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Really good tournament prop

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saltslugs

Redshirt
Oct 9, 2009
1,500
0
0
My site (bettingepxress) is offering the following bet.

Number of wins by SEC teams: 4.5. $100 bet on the under will get you $69.

I took the bet. I can't see how that's not a good bet. Let's say Florida wins three, which is unlikely. With three wins by Florida, the over would only be hit if Missouri and Mississippi account for two wins. Ain't happening.
 
QuaoarsKing

QuaoarsKing

All-Conference
Mar 11, 2008
5,835
2,468
113
You'll probably win. Since Missouri is unlikely to win 2 and Ole Miss is unlikely to win even 1, Florida would probably have to make the final 4 for you to lose. They're probably the most likely final 4 team out of that region, but the chances are still a good bit less than 50%.
 
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SkullCandy.sixpack

Redshirt
Nov 19, 2012
1,157
0
0
I think you cover. I doubt the SEC will get over 1 win between UofOM and Missou. If Missou gets by Colorado State, they get Louisville. Gone. That means the Bears would have to beat Wisconsin--a stretch. With only one win there, Florida will have to go 4 deep. I don't see that, especially because POTUS picked them to go 5 deep...
 
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saltslugs

Redshirt
Oct 9, 2009
1,500
0
0
Say what?

You really think Florida is the most likely Final Four team? Over Kansas and Gtown?!

Florida should have a fairly easy second round match-up but I can't imagine them reaching the Final 4. They're just not very good.
 
W

WutheringDawg

Senior
Dec 4, 2010
1,633
558
113
The way their bracket plays out I can see ole miss losing game one or making a pretty descent run to the second weekend.
 
QuaoarsKing

QuaoarsKing

All-Conference
Mar 11, 2008
5,835
2,468
113
Nate Silver and Ken Pomeroy think Florida is the most likely Final 4 team from that bracket.
 
S

saltslugs

Redshirt
Oct 9, 2009
1,500
0
0
My thoughts exactly. Plus, a loss by Mizzou and Ole Miss (which is very possible) pretty much guarantees a win. I could always hedge my bet with a Florida NC bet.
 
P

patdog

Heisman
May 28, 2007
56,510
25,748
113
I think you cover easily. I think Mizzou loses by double digits to Colorado St. I've got Florida winning 2. Mississippi could go out in the 1st round or possibly make the Sweet 16 (I've got them out in the 1st). Either way, you win.
 
S

saltslugs

Redshirt
Oct 9, 2009
1,500
0
0
I'm not exactly sure

But, with Missouri losing it's hard to imagine not winning something​.
 
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SkullCandy.sixpack

Redshirt
Nov 19, 2012
1,157
0
0
you can go ahead and spend that money. Unless UofOM goes 3 deep, you are good. If they lose today, Florida has to go to the Final Four (POTUS' prediction) for you to lose. Good job.
 
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saltslugs

Redshirt
Oct 9, 2009
1,500
0
0
Yeah

I see that Florida is actually the favorite to make it out of that region (but still given lower than 50% chance as you said). I just don't see it!
 
S

saltslugs

Redshirt
Oct 9, 2009
1,500
0
0
It's even better than that. If Ole Miss loses, Florida would have to reach the championship game.
 
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