RPI up to 55

[615dawg]

Will move up at least one spot because 52 and 53 play each other tomorrow. The top 50 is definitely within reach. I've been saying if we finish in the top 50, we are definitely in.

Also important to note, Ole Miss is up to 56. If they can get up to the top 50, they have a shot to get in, but it gives us two more top 50 wins. Go Rebels.

Florida sits at 48. We have a shot to catch them, as they finish the season with Vandy and Kentucky. Arizona State is also worth watching, they finish the season with USC and UCLA, both winnable games, but if they dropped one (especially to UCLA), that gives us some more jump.

So I project we will enter the Auburn game at 54, possibly 53 if some weird things happen with the deep Factor 3 numbers. An Auburn win is worth 3 spots at least. Tennessee could be worth 8. </p>

 

[615dawg]

Will move up at least one spot because 52 and 53 play each other tomorrow. The top 50 is definitely within reach. I've been saying if we finish in the top 50, we are definitely in.

Also important to note, Ole Miss is up to 56. If they can get up to the top 50, they have a shot to get in, but it gives us two more top 50 wins. Go Rebels.

Florida sits at 48. We have a shot to catch them, as they finish the season with Vandy and Kentucky. Arizona State is also worth watching, they finish the season with USC and UCLA, both winnable games, but if they dropped one (especially to UCLA), that gives us some more jump.

So I project we will enter the Auburn game at 54, possibly 53 if some weird things happen with the deep Factor 3 numbers. An Auburn win is worth 3 spots at least. Tennessee could be worth 8. </p>

 

[DawgatAuburn]

Down to 57 this morning on Realtime (yet to update yesterday's games)
56 on CBS
55 on Warren Nolan
CollegeRPI has not updated yet. We were 65 last Sunday.

 

[Hanmudog]

Why did Ole Miss have such a big RPI jump for beating Bama who has poor RPI and us barely move after winning at SC who has a decent RPI? Doesn't make any sense.

 

[TBonewannabe]

for the sarcasm impaired.

 

[8dog]

like what ole miss's other opponents did and what their opponents opponents did.

 

[615dawg]

on Wednesday. We are nine ten-thousandths of a point from 53rd as well.

 

[615dawg]

If they beat LSU Wednesday, they'll jump again as K-State plays Kansas and Villanova plays Cincy.

If K-State and Nova win those games, Ole Miss will pass us, which isn't necessarily a bad thing.

 

[Coach34]

he's Bizarro Standsbury

 

[8dog]

d

 

[RebelBruiser]

he's Bizarro Standsbury

Best description I've seen yet. Kennedy has twice had his teams play well OOC and collapse in conference play. Stans likes to choke on a few early games, almost every year and then tear it up in SEC play to fight back into the tourney picture.

Obviously the latter formula works a little bit better for getting an NCAA bid.

 

[Sutterkane]

beat them and there is no need to tire out 615 with having to plan out all these potential scenarios.

 

[615dawg]

but had nothing to do with Ole Miss jumping up so much.

Conference games are always going to even out in the division, and they are taking the same hit we are by being in the West vs. the East.

They had a big jump after beating Alabama, we moved up 3 spots after beating a "better" South Carolina team. But guess what? South Carolina and Alabama are both 14-14, the RPI treats them as equals. So why the big jump? We know that Ole Miss played a much better non-conference schedule, but the jump has to do with how they fared this weekend. Ole Miss opponents had a better weekend than ours.

Ole Miss
--------
UALR - won
Alabama State - won
Indiana - lost in a top 3 conference
Kansas State - won in the top conference
Villanova- lost in the number 2 conference
A&M Corpus Christi - lost
Arkansas State - lost
USM - lost
McNeese State - won
UTEP - won
Centenary- lost
West Virginia - won in the number 2 conference
Jax State - lost
UCF - lost

Ole Miss non-conference opponents were 6-8 over the weekend, with four (2-2) coming in top 3 conferences. That may not be an awesome record, but combined with the win, it was worth a lot.

Conversely, our non-conference opponents:

Rider - won
SELA - won
BCC - lost
UTPA - lost
Richmond - lost
ODU - won
SBU - won
DePaul - lost in the number 2 conference
UCLA - lost
Wright State - lost
Houston - lost
Centenary - lost
Valley - lost
San Diego - won
WKU - won

Our non-conference opponents went 6-9, just a half game worse than Ole Miss, but in top three conferences, our opponents were just 0-1 (and DePaul is the worst team in the Big East, and their loss was to Rutgers, the second worse team. so its not doing us much good at all).

 

[615dawg]

we could beat Auburn and Tennessee and I would not feel "safe" unless we beat Florida. In fact, the numbers I am running say that if we beat AU and UT, and lost to Florida in the SECT, we'd be left out.

Tennessee is a must win, I'll give you that. I just enjoy running the numbers, that's all.

 

[RebelBruiser]

That's your biggest concern at this point.

If you look at last year's RPI, the only teams in the Top 45 of the RPI to NOT make the tourney were San Diego State (34) and Creighton (40). Both had good but not spectacular conference records in weak conferences. The same can be said for the next 6 highest RPI teams that didn't make it, UAB (46), Illinois St. (47), St. Mary's (48), Niagara (49), George Mason (51), Tulsa (53).

Florida at 54 was the highest rated major conference team to not make the tourney last year. The only at large teams outside the Top 45 were Maryland (55), Boston College (60), and Arizona (62).

So, if they go by what they did last year, it's going to be important to get in the Top 45. I think if you end up at 11-5 though, that will be enough even with a loss in the first round of the SEC tourney, because I think your RPI will be in the 50 range, and you'll be one of those major conference teams that gets the benefit of the doubt due to your conference record.

