Questions for 615 and other NCAA tournament followers....

[DowntownDawg]

1) If we lose to Auburn, is there any way get in as an at large team?
2) If we lose to UT, is there any way we get in as an at large team?
3) Do we really want Ole Miss to keep winning? Do they not have a chance of taking our spot? I like their chances against LSU and Arkansas with the way the hogs are playing. They are at 53 per RealTime RPI, but Bubble Watch has them in the discussion, and if they finish with a higher RPI and SOS than us, does that not give the committee pause to take them over us?
4) If we beat Auburn and UT, can we lose on day one of the tournament and have a bid locked up?

 

[friendlyfire]

1. We can't afford to lose to Auburn, but we can get in still if we beat TN and win probably 2 games in the tournament.
2. We can lose to UT but we would have to beat Auburn first. If we lose to UT, 50/50 getting in after that, win 1 or 2 in the tournament (assuming good teams and no upset) and I think we'd be in for sure.
3. At this point, if we do what we need to do, we should be in regardless of what *#!$ does. If they break top 50 rpi, that should only help us.
4. I think we're in if we beat Auburn and UT, regardless of what we do in the tournament (assuming we lost to a good team).

 

[Oxford Godfrey]

It matters not.

Ole Miss will do one of two things this week:

1) Lose one or both games to LSU and Arkansas. Losing at Arkansas at this point seems like a given.

2) Win out, and then get absolutely destroyed by an East team with an actual resume in the first round of the SECT.

Any more questions, email me at NITChampsburg.

 

[ScoobaDawg]

Mississippi winning would give us 2 quality (top 50) wins.
But we have to win our last two games for that to matter.

I dont see the ncaa taking them over us though. Short of us going 0-3

 

[DowntownDawg]

...but let's say we beat Auburn and lose to UT and they win their last two, which is not at all far fetched. Arkansas is struggling and really have nothing to play for except a western division co championship, and Ole Miss has an NCAA bid possibly on the line. So, in that scenario, we finish the season 10-6 and them 9-7. They are one game behind us in the division standings, but would have a significantly better RPI and SOS.

I would worry about that.

 

[615dawg]

1. Auburn is must win. If we lose that one, can we get in? Yes, but we will be among the last 2 or 3 considered, and there will be more than 2 or 3 upsets in conference tournaments this year. I can almost guarantee that someone besides Cal wins the Pac 10 tournament, which gives a one bid conference two teams. We simply cannot afford a fifth sub-100 loss.
2. If we lose to Tennessee, we'd have a shot at getting in if we made it to the championship game and lost, if that road included wins over Florida and Vanderbilt. If Alabama and Georgia/Arkansas were our road to the championship game, we'd have to win it. Also would need very few upsets in conference tournaments.
3. Yes. As long as we keep winning. Ole Miss getting back into the top 50 RPI is crucial. They will not pass us with LSU as one of their remaining games and Tennessee as one of ours. We have to take care of business as well. The committee will not select an Ole Miss team with a lower RPI, one that finished two games behind us in the division, and one that we beat twice over us. They'll either take both of us, or us. Getting quality wins is crucial, and now we have a solid chance of having a winning record against Top 50 if they can get there and stay there.
4. Not in my opinion. A lot depends on who we play in that first game. If that first game is Tennessee, I'd give us a 70 percent chance at getting in. If its Florida, we are a 50/50 shot. If it is the West 5 (Alabama or Auburn) and we lose, I don't think we're in. You didn't ask, but I believe we become a lock if we win our last two and then win the quarterfinal against Tennessee/Florida, or a near lock if it is the West 5.

The reason I do not feel we are a lock if we win our last 2 and fall out of the quarterfinal is RPI-based. We will fall after a loss, and a loss in that game could drop us out of the top 50. I feel that top 50 is where we need to be to be considered a lock. If we end up 55th, we would be a definite bubble team, but probably out because of some upsets in the Horizon, MVC, MWC, CAA, A-10 or Pac 10. Hell, what if Georgia wins the SEC Tournament?

 

[DowntownDawg]

.but let's say we beat Auburn and lose to UT and they win their last
two, which is not at all far fetched. Arkansas is struggling and really
have nothing to play for except a western division co championship, and
Ole Miss has an NCAA bid possibly on the line. So, in that scenario,
we finish the season 10-6 and them 9-7. They are one game behind us in
the division standings, but would have a significantly better RPI and
SOS.

Wouldn't they have a better RPI? According to realtime we are 4 spots behind them now.

 

[615dawg]

they would have a better RPI, but still be one game behind us and there is that matter of a sweep.

The only way Ole Miss gets in and we don't require us to lose 2 of our next 3 games and Ole Miss to win at least 3 in a row. If we were to lose to Tennessee and lose the quarterfinal, and Ole Miss made the championship game, it could happen.