Regional Projections

[615dawg]

Tough road for us ...


<table style="border-collapse: collapse;" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="327">

<col style="" width="163"><col style="" width="164"><tbody><tr height="13"><td height="13" width="163">Charlottesville Regional</td><td width="164">Palo Alto Regional</td></tr><tr height="13"><td height="13">1. Virginia (1)</td><td>1. Stanford</td></tr><tr height="13"><td height="13">2. Alabama</td><td>2. Fresno State</td></tr><tr height="13"><td height="13">3. UCLA</td><td>3. Gonzaga</td></tr><tr height="13"><td height="13">4. Manhattan</td><td>4. Purdue</td></tr><tr height="13"><td height="13"></td><td></td></tr><tr height="13"><td height="13">Corvallis Regional</td><td>Fullerton Regional</td></tr><tr height="13"><td height="13">1. Oregon State (8)</td><td>1. Cal State Fullerton</td></tr><tr height="13"><td height="13">2. Kansas State</td><td>2. Arizona</td></tr><tr height="13"><td height="13">3. Ole Miss</td><td>3. St. John's</td></tr><tr height="13"><td height="13">4. Hawaii</td><td>4. San Francisco</td></tr><tr height="13"><td height="13"></td><td></td></tr><tr height="13"><td height="13">Gainesville Regional</td><td>Tallahassee Regional</td></tr><tr height="13"><td height="13">1. Florida (5)</td><td>1. Florida State</td></tr><tr height="13"><td height="13">2. UCF</td><td>2. Stetson</td></tr><tr height="13"><td height="13">3. Jacksonville</td><td>3. Florida International</td></tr><tr height="13"><td height="13">4. Bethune Cookman</td><td>4. Princeton</td></tr><tr height="13"><td height="13"></td><td></td></tr><tr height="13"><td height="13">Chapel Hill Regional</td><td>Austin Regional</td></tr><tr height="13"><td height="13">1. North Carolina (4)</td><td>1. Texas</td></tr><tr height="13"><td height="13">2. Auburn</td><td>2. TCU</td></tr><tr height="13"><td height="13">3. Connecticut</td><td>3. Texas State</td></tr><tr height="13"><td height="13">4. UNC Wilmington</td><td>4. Stephen F. Austin</td></tr><tr height="13"><td height="13"></td><td></td></tr><tr height="13"><td height="13">Columbia Regional</td><td>Wilson Regional</td></tr><tr height="13"><td height="13">1. South Carolina (3)</td><td>1. East Carolina</td></tr><tr height="13"><td height="13">2. Elon</td><td>2. Clemson</td></tr><tr height="13"><td height="13">3. Charlotte</td><td>3. Coastal Carolina</td></tr><tr height="13"><td height="13">4. Valparaiso</td><td>4. Navy</td></tr><tr height="13"><td height="13"></td><td></td></tr><tr height="13"><td height="13">Atlanta Regional</td><td>Hattiesburg Regional</td></tr><tr height="13"><td height="13">1. Georgia Tech (6)</td><td>1. Southern Mississippi</td></tr><tr height="13"><td height="13">2. Georgia</td><td>2. Oklahoma State</td></tr><tr height="13"><td height="13">3. Georgia Southen</td><td>3. Southeastern Louisiana</td></tr><tr height="13"><td height="13">4. Kent State</td><td>4. Alcorn State</td></tr><tr height="13"><td height="13"></td><td></td></tr><tr height="13"><td height="13">College Station Regional</td><td>Fayetteville Regional</td></tr><tr height="13"><td height="13">1. Texas A&M (7)</td><td>1. Arkansas</td></tr><tr height="13"><td height="13">2. Rice</td><td>2. Oklahoma</td></tr><tr height="13"><td height="13">3. Mississippi State</td><td>3. Creighton</td></tr><tr height="13"><td height="13">4. Stony Brook</td><td>4. South Dakota State</td></tr><tr height="13"><td height="13"></td><td></td></tr><tr height="13"><td height="13">Nashville Regional</td><td>Coral Gables Regional</td></tr><tr height="13"><td height="13">1. Vanderbilt (2)</td><td>1. Miami</td></tr><tr height="13"><td height="13">2. NC State</td><td>2. Troy</td></tr><tr height="13"><td height="13">3. East Tennessee State</td><td>3. California</td></tr><tr height="13"><td height="13">4. Austin Peay</td><td>4. Monmuth</td></tr>

