you are in rare company. Feel proud.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trumps-base-is-shrinking/
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trumps-base-is-shrinking/
Rubes on this board
- Thread starter countryroads89_rivals
- Start date
I don't approve. He's getting mired down in the muck, and isn't sticking to his campaign promises.
But yet Hillary still isn't president.
You're the only Rube on this board.....what a dumbass. Remember who made this call?
Chance of winning
Hillary Clinton 71.4%
Donald Trump 28.6%
Electoral votes
Hillary Clinton 302.2
Donald Trump 235.0
538 gave Trump a 28.6% chance of winning. That's actually pretty good relative to everyone else. And it's not outlandish that someone with a 28.6% chance wins. When a baseball player with a .286 average gets a hit nobody is surprised.
And it's a lot harder to get the electoral votes right because a small swing in a state can shift all the electoral votes from one candidate to the other. It's much easier to make a closer guess on the overall vote (or overall approval). 538's guess on overall vote was HRC 48.5 and DJT 44.9. The actual vote turned out to be HRC 48.2 and DJT 46.1. IOW, 538 was close on the overall vote.
And they're right on Trump's approval rating too. Most polls are getting similar results. Trump's approach isn't working and his approval, which wasn't high to begin with, is slipping. He needs to find a way to appeal more broadly. Actually, in the last week or so he hasn't had any of his blow ups or screw ups so maybe he's finally starting to change.
I agree 538 was wrong in predicting who would win the election. Do you agree that 538 was close in predicting the overall vote?
So they missed by 1.5%. If they're missing by 1.5% in the article about Trump's disapproval ratings then the difference means little and the thrust of the article does not change.
That's a different question. The other guy was arguing that 538's article about Trump's approval rating didn't matter because 538 didn't predict the election winner. But Trump's approval rating is an overall number, not an electoral vote number, so it is more relevant how well 538 predicted the overall vote than it is how they predicted the electoral vote. And 538 predicted the overall vote very well.
You will never be honest eniugh to admit it but it was always about ot voting for Hillary for many.
Wrong and Wrong... I never mentioned one word about 538's predication about Trumps approval ratings. I don't consider being WRONG on all three predictions in the 2016 election doing "very well". I'll wait until the next election to see if 538 is correct about Trumps approval. They may be right and the may be wrong.....the only thing we can both be sure about is they were WRONG about the 2016 election since we have the predictions AND the final results.