, but I'm still not blown away at all.

 

[57stratdawg]

I agree. I also think A&M is going to have a tough time getting to 20. They have @ Ark, Vandy, @ USC, and OM left.

 

[patdog]

I think the Bears wind up with 16-17 wins. And I think A&M gets to 20 pretty easily. 19 looks about right for us.

 

[thekimmer]

Interesting....

Warren Nolan projects:

UF - 22-8
USC - 21-9
A&M - 20-10
MSU - 19-11
UM - 18-12
LSU - 16-14
Vandy - 16-14
UK - 16-14

Based on our being favored in the remaining 4 series it appears he expects us to win 2 of 3 in three with a sweep somewhere in the mix. I think that is reasonable based on our sunday struggles but we have the potential to do much better.

The UM prediction does not make sense. He's saying that they will win just one game less than State in these next four series despite the dogs having a significantly easier schedule and a much better team than UM. To finish 18-12 they will have to average winning 2 of 3 vs LSU, UK, @UGA and @TAM . Could happen but they could potentially lose any one of these. I think a more realistic prediction for the bears is 16-14.

I think this weekend is going to set the trajectory for both teams and especially the bears. If the bears lose this series to the tigahs I think they are set up to fade. On the other hand bama is the toughest team left on the schedule for us. Two wins there and especially a sweep we could find ourselves in a very good place.

 

[DawgatAuburn]

Everyone feel free to weigh in with your own.

USC (14-4): Florida, at UK, TAMU, at Alabama
Florida (13-5): at USC, at UT, Vandy, at LSU
TAMU (12-6): at Arkansas, VU, at USC, Ole Miss
MSU (10-8 ): at Bama, Mizzou, at Auburn, Arkansas
LSU (10-8 ): at Ole Miss, Arkansas, at UT, Florida
UK (10-8 ): at Auburn, USC, at Ole Miss, Mizzou
UM (10-8 ): LSU, at UGA, UK, at TAMU
Vandy (10-8 ): UGA, at TAMU, at UF, Auburn

I'll guess the following (assuming no rainouts)
Florida: 21
TAMU: 20
MSU: 20
USC: 19
UK: 17
Vandy: 17
LSU: 16
UM: 16

 

[KurtRambis4]

I still say the

West winner has 18/19 wins.

 

[MSUDC11]

I agree with Warren Nolan outside of Ole Miss and Carolina. I think SC ends up with 19 or 20, but not 21.

A&M's schedule is tough, but they're better than all of those teams. They could drop a series, but could also sweep someone. I've got them winning the West at 20-10.

I'm fairly confident we are going to finish 7-2 in our last 9. So this weekend will determine if we end up with 18 or 19 wins. I do think we win two and end up 19-11.

 

[patdog]

MSU: 20

If we win 20 games, that would be our best SEC record since the 1989 team won the SEC at 20-5. 19 wins would be the best since the 1997 CWS team want 19-11.

 

[DawgatAuburn]

20 is sunshine pumping optimistic, but at the same time, if you asked Auburn and Missouri fans, they probably expect to get swept in those series. That leaves us needing four of the remaining six, which is doable. We probably won't get to 20, but it felt better than typing 18 or 19.

 

[patdog]

I wouldn't say it's all that optimistic. I'm predicting 19 wins. Just pointing out that if we don't **** the bed the last month of the season (which we're always capable of doing), we could be on the verge of a pretty historic SEC season for us. Just one more step in returning this program to the prominence it should have never lost.

 

[DawgatAuburn]

It's just hard to predict a sweep for us over anyone at this point, much less two. We could win each of the four remaining series and still only have 18 wins. You would think nine series wins would easily be more than 18 total wins because a team good enough to win that many series would likely have a few sweeps factored in. Not the case for us, at least thus far.

 

[Jacknut1]

We're gonna get a sweep on this back half. Maybe two.

 

[DudyDog]

I think the projections on Warren Nolan are based on year to date results figured through some type formula. I've been watching it throughout the year, and at the beginning when our record wasn't as good, our forcasted year end numbers were based on results up to that date.

Here is something I posted on Sunday. Sorry it's so long.

