Really quick look at the national seed picture headed into today

[615dawg]

This is my algorithm, but interesting to me.

National Seed "Locks"
1. North Carolina
2. LSU
3. Virginia
4. Vanderbilt
7. Cal State Fullerton*

*- Fullerton is considered a lock because of remaining schedule, but the index says they are currently the 7th national seed.

National Seed Contenders - all host "locks" at this point (three will be national seeds)
5. Florida State
6. Mississippi State
8. Oregon State
9. Oregon
10. North Carolina State

Other host contenders (six will host)
11. South Carolina
12. Indiana (probable lock)
13. Arizona State (lock)
14. UCLA
15. Clemson
16. Louisville (lock)
17. South Alabama (long shot)
18. Georgia Tech
19. Oklahoma (probable lock)
20. UNC Wilmington (long shot)
21. Ole Miss (long shot)
22. Michigan State (could end up taking Indiana's spot, but only Indiana's spot)

Right now, South Carolina and UCLA have the last two spots, but I think we're a national seed contender. Washington over Oregon State and UCLA over Oregon today would help a lot. NC State is on a 13 game win streak, they are going for the sweep against Georgia Tech and have UNC at home next week.

I would project us at this point the #8 national seed, edging out NC State and Oregon. NC State can pass in a hurry if they were to win the series against UNC next week, but we have a chance with Vandy to solidify as well. Here's how I see the pods at this point

North Carolina > South Carolina
LSU > Oklahoma
Virginia > Indiana
Vanderbilt > Louisville
Florida State > Arizona State
Oregon State > Oregon
Cal State Fullerton > UCLA
Mississippi State > North Carolina State

 

[CadaverDawg]

Interesting. Thanks for the breakdown.

I didn't realize there were so many Oregon/Oregon St, North Carolina/NC State, scenarios in the hunt for National Seeds. You would have to think that helps us if Ole Miss can just work their way completely out of the hosting discussion. I highly doubt they will want 2 National Seeds in the same state if they can help it. That doesn't bode well for NC State and one of the Oregon schools.

Good stuff.

 

[57stratdawg]

Thanks. Think about how big that Friday night game against LSU is now.

 

[QuaoarsKing]

I don't know if it's formally against the rules, but I can't remember them ever matching up two #1 seeds from the same conference (Oregon, Oregon State)

 

[patdog]

I doubt they give two ***** where the top 8 teams are located. They've never minded having both Florida and Florida St. as national seeds (or Cal-Irvine and Cal-Fullerton) before.

 

[msstate7]

Thanks. Think about how big that Friday night game against LSU is now.

Trying to forget that game.

 

[615dawg]

NC State/UNC is the outlier. If NC State were to win 2 of 3 against UNC, then they both should be national seeds.

Oregon/Oregon State - in my opinion, one will be a national seed and the other will host. They play four games with each other (a three game conference series and a Governor's Cup type game) in a couple weeks. We need for one of them to win 3 of 4 and knock the other one out, but Oregon State is on the verge of being swept by a Washington team that is 9-22. That hurts them tremendously, and has dropped them from a national seed lock to the national seed bubble.

Indiana/Michigan State is the same way, except for hosting only. One of those teams will host, the other one will be a 2 seed in Oregon somewhere.

This list also contains a couple of possible 2 seeds for a Starkville Regional. South Alabama and Georgia Tech are my two contenders for the 2 seed in Starkville. Wilmington will go to one of the NC schools, Clemson will go to South Carolina. Ole Miss will be one of the ACC schools.

 

[CadaverDawg]

I doubt they give two ***** where the top 8 teams are located. They've never minded having both Florida and Florida St. as national seeds (or Cal-Irvine and Cal-Fullerton) before.

They definitely give a ****. Thus why they let Purdue host over Kentucky last year.

Now, if both are obvious locks to be National Seeds, there's only so much they can do....but if NCState and Oregon St are right on that line of hosting, while UNC and Oregon are for sure locks, I would definitely see that working in our favor.

Not saying it's going to make the decision for them, but it will be factored in.

 

[615dawg]

Its happened before, but they have gotten away from the conference thing the last few years.

Last year, Florida and Florida State were the 1 and 3 national seeds, so 2 from the same state is not an issue.

#1 seeds from the same state or conference being matched up in the last five years
2012: Baylor/Rice
2011: TCU/Rice
2011: Clemson/South Carolina
2010: South Carolina/Coastal Carolina
2010: Texas/TCU
2010: UCLA/Cal State Fullerton
2010: Miami/Florida
2009: Texas/TCU
2009: North Carolina/East Carolina
2008: Cal State Fullerton/Stanford
2008: Rice/A&M

 

[CadaverDawg]

Its happened before, but they have gotten away from the conference thing the last few years.

Last year, Florida and Florida State were the 1 and 3 national seeds, so 2 from the same state is not an issue.

#1 seeds from the same state or conference being matched up in the last five years
2012: Baylor/Rice
2011: TCU/Rice
2011: Clemson/South Carolina
2010: South Carolina/Coastal Carolina
2010: Texas/TCU
2010: UCLA/Cal State Fullerton
2010: Miami/Florida
2009: Texas/TCU
2009: North Carolina/East Carolina
2008: Cal State Fullerton/Stanford
2008: Rice/A&M

Right. And they couldn't match up Oregon/Oregon St, or UNC/NCState if they were all National Seeds...thus my point. They love those matchups in Super Regionals, and they can't have em if they are both National Seeds.

Like I said, they aren't opposed to having 2 National Seeds from the same state. Especially when you have a #1 and #3 like UF and FSU last year, because they were both obvious National Seeds. But had FSU been a borderline National Seed, they would have loved to match up the Florida vs FSU Regionals in a Super if there was another team just as deserving of a National Seed as FsU, that they could slip in there instead.