Regardless, I think that Top 45 RPI number is a key to watch. If you get there, you should feel safe. If not, you're going to be sweating at least a little bit.

 

[fishwater99]

we could beat Auburn and Tennessee and I would not feel "safe" unless we beat Florida. In fact, the numbers I am running say that if we beat AU and UT, and lost to Florida in the SECT, we'd be left out.

Tennessee is a must win, I'll give you that. I just enjoy running the numbers, that's all.

That would be 7 wins out of the last 9 games.

 

[Coach34]

if we lose to Aubarn, I think we need more than just Tennessee

Loss to Aubarn, beat Tennessee, lose 1st round of SEC Tourney = NIT

 

[615dawg]

is to NOT look at the last 10 games the way they have in the past.

When we are done at the SEC Tournament, we need to be in the top 50 RPI. Top 45 would be nicer. Top 40 would mean winning the SEC Tournament. A 0.6000 RPI has never been left out. That's the scheduling that we need to strive for.

 

[8dog]

noted that they were not supposed to factor in last 10 games. But then he said that its almost impossible not to look at the sheet and see what the team did in their final 10 and not think about it.

 

[RebelBruiser]

noted that they were not supposed to factor in last 10 games. But then he said that its almost impossible not to look at the sheet and see what the team did in their final 10 and not think about it.

What I heard is that they essentially took the Last 10 or Last 12 column off the stat sheet for each team. I think that's fair because it's hard to compare a team that went 8-4 to close ACC play with a team that went 10-2 to close CUSA play. It's unfair to the team from the better conference. Yes, they will subconsciously remember who is stumbling down the stretch and who is heating up, and I'm sure that will still play into it, but it won't be a concrete number they can discuss.

 

[615dawg]

That being said, someone could physically research it themselves, but that data will not be provided by the NCAA.

Having been in the selection room for a different sport, the NCAA provides you a lot of information (including their super secret RPI with the bonuses that everyone is just guessing at), but the committee members have access to the internet, so they can do whatever they want.

 

[GloryDawg]

noted that they were not supposed to factor in last 10 games. But then he said that its almost impossible not to look at the sheet and see what the team did in their final 10 and not think about it.

<p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt">I heard an ESPN clown saythat they can't weigh the last10 games more then the first 10. Basically he said that they have to take the whole season into consideration where in the past they did not.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </span></p>

 

[8dog]

I haven't seen the team sheet but doesn't it tell you the schedule and whether each game was a win or a loss?

Regardless, here is what the guy said (remember, i didn't say this):

"6. Human nature is involved. Used to be, weight was given to a team's final 12 games. The committee now considers a team's entire body of work. Sounds good, but when you look at a resume, or "team sheet," it's difficult not to notice if a team has lost four of its last five. "

 

[patdog]

And we need 3 more wins to be sure of getting a bid. I thought we'd get a little more of an RPI boost from a road win over a decent team.

 

[patdog]

They can do whatever they want to. I'm sure some committee members will continue to weight the last 10-12 games more heavily on their own.

 

[Coach34]

they are given criteria, but they, as individuals, are going to pick the things that are most important to them and vote accordingly. If they want to look at last 10, then they will look at it

 

[Agentdog]

I know it is swallows. But watching the RPI is as comical as dumb&dumber.

DON'T F'n lose to Rider and Richmond. Playing a F'n zone vs Arkansas when Courtney drives in for a layup every possession. Damn it!

SOS. Backs against the wall to make the NCAAs.

I guess it makes for a interesting stretch run though. Also, little chance of losing to a direction school first round of NCAAs.

 

[hullabaloodog]

http://bracketology101.blogspot.com/2010/02/bracketology-101s-field-of-65-march-1.html

12 Seed in Spokane. Playing Georgetown.

 

[mstatefan88]

We could lose to Auburn and still beat Tennessee and get to Saturday of the SEC Tournament and be ok. We can't have losses to the Top 4 teams in the East, which all may end up being the Top 4 overall in the SEC. We need a win against a quality opponent that isn't Old Dominion, because ESPN and everyone else continues to mention we beat Old Dominion way back in November. And Ole Miss needs to win out and win their first game of the SEC Tournament. I think they will still be on the outside looking in, but it will help our RPI. </p>

 

[patdog]

It wouldn't hurt our RPI that much, but what it would do is give us a 5th bad loss. We already have too many bad losses. We can't afford another one. I think it could maybe be overcome if we beat both Tennessee and Florida.

 

[615dawg]

If you look at the criteria sheet, we have one bad thing: the four "bad losses." Anything sub-100 is a bad loss and anything sub-200 is a really bad loss. Other teams on the bubble have two or three bad things - bubble teams are going to have issues- thats why they are on the bubble.

Here are the criteria:

Overall record: we are good here
Conference record: we are good here
Non-conference record: we are good here
Home record vs. Road/Neutral record: we are 9-6 road/neutral - thats as good or better than anyone on the bubble
Top 50 record: We are 1-4, but its not necessarily counted as bad unless it is under 20 percent or has 6 or more losses. That being said, we are on the border of this being a strike, but a couple of games from being 4-3 against the top 50 (beat Tennessee, Ole Miss rises, Florida drops). A winning record against the top 50 would be huge and would offset the bad losses.
Sub-100 losses: We have 4. That stinks. Other bubble teams have no more than 2 (Ole Miss has 1)- Although this is our only bad thing, it is so much worse than everyone else, we cannot afford a fifth bad loss.

Look at Connecticut for instance.
Their record is 17-12
Their conference record is 2 games below .500
They are 3-8 in road/neutral games
They have 2 sub-100 losses

That's four bad things for bubble teams. They have 3 top 50 wins and that seems to be what is getting them in the conversation.

 

[MeridianDog]

So hard for the RPI folks to keep us straight