The race to a National Seed.
Conceivably there are 7 SEC teams remaining for 3-4 spots. Here are the current
rankings by RPI, with conference and overall records beside each team.
Ranking by RPI
(1) Florida	13-5 / 36-6
(3) South Carolina	14-4 / 33-8
(4) Texas A&M	12-6 / 32-8
(5) Ole Miss	10-8 / 31-10
(13) Miss. State	10-8 / 27-13
(14) Vandy	10-8 / 30-10
(16) LSU	10-8 / 27-13
Remaining Schedule and projected outcomes:
I projected the outcomes by using these scenarios:
Home National Seed possible going 3-0 against non National Seed possibles.
Home National Seed possibles going 2-1 against other National Seed possibles.
Visiting National Seed possibles going 3-0 against non National Seed possibles with a losing conference record.
Visiting National Seed possibles going 2-1 against non National Seed possibles with a winning conference record.
(1) Florida	Projected Outcome		(3) South Carolina	Projected Outcome
@ South Carolina	1-2		Florida	2-1
@ Tennessee	3-0		@ Kentucky	2-1
Vandy	2-1		Texas A&M	2-1
@ LSU	1-2		@ Alabama	2-1
(5) Texas A&M			(6) Ole Miss
@ Arkansas	3-0		LSU	2-1
Vandy	2-1		@ Georgia	3-0
@ South Carolina	1-2		Kentucky	2-1
Ole Miss	2-1		@ Texas A&M	1-2
(12) Miss. State			(15) Vandy
@ Alabama	2-1		Georgia	3-0
Missouri	3-0		@ Texas A&M	1-2
@ Auburn	3-0		@ Florida	1-2
Arkansas	3-0		Auburn	3-0
(17) LSU
@ Ole Miss	1-2
Arkansas	3-0
@ Tennessee	3-0
Florida	2-1
Every team other than MSU has at least 2 games with other teams comprising the list
of possible National Seeds. Two, Florida and Texas A&M have 3 series with these teams.
With 4 series to go, MSU has positioned themselves to be in the National Seed conversation.
Alabama should be the toughest team left on the schedule. If we can win 2 of 3 there, we
should be in position to realistically take 7 of the last 9 from the three teams remaining.
That would put our conference record at 19-10.
Here are those final conference standings using the outcomes above:
(3) South Carolina	22-8
(13) Miss. State	21-9
(1) Florida	20-10
(4) Texas A&M	20-10
(16) LSU	19-11
(5) Ole Miss	18-12
(14) Vandy	18-12
Using the scenarios above means we would finish 11-1 over our last 12 conference games.
Personally, I don't think we can do that with our Sunday play, and I say play because I don't
think it's all pitching on Sundays. The fielders can do their part to stink things up on Sunday,
(here I have visions of that little pop up falling in front of our first baseman while he stands
on the bag for whatever reason).
I can see however, things playing out pretty close to what is projected for the other teams
in contention for a National Seed.
We're in the conversation at least, something I wasn't sure we could do at the beginning
of the season. If we keep our focus, I believe we can get one of those National seeds.
Another thing that I think will play into who is selected and who is not is going to be
how teams play in the SEC tourney. I believe the committee will take the regular
season resume and let the results in the SEC tourney go into who might get in and
who they will leave out.
If two teams are neck and neck going into the tourney and one goes 0-2 while the other
goes 2-2, I think that might tip the scales for that team.
So I believe we'll have to wait it out until after the tourney before we know anything for certain.
Go Dog's!

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[patdog]

With this team, nothing between 6-6 and 10-2 would surprise me much at all. I know the conventional wisdom is it's hard to predict a sweep since we haven't swept anyone yet. But we did sweep Oregon. And our last 3 SEC series are against teams that are a lot more like Oregon than any of the 6 SEC teams we've played so far. Even Bama, on paper, is easier than any of the 6 SEC teams we've played so far.

 

[CochiseCowbell]

I'll be the anti-Rugb:

22-8. LSU Sunday was our last loss of the regular season.

 

[rugbdawg]

Best chance I see at a sweep is Arkansas. Mizzou's pitching and Auburn's bats are gonna give us hell.

 

[MSUDC11]

Best chance I see at a sweep is Arkansas. Mizzou's pitching and Auburn's bats are gonna give us hell.

Hogs are surging at the moment. And they obviously have talent. That's the least likely sweep for me.

Mizzou has talented pitchers, but they cannot hit. They are 4-14 for a reason. Auburn is a pretty good hitting team, but we could and maybe should score a ton of runs there.