 

[drt7891]

Or even bigger, how big the USCe series might very well be. A quick breakdown:

USCe has...
@LSU... might win 1
Vandy... they could take the series, probably 1 win (I think this is a big swing series for them... their X-Factor)
Georgia... Should take at least 2, probably a sweep
@MSU

I think the Vandy series for USCe will determine whether USCe could host or will not.

We have...
@Vandy... need to win 1
Bama... need to take 2, possible sweep (I'm not betting on a sweep)
@OM... We have a good shot at taking the series, but not winning 3 (this is our swing series... a huge RPI boost for us)
USCe

If we manage 15 wins going into the USCe series, they could very well have 15-16 wins coming into Starkville. That series could very well determine who will be the last host spot in the SEC, and that host will be a national seed (should things play out this way). If we win 2 of 3 against USCe, we will be hosting (much more attractive crowds, better RPI, much stronger schedule), but if we lose the series, USCe could very well take that from us due to their recent success in reaching Omaha. This is setting up to be a very exciting finish for us.

 

[patdog]

They let Purdue host because they're always going to let a big 10 team host if they're anywhere bear the top 25 rpi. That's just a given.

 

[engie]

Louisville goes down!

They've now lost 2 of 3 @ RPI #151 St. Johns -- and should no longer be considered an absolute lock to host IMO. They likely fall out of the RPI top 30 on this one...

 

[CadaverDawg]

Louisville goes down!

They've now lost 2 of 3 @ RPI #151 St. Johns -- and should no longer be considered an absolute lock to host IMO. They likely fall out of the RPI top 30 on this one...

Great. Now we need A&M and Kentucky to score a few runs, and Tennessee to take a bat to the plate with them.

 

[engie]

They let Purdue host because they're always going to let a big 10 team host if they're anywhere bear the top 25 rpi. That's just a given.

Yep. Hasn't been that many B1G hosts over the years -- but if they finish in the RPI top 25, they've got an excellent chance. And if we are being honest, Purdue DESERVED to host last year. It's confusing to me why people keep saying that Purdue got the last slot over Kentucky(presumably because UK got sent on the road to Purdue). Purdue was a LOCK to host. The team that UK had a legit argument about was Miami -- not Purdue. That's who actually got UK's host spot -- and also made 5 ACC teams to 3 SEC teams.

 

[Lawdawg.sixpack]

#1 seeds from the same state or conference being matched up in the last five years
2012: Baylor/Rice
2011: TCU/Rice
2011: Clemson/South Carolina
2010: South Carolina/Coastal Carolina
2010: Texas/TCU
2010: UCLA/Cal State Fullerton
2010: Miami/Florida
2009: Texas/TCU
2009: North Carolina/East Carolina
2008: Cal State Fullerton/Stanford
2008: Rice/A&M

They love the "regional" Super Regional matchups, but none of those are from the same conference. You'll only see an intraconference super if there's a regional upset.

 

[engie]

They love the "regional" Super Regional matchups, but none of those are from the same conference. You'll only see an intraconference super if there's a regional upset.

This is correct. It is an NCAA rule that you do not match 2 regional hosts from the same conference in a common Super Regional unless you have no other choice(aka there are more than 8 hosts from one conference--not happening).

It is pretty common for a 2-seed to advance in a regional to face a team from their own conference in a super-regional however...

 

[patdog]

Some people try to read way too much into what the selection committee does and come up with wild theories about how they try to engineer the seedings / matchups /regional hosts, etc. They just don't do that and haven't for a long time. They'll give a host bid to a marginal northern team every time (remember #1 MSU being sent to play at #2 Ohio St. in 2001). But other than that, they pretty much just seed the better teams and then match up the seeds as regionally as practical.

 

[patdog]

I think the rule technically is that two #1 seeds from the same conference can't meet in a super regional. It's pretty much the same, but there are some rare cases where the #1 seed doesn't host a regional.

 

[CadaverDawg]

Some people try to read way too much into what the selection committee does and come up with wild theories about how they try to engineer the seedings / matchups /regional hosts, etc. They just don't do that and haven't for a long time. They'll give a host bid to a marginal northern team every time (remember #1 MSU being sent to play at #2 Ohio St. in 2001). But other than that, they pretty much just seed the better teams and then match up the seeds as regionally as practical.

And you read way too much into what some people say. I'm not denying that the NCAA will pick the 8 best host sites if possible.....but if MSU and NCState have a near identical profile and are sitting in the 8 and 9 spots, I would rather be us than NCState if North Carolina is a lock as a National Seed.

It will enter their minds, but that doesn't make it a conspiracy theory. It's human nature. And whether you want to admit it or not, regional location matters in college sports...especially baseball and basketball.

 

[patdog]

I just haven't seen anything from the selection committee to indicate that's the case. And why are you even bringing basketball into the discussion at all? Regional location CLEARLY doesn't have a damn thing to do with the NCAA basketball tournament. The regional names are meaningless in the last decade or so. They do send to the top team in a pod to the nearest practical 1st round location (unless you're Syracuse/UNLV this year and get sent to play a virtual road game at #12 Cal), but the bracket itself is just 1 big S-curve national bracket.

 

[patdog]

They could only match up UNC-NC State or Oregon-Oregon St. if one of them was a #2 regional seeds. As long as they're both #1 regional seeds, conference teams can't meet in a super regional, no matter if they're both national seeds or not.

 

[GhostOfJackie]

Ole Miss and USC swept this weekend. USC swept a ranked team. How does this effect your rankings?
Also, Oregon and Oregon State have already lost the first 2 of their series. Florida State got swept. That should at least keep us in the top 3 of that "national seed contender" list.

The Ole Miss and South Carolina series are HUGE for us.