and the conclusion I came to, which applies to you as well, is that if we'd have just not 17ed around earlier in the year, we wouldn't have been watching the bubble games with any concern. It's fun to care about games I normally wouldn't but I'd rather be in UK's or UT's shoes and know the only game that really mattered was the one my team was playing.
Win some games earlier, and none of this matters. For us, it's not losing to Arkansas at home and not blowing late leads against Vandy and UF. For you it's WKU, Rider, Auburn.
The good thing you have, that we obviously don't, is that you can still control your destiny and play your way in. I definitely think you're about 50/50 right now if you lose tomorrow though. Coming into the weekend, I'd have said 80/20 you'd be in by beating UF and VU.