</tbody></col></col></table>
LAST FIVE IN: Creighton, Ole Miss, UCLA, East Tennessee State, Southeastern Louisiana
FIRST FIVE OUT: Texas Tech, LSU, UAB, Florida Atlantic, College of Charleston

Arizona State is not included. If ASU appeal is won:
ASU would host over Stanford
Southeastern Louisiana would move out of the tournament
Elon would drop to 3 seed, Creighton to 4.

 

[8dog]

No thanks. If we had to face Hultzen, they may as well put the game on Comedy Central.

I think Etheridge is probably the most reliable. He's been doing this for a long time and knows how the committee operates better than anyone.


Edited to Add: Here's a new bats statistic you won't get from Dave Neal-- Virginia 2B Keith Werman hit .414 last year in 192 ABs. Through 130 ABs this year, he is hitting .215.

 

[Todd4State]

If we do go there, at least we've faced some pitchers in the SEC that are as tough as Hultzen.

 

[615dawg]

and be sent to Hattiesburg.

SE Louisiana will end up there as well, but I think they grab the 4 seed. An Oklahoma/Oklahoma State/Pac 10 team will be the other team in the Burg.

 

[dawgs.sixpack]

Edited to Add: Here's a new bats statistic you won't get from Dave Neal-- Virginia 2B Keith Werman hit .414 last year in 192 ABs. Through 130 ABs this year, he is hitting .215.

wow just had to look that kid up. batted .400 as a frosh in 2009 too. and has only K'd 14 times this season. i'd love to see a fangraphs breakdown of his numbers. on the surface, it appears he's having like the most ridiculously unlucky season ever.

 

[OneParticularHarbor]

USM's Friday starter Todd McInnis has a sore shoulder and has been pushed back to Sunday against ECU. His late-season durability has always been an issue. The Saturday starter, Geoffrey Thomas, has been less and less effective lately. Three of the final four C-USA series for USM (ECU, UAB and Rice) are against the other top teams in the league. All that is to say that a Hattiesburg regional may be much less likely than it looked a month ago when they carried a top 5 RPI.

 

[8dog]

its hard to think the new bat isn't killing him.

 

[dawgs.sixpack]

maybe but he's a slap hitter anyway, so i'd think it would affect him much less than a power guy. that's why i'd like to see a fangraphs breakdown of his balls in play to get some GB/FB/LD rates compared to 2009 and 2010.

 

[8dog]

if you can't get it on the sweet spot, the ball is not traveling nearly as fast out of the infield.

 

[dawgs.sixpack]

yeah but you don't have a ,400+ career avg as a frosh and soph then lose .200 points on your avg as a junior because you are unable to adjust to a new bat. is a drop to say .310 easily explained by the bat? yes. is a drop to .215 easily explained by the bat? no. obviously the dude has worked hard and puts forth effort, so i'd imagine if it was something as simple as putting in extra weight room work to get stronger for the new bats or BP to get used to the new sweetspot, then he's have at least softened the effect of the bat on his avg by now.

 

[Todd4State]

which would actually benefit a contact hitter. Personally, I think he's just have a crappy year.

 

[Todd4State]

We need to put in a bid because I could see us hosting a regional as a two with USM as a one. Our track record with attendance at regionals is hard to ignore- and the NCAA is going to want the $$$.

 

[patdog]

Right now, my money's still on USM. But if you've got ECU this weekend, that